Epiphany Learning Webinars | Introduction to Business Simulations and Games for Learning

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Introduction to Business Simulations for Learning

Facilitator: Ajay Dasgupta

Competition | Winning | Learning

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Monday, April 10, 2023

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Setting The Stage for Business Simulations

How we make decisions

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Choices We Make


Imagine that a country is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternatives programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

Choose an option from below

1. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

2. If Program B is adopted, there is one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.

Which of the two programs would you favour?

From Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky – Choices, Values and Frames

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Choices We Make


Imagine that a country is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternatives programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

Choose an option from below

1. If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die.

2. If Program D is adopted, there is one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.

Which of the two programs would you favour?


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Choices We Make


In experiments run by Kahneman and Tversky, Most people selected options A and D (Did you as well?)

The outcome of Program A, B are indistinguishable from outcome of Program C and D. However, people often chose Program A in Question 1 and Program D in Question 2


Program A Risk Averse

Program D Risk Taking

The choices seems to be more heuristic (thumb rule) in nature.Be risk averse when you have a gain and risk taking when you are about to incur a loss.

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Choices We Make


“The reliance on heuristic causes predictable biases (systematic errors) in judgments and predictions.”Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, fast and slow

So where does this takes us?

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Decision Making In A Complex World

An increasingly complex world

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It’s A Complex World Out There


V-U-C-A

http://beyondplm.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/complexity2.jpg

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It’s A Complex World Out There


• V = Volatility. The nature and dynamics of change, and the nature and speed of change forces and change catalysts.

• U = Uncertainty. The lack of predictability, the prospects for surprise, and the sense of awareness and understanding of issues and events.

• C = Complexity. The multiplex of forces, the confounding of issues and the chaos and confusion that surround an organization.

• A = Ambiguity. The haziness of reality, the potential for misreads, and the mixed meanings of conditions; cause-and-effect confusion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictability

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surprise_(emotion)

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So We Got Two Things


• We are programmed to take decisions based on the heuristics that we build

• The world outside is getting more complex and several problems need more thought and thinking

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity

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What Do Managers Do When Faced With Problems?


• Fight – Need to do something quick and fast

• Flight – Someone else is going to solve it

• Freeze – I don’t know what to do

• Flow – I am in control, I am enjoying it and I can work it out

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What We Can Learn From Other Industries - Aviation


Pilots receiving simulator training

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What Can We Learn From Other Industries - Military


http://www.army.mil/article/11936/History_of_Military_gaming/

Sand Table simulations in military training

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What Can We Learn From Other Industries - Medicine


Cybram 001 simulator helps doctors practice brain surgery without risking lives

http://www.engadget.com/2012/04/18/cybram-001-brain-surgery-simulator/

Simulated training for doctors

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Business Simulations in Learning and Training

How we make decisions

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Decision Making In The Real World?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:OODA.Boyd.svg

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What Do We Have For Managers?


Business simulations allow learners to:

1. Observe data and information from the environment

2. Orient themselves to the information

3. Decide from options based on logic and analysis

4. Act on decisions and receive immediate feedback

The loop repeats itself

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What Do We Have For Managers?


Explore 2 Business Games

• http://www.coolmath-games.com/lemonade/

• http://forio.com/sim-store/demos/big-picture-marketing-strategy.html

Observe the OODA loop as you explore these simulations

http://www.coolmath-games.com/lemonade/

http://www.coolmath-games.com/lemonade/

http://forio.com/sim-store/demos/big-picture-marketing-strategy.html

http://forio.com/sim-store/demos/big-picture-marketing-strategy.html

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The Power of Business Simulations

Simulations provide an environment in which learners can take critical decisions in a safe environment and receive feedback on their decisions almost immediately. This facilitates active exploration of relationships and inter-connectedness of components in a system.

In simulations, making mistakes is a norm that leads to insights and reflections.


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Decision Making and Feedback

Lecture

Case Studies

Business

Simulations

Live

Projects

Hig

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Low High

Assignments

Learners apply knowledge and make decisions. Feedback is immediate.

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How Simulations Work?


Learner’s Mental Model

Reality

• Active exploration of phenomenon and relationships

• Challenge and test mental models

• Experiment in simple settings

• Establish cause and effect relationships

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Simulations and Games


Simulation games

CompetitionCooperation

RulesParticipants

Roles

A model of reality

Simulations Games

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Feedback is Embedded Into Games


From – Enterprise Games, Using Game Mechanics to Build a Better BusinessMichael Hugos, O’REILLY Publication

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Business Simulations and Learning

“While case method teaching is a wonderful way to examine theories or frameworks statically, simulations give students a temporal dimension, an opportunity to experience outcomes that change based on their inputs over time. Students get the tacit experience of making mistakes, learning from those mistakes, and then refining their decision making.”


Professor Willy Shih of Harvard Business School

+People to Know

http://drfd.hbs.edu/fit/public/facultyInfo.do?facInfo=ovr&facId=194874

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Visit – www.EpiphanyLearning.co.in

Join Us

http://www.epiphanylearning.co.in/

Epiphany LearningLearning | Talent Management | Change ManagementImage Courtesy: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jsGpaFpcmKs/Tw8Av8ywKxI/AAAAAAAAAwQ/3c_-hOiq-_0/s1600/stock-market-today-results.jpg

Introduction to Business Simulations for Learning

Facilitator: Ajay Dasgupta

Thank You!

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Epiphany Learning Webinars | Introduction to Business Simulations and Games for Learning