1

Educating students for their future, rather than our past

London EWF 2018

Andreas SchleicherDirector for Education and Skills

Increased likelihood of positive outcomes

among adults with higher literacy skills (age 16-65)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Being Employed High wages Good to excellenthealth

Participation involunteer activities

High levels ofpolitical efficacy

High levels of trust

(scoring at Level 4/5 on PIAAC compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)

Odds ratio

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

Sin

gapo

re

4F

inla

nd

3

Japa

n

5E

sto

nia

7Ir

ela

nd

4

Ma

ca

o (

Ch

ina

) 1

2H

ong K

on

g (

Chin

a)

1

1G

erm

any 4

Slo

ven

ia 7

Kore

a

8

Sw

itzerl

and

4

Ru

ssia

5

Ne

therl

and

s

5

CA

BA

(A

rgentina

)

0P

ola

nd

9

De

nm

ark

11

Austr

alia

9

Ch

ine

se

Taip

ei 1

5B

elg

ium

7N

ew

Zeala

nd

10

Ca

nad

a

16

Spain

9N

orw

ay

9

Czech R

epu

blic

6

La

tvia

11

Sw

ede

n

6P

ort

ug

al 1

2F

rance

9

OE

CD

avera

ge

11

Icela

nd

7

Un

ite

d K

ing

dom

16

Cro

atia

9

Lithu

ania

10

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

16

Hu

nga

ry

10

Austr

ia

17

Ma

lta

2

Lu

xe

mbo

urg

12

Isra

el 6

Slo

vak R

epub

lic

11

Ita

ly

20

Gre

ece

9

Ro

man

ia

7

Mo

ldova

7B

-S-J

-G (

Chin

a)

3

6U

nite

d A

rab E

mira

tes

9C

hile

20

Bulg

aria

1

9A

lba

nia

16

Qata

r 7

Vie

t N

am

5

1M

onte

neg

ro 1

0Jord

an

1

4U

rug

uay

28

Trin

ida

d a

nd T

obag

o

24

Turk

ey 3

0G

eo

rgia

21

Co

lom

bia

25

Tha

iland

2

9F

YR

OM

5C

osta

Ric

a 3

7M

exic

o

38

Tun

isia

7

Peru

26

Bra

zil

2

9In

don

esia

32

Le

ban

on

34

Alg

eria

21

Kosovo

29

Do

min

ican

Rep

ublic

32

Level 6 Level 5Level 4 Level 3Level 2 Below Level 1bLevel 1b Level 1a

Student performance (PISA, Science, 15-year-olds, 2015)

%

Percentage of 15-year-olds not covered by the PISA sample

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

Sin

gapo

re

4F

inla

nd

3

Japa

n

5E

sto

nia

7Ir

ela

nd

4

Ma

ca

o (

Ch

ina

) 1

2H

ong K

on

g (

Chin

a)

1

1G

erm

any 4

Slo

ven

ia 7

Kore

a

8

Sw

itzerl

and

4

Ru

ssia

5

Ne

therl

and

s

5

CA

BA

(A

rgentina

)

0P

ola

nd

9

De

nm

ark

11

Austr

alia

9

Ch

ine

se

Taip

ei 1

5B

elg

ium

7N

ew

Zeala

nd

10

Ca

nad

a

16

Spain

9N

orw

ay

9

Czech R

epu

blic

6

La

tvia

11

Sw

ede

n

6P

ort

ug

al 1

2F

rance

9

OE

CD

avera

ge

11

Icela

nd

7

Un

ite

d K

ing

dom

16

Cro

atia

9

Lithu

ania

10

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

16

Hu

nga

ry

10

Austr

ia

17

Ma

lta

2

Lu

xe

mbo

urg

12

Isra

el 6

Slo

vak R

epub

lic

11

Ita

ly

20

Gre

ece

9

Ro

man

ia

7

Mo

ldova

7B

-S-J

-G (

Chin

a)

3

6U

nite

d A

rab E

mira

tes

9C

hile

20

Bulg

aria

1

9A

lba

nia

16

Qata

r 7

Vie

t N

am

5

1M

onte

neg

ro 1

0Jord

an

1

4U

rug

uay

28

Trin

ida

d a

nd T

obag

o

24

Turk

ey 3

0G

eo

rgia

21

Co

lom

bia

25

Tha

iland

2

9F

YR

OM

5C

osta

Ric

a 3

7M

exic

o

38

Tun

isia

7

Peru

26

Bra

zil

2

9In

don

esia

32

Le

ban

on

34

Alg

eria

21

Kosovo

29

Do

min

ican

Rep

ublic

32

Level 6 Level 5Level 4 Level 3Level 2 Below Level 1bLevel 1b Level 1a

Student performance (PISA, Science, 15-year-olds, 2015)

%

Percentage of 15-year-olds not covered by the PISA sample

%

683% GDP

903 bn$551% GDP

12,448 bn$

153% GDP

27,929 bn$86% GDP

402 bn$

Long-term estimated economic gains from every 15-year-old achieving at least basic skills143% GDP

3,650 bn$

• Addressing educational underperformance makes economic growth more inclusive…– The increase in average earnings from attaining universal basic skills amounts to some

4.2% across the 28 countries with universal enrolment in secondary schools.

– This increase is accompanied by a 5.2% average reduction in the achievement-induced part of the standard deviation of earnings

• …and expands the size of the economy– and thus differs from simple tax and redistribution schemes that might change income

distribution but would not add to societal output

– Policies to improve knowledge capital will also promote inclusion and a more equitable income distribution

Inclusive growth

Spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 and

science performance

HungaryCosta Rica

Chinese Taipei

Chile

Brazil

Turkey

UruguayBulgaria

Mexico

Thailand MontenegroColombia

Dominican Republic

Peru

Georgia

11.7, 411

Luxembourg

SwitzerlandNorwayAustria

Singapore

United States

United Kingdom

Malta

Sweden

Belgium

Iceland

Denmark

Finland

Netherlands

Canada

JapanSlovenia

AustraliaGermany

IrelandFranceItaly

Portugal

New Zealand

Korea Spain

PolandIsrael

Estonia

Czech Rep.

LatviaSlovak Rep.

Russia

CroatiaLithuania

R² = 0.41

R² = 0.01

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Scie

nce p

erf

orm

an

ce (

sco

re p

oin

ts)

Average spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 (in thousands USD, PPP)

Student-teacher ratios and class sizeFigure II.6.14

CABA (Argentina)

Jordan

Viet Nam

Poland

United States

Chile

Denmark

Hungary

B-S-G-J(China)

Turkey

Georgia

ChineseTaipei

Mexico

Russia

Albania

Hong Kong(China)

Japan

Belgium

Algeria

Colombia

Peru

Macao(China)

Switzerland

Malta

Dominican Republic

Netherlands

Singapore

Brazil

Kosovo

Finland

Thailand

R² = 0.25

5

10

15

20

25

30

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Stu

de

nt-

tea

ch

er

rati

o

Class size in language of instruction

High student-teacher ratios

and small class sizes

Low student-teacher ratios

and large class sizes

OECD

average

OE

CD

ave

rage

Learning time and science performance (PISA)Figure II.6.23

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Fin

land

Germ

any

Sw

itzerl

and

Japa

nE

sto

nia

Sw

ede

nN

eth

erl

and

sN

ew

Zeala

nd

Austr

alia

Czech R

epu

blic

Ma

ca

o (

Ch

ina

)U

nite

d K

ing

dom

Ca

nad

aB

elg

ium

Fra

nce

No

rwa

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loven

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ela

nd

Lu

xe

mbo

urg

Irela

nd

La

tvia

Ho

ng K

on

g (

Chin

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OE

CD

avera

ge

Ch

ine

se

Taip

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Austr

iaP

ort

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al

Uru

guay

Lithu

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Sin

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Hu

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Slo

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Cro

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Un

ite

d S

tate

sIs

rael

Bulg

aria

Kore

aR

ussia

Ita

lyG

reece

B-S

-J-G

(C

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Co

lom

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Ch

ileM

exic

oB

razil

Co

sta

Ric

aT

urk

ey

Mo

nte

neg

roP

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Qata

rT

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Un

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d A

rab E

mira

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Tun

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Do

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Rep

ublic

Sco

re p

oin

ts in

scie

nce p

er

ho

ur

of

learn

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tim

e

Hours Intended learning time at school (hours) Study time after school (hours) Score points in science per hour of total learning time

11

Digitalisation and education

Democratizing

Concentrating

Particularizing

Homogenizing

Empowering

Disempowering

Environmental

degradation

Climate change

Migration

Middle class

Polarisation

of societies

Renewable energy

Loss of

biodiversityWater and food

shortagesNatural

disasters

Financial

crisesNationalism

Democratisation

Multinational

companies

Harmonization

of values

Interdependent

markets

Trade

opennessEmerging

economies

Poverty

Ageing

Radicalisation

Tourism

Inequality

International

governance

Global

integration

The Race between Technology and Education

Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

Industrial revolution

Digital revolution

Social pain

Universal public schooling

Technology

Education

Prosperity

Social pain

Prosperity

Tasks

without

use of ICT

Tasks with

use of ICT

Non routine tasks

Routine tasks

Non routine tasks

Routine tasks

Tasks

without

use of ICT

Tasks with

use of ICT

TWO EFFECTS OF DIGITALISATION

Non routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Non routine tasks,

High use of ICT

Routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Routine tasks,

High use of ICT

Non routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Non routine tasks,

High use of ICT

Routine tasks,

Low use of ICT

Routine tasks,

High use of ICT

TWO EFFECTS OF DIGITALISATION

(C)

Creating new value connotes processes of creating, making, bringing into being and formulating; and outcomes that are innovative, fresh and original, contributing something of intrinsic positive worth. The constructs that underpin the competence are imagination, inquisitiveness, persistence, collaboration and self-discipline.

In a structurally imbalanced world, the imperative of reconciling diverse perspectives and interests, in local settings with sometimes global implications, will require young people to become adept in handling tensions, dilemmas and trade-offs. Underlying constructs are empathy, adaptability, trust.

Dealing with novelty, change, diversity and ambiguity assumes that individuals can ‘think for themselves’. This suggests a sense of responsibility, and moral and intellectual maturity, with which a person can reflect upon and evaluate their actions in the light of their experiences and personal and societal goals; what they have been taught and told; and what is right or wrong

Comparing skills of computers and adults

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Level 1 and Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4-5

Literacy Proficiency in OECD Countries (PIAAC)

Near-term

computer

capabilities

Bureaucratic Look-up

Devolved Look-outward

Delivered wisdom

User-generated wisdom

Recognising both students and adults as resources for the co-creation of communities, for the design

of learning and for the success of students

The past was divided

Teachers and content divided by subjects and student destinations

Schools designed to keep students inside, and the rest of the world outside

The future is integratedIntegrated: Emphasising integration of subjects, integration of

students and integration of learning contexts

Connected: with real-world contexts, and permeable to the rich resources in the community

Less subject-based, more project-based

Curriculum centered

Learner centred

Uniformity

Diversity

Embracing diversity with differentiated pedagogical practices

Standardisation and ConformityStandardisation and compliance lead students to be

educated in batches of age, following the same standard curriculum, all assessed at the same time.

Ingenious

Building instruction from student passions and capacities, helping students personalise their learning and

assessment in ways that foster engagement and talents.

Learning a placeSchools as technological islands, that is technology was deployed

mostly to support existing practices for efficiency gains

Learning an activityTechnologies liberating learning from past conventions and connect

learners in new and powerful ways. The past was interactive, the future is participative

Administrative control and accountability

Professional forms of work organisation

Idiosyncratic policies

Alignment of policies

Some students learn at high levels

All students learn at high levels

Low math performance

High math performance

Mathematics performanceof the 10% most disadvantaged

American 15-year-olds (~Mexico)

Mathematics performanceof the 10% most privileged

American 15-year-olds (~Japan)

Poverty is not destiny: PISA math performance by decile of social background

PIS

A m

ath

emat

ics

pe

rfo

rman

ce

When fast gets really fast, being slow to adapt makes you really slow

The changes in the demands in our societies have vastly outpaced the structural capacity of our current

governance systems to respond

This may be the last train leaving the station

52

52 Thank you

Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org– All publications

– The complete micro-level database

Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org

Twitter: SchleicherEDU

and remember:

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion