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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968 Glyphosate Competitiveness Analysis in China Researched & Prepared by: Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd Guangzhou, P. R. China July 2008 Copyright by Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd (P. R. China) Any publication, distribution or copying of the content in this report is prohibited. Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968 Email: [email protected]

Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

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"This research is an extension of CCM's market research report on The Future of Glyphosate Industry in China. Many talent consultants in CCM spent one year to work out this masterpiece. Glyphosate has been in a leading position of herbicides in the world in the past few years; it is estimated that the global consumption of glyphosate is over 600kts at present and will increase by CAGR of over 12%. China, now the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world, has glyphosate capacity accounting for more than 40% of the global total. With the output expected to reach about 280kts and the export volume 250kts in 2008, China’s glyphosate supply and price will have great impacts on the global market. Since February 2007, China's glyphosate price has been surging, from the average price of about RMB34,000/t in February to RMB42,000/t as of September 2007. However, this is far from the end of the price rise. The price has kept soaring, from RMB58,000/t at the end of 2007 to the unbelievably record high, RMB95,000~100,000/t as of May 2008. But in 2006, the average price was only about RMB26,000/t. Attracted by the huge market potential and the promising prospects of glyphosate, more and more domestic enterprises are busy either expanding their production capacities, or setting up new glyphosate production lines. The global production capacity of glyphosate is shifting to China and China has become the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world with a capacity of 304,900t/a in 2007, accounting for more than one third of the global productivity. The output and export volume of glyphosate in China reached 187kt and 165kt respectively in 2007. It is estimated that the total capacity of glyphosate in China will reach 630,900 tonnes to the end 2008, based on the expanding plans of the glyphosate players in China. Then why the production capacity of glyphosate technical is concentrating into China and where the competitiveness of China’s glyphosate industry lies in? Whether most glyphosate producers in the domestic market undoubtedly earn considerable profit? Where its price will go next? What will influence China’s glyphosate industry and how this industry will develop in the future? … In this research, CCM will give a detailed analysis on glyphosate industry in China to help the readers understand in depth the competitiveness of China’s glyphosate industry, and to help the readers, mainly the decision maker to decide: whether is right to invest glyphosate in China, where to pay attention and how to access this market. - Introduction Because of the expanding planting of genetically modified crops and the fast growth of the agriculture in developing countries, Glyphosate develops rapidly these years. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of glyphosate will keep at 14% in the next few years in the world, and the global demand of glyphosate will reach 900,000 tonnes in 2010. Attracted by the huge market potential and the promising prospects of glyphosate, more and more domestic enterprises are busy either expanding their production capacities, or setting up new glyphosate production lines. It is estimated that the global production capacity of glyphosate will shift to China in the future and the gap between demand and supply will be filled in the next two years. The technology development is also quite rapid in China . There are two different pathways of glyphosate production in China : aminoacetic acid (AEA) pathway and iminodiacetic acid (IDA) pathway, about 60% of the domestic glyphosate producers take the AEA pathway and the rest 40% take the IDA route. AEA pathway, as a traditional pathway in China , is widely applied in China 's glyphosate production, because of the easy availability of raw material and mature technology. Many glyphosate producers are close to glycine manufacturers, which means lower transport costs and guaranteed glycine supply . But th

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Page 1: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

Glyphosate Competitiveness Analysis in China

Researched & Prepared by:

Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd

Guangzhou, P. R. China

July 2008

Copyright by Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd (P. R. China) Any publication, distribution or copying of the content in this report is prohibited. Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968 Email: [email protected]

Page 2: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

Description:

This research is an extension of CCM's market research report on The Future of Glyphosate Industry in China. Many talent consultants in CCM spent one year to work out this masterpiece. Glyphosate has been in a leading position of herbicides in the world in the past few years; it is estimated that the global consumption of glyphosate is over 600kts at present and will increase by CAGR of over 12%. China, now the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world, has glyphosate capacity accounting for more than 40% of the global total. With the output expected to reach about 280kts and the export volume 250kts in 2008, China’s glyphosate supply and price will have great impacts on the global market. Since February 2007, China's glyphosate price has been surging, from the average price of about RMB34,000/t in February to RMB42,000/t as of September 2007. However, this is far from the end of the price rise. The price has kept soaring, from RMB58,000/t at the end of 2007 to the unbelievably record high, RMB95,000~100,000/t as of May 2008. But in 2006, the average price was only about RMB26,000/t. Attracted by the huge market potential and the promising prospects of glyphosate, more and more domestic enterprises are busy either expanding their production capacities, or setting up new glyphosate production lines. The global production capacity of glyphosate is shifting to China and China has become the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world with a capacity of 304,900t/a in 2007, accounting for more than one third of the global productivity. The output and export volume of glyphosate in China reached 187kt and 165kt respectively in 2007. It is estimated that the total capacity of glyphosate in China will reach 630,900 tonnes to the end 2008, based on the expanding plans of the glyphosate players in China. Then why the production capacity of glyphosate technical is concentrating into China and where the competitiveness of China’s glyphosate industry lies in? Whether most glyphosate producers in the domestic market undoubtedly earn considerable profit? Where its price will go next? What will influence China’s glyphosate industry and how this industry will develop in the future? … In this research, CCM will give a detailed analysis on glyphosate industry in China to help the readers understand in depth the competitiveness of China’s glyphosate industry, and to help the readers, mainly the decision maker to decide: whether is right to invest glyphosate in China, where to pay attention and how to access this market. - Introduction Because of the expanding planting of genetically modified crops and the fast growth of the agriculture in developing countries, Glyphosate develops rapidly these years. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of glyphosate will keep at 14% in the next few years in the world, and the global demand of

Page 3: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

glyphosate will reach 900,000 tonnes in 2010. Attracted by the huge market potential and the promising prospects of glyphosate, more and more domestic enterprises are busy either expanding their production capacities, or setting up new glyphosate production lines. It is estimated that the global production capacity of glyphosate will shift to China in the future and the gap between demand and supply will be filled in the next two years. The technology development is also quite rapid in China . There are two different pathways of glyphosate production in China : aminoacetic acid (AEA) pathway and iminodiacetic acid (IDA) pathway, about 60% of the domestic glyphosate producers take the AEA pathway and the rest 40% take the IDA route. AEA pathway, as a traditional pathway in China , is widely applied in China 's glyphosate production, because of the easy availability of raw material and mature technology. Many glyphosate producers are close to glycine manufacturers, which means lower transport costs and guaranteed glycine supply . But the AEA pathway consumes a lot of alkali to recycle the solvent and catalyst, which increases the equipment expenditure and utility. What's more, the product quality by this pathway is not as good as that by IDA pathway. So in recent years, the AEA pathway is partly replaced by the IDA pathway. However, some glyphosate producers adopting AEA pathway have innovated this pathway and made better use of their by-products, so that the production cost can be reduced. Although the raw material diethanolamine is mainly imported from some overseas countries and its price is rising all the time, IDA pathway is widely applied in most newly-built glyphosate projects in China these years, because of the comparative advantages in yield, production cost, environment protection and investment, Recently Anhui Huaxing Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. researched and developed a new Hydrocyanic acid-IDA-Glyphosate process, which extracts hydrocyanic acid from the nature gas. When the production line is put into operation, the cost can be reduced by RMB3,000 per tonne than the current level. What is the detailed situation of the competitiveness of AEA pathway and IDA pathway? In what aspects are they competitive? It is claimed by many people that the hydrocyanic acid process will be widely applied and used in the domestic market, and the AEA pathway will be replaced by the IDA pathway and the IDA pathway will be the dominant glyphosate producing pathway in the future. Is that true? Why? If it is true, how long will the process of this substitution take? If it isn't, what are the factors hampering this substitution? CCM will give a detail analysis in order to answer all these questions in this report. Although the output is growing all the time, the global price of glyphosate has been rising. One tonne of glyphosate was priced only at RMB28,000 last year, but the price has soared to nearly RMB50,000/t at present, that is, November 2007. The main reason for the price hike of glyphosate this year is the current demand and supply situation. Monsanto, a world renowned company, also the largest glyphosate producer in the world, has stopped investing in its glyphosate production capacity expansion, and has started to buy raw materials from China for their glyphosate production. Meanwhile, the output from the domestic glyphosate producers can not satisfy the huge demand in the overseas market. All these factors contribute to the tense supply and high price of glyphosate.

Page 4: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

With the price hike of glyphosate, more and more profit has been gained by domestic glyphosate producers. The net profit was once several times of the production cost this year, although the current production cost is much higher than that in the past. What is the actual cost structure of glyphosate in active producers by different pathways? How does the production cost influence domestic glyphosate production and sales? In this report CCM will give an in-depth analysis of the production technology and production cost in some major glyphosate producers. In recent years, the Chinese government imposes stricter and stricter rules on the agrochemicals industry and environment protection, and the production cost of glyphosate including raw materials, manufacturing cost and management cost is rising all the time. These factors will inevitably contribute much to the development of glyphosate industry in China . Under such circumstances, it needs to find out: - What factors influence the development of glyphosate industry, especially the price and profit of glyphosate? - In the future, which pathway will be the dominant route in glyphosate production in China , and why? Will AEA pathway be replaced by IDA pathway in the future? How is the prospect of hydrocyanic acid process? - What is the price trend? - During the current and future production capacity expansion by domestic producers, whether most glyphosate producers in the domestic market undoubtedly earn considerable profit at the moment? How do policy adjustment, production cost rising and other factors influence the development of profit in the future? Will the profit keep stable in the next few years? - Which producer has the largest competitive advantage in China now? - How does the prospect of glyphosate industry in the future? CCM will give you a professional analysis to the above questions in this benchmarking research. - What is the aim of this research? CCM's research on glyphosate competitiveness analysis in China offers a comprehensive guide to the current technology situation and production cost structures of Chinese manufacturers. 1) Analyze the factors influencing the competitiveness landscape of China’s glyphosate industry, such as supply and demand dynamics, production pathways & technology level, raw materials supply, macro-economic situation and government policies, to understand where Chinese glyphosate competitiveness lies. 2) Research systematically the different processes for glyphosate production and the current production situation of the Chinese producers in an effort to understand their production cost structures, how the different production pathways compete with each other, and how the technology will evolve. 3) Set up model for glyphosate cost in China and make comparison to different cost structures of the major producers in China. 4) Carry out comparison between the competitiveness of AEA pathway and IDA pathway, and analyze the competitiveness landscape of glyphosate production in China. 5) Identify the key factors influencing the price of glyphosate and the internal relationship between the

Page 5: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

key factors. And then set up glyphosate price model. 6) Based on the work mentioned above, make a forecast on the competitiveness of China’s glyphosate in the next five years. - Why to purchase the research? 1) To understand the current technology level, cost structure, price and profit in Chinese glyphosate market. 2) To understand the competitive landscape of Chinese glyphosate producers. 3) To forecast the future development of glyphosate industry in China . 4) To help make decisions: whether is right to invest glyphosate in China ? - Who should buy this research? 1) Glyphosate producers paying close attention to the Chinese technology level, cost structure, price and profit of major competitors in China ; 2) Glyphosate buyers who purchase glyphosate from Chinese manufacturers; 3) Glyphosate investors who plan to enter China to build new plants; 4) Technology suppliers who own the latest or best production and processing technology, and want to transfer their technology to Chinese glyphosate producers; 5) Research institutes who desire to know current technology level and research status in China ; 6) Analysts and consultants trying to gain insight into China 's fast-growing market for glyphosate If you are interested in this research: Please Contact Us for more information about this research!

Main content:

No. Content Page Executive summary 15 Introduction and methodology 37 I Introduction to this Work 40

II Factors influencing the competitiveness landscape of China’s glyphosate industry

42

II-1 Government policy 42 II-1.1 Promotion of genetically modified crops 42 II-1.2 Promotion of no-tillage land 43 II-1.3 Environmental and energy policy 44 II-1.4 Policy on import and export 47 II-1.5 Support on some important enterprises 48 II-1.6 Some policies for foreign invested enterprises 49 II-1.7 Other unfavourable policies for glyphosate investment 50 II-2 Economic environment for the development of glyphosate industry 51 II-2.1 China economy continuously develops with fast growth rate 51

Page 6: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

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II-2.2 Income of Chinese peasants grows continuously and stably 52 II-2.3 Low labor cost 54 II-2.4 More population to feed but reducing peasants and shrinking cultivated land 56 II-2.5 Serious Inflation 57 II-2.6 RMB appreciation 59 II-2.7 Growth rate of export 61 II-2.8 Shortage of energy and raw material 63 II-2.9 Great demand for bio-energy 68 II-3 Situation of Chinese pesticide 70 II-3.1 Output and demand of pesticide 70 II-3.2 Adjustment of pesticide 72 II-3.3 Competition pattern of pesticide industry in China 73 II-3.4 Technology level and characters of pesticide industry 76 II-3.5 Profit tendency and the reason 77 II-3.6 Trend of pesticide industry 77 II-3.7 Advantageous and disadvantageous factors of pesticide industry development 78 II-3.8 Major obstacles of entering pesticide industry 79 II-4 Crop planting situation in the world 80 II-4.1 Conventional crop planting situation in the world 80 II-4.2 Planting situation of GM crops in the world 81 II-5 Crop planting situation in China 86 II-5.1 Conventional crop planting situation in China 86 II-5.2 Planting situation of GM crops in China 88 II-6 Entry Barriers of glyphosate industry 91 II-6.1 Policy 91 II-6.2 Capital 92 II-6.3 Production scale 92 II-6.4 Anti-dumping and technical barrier 92 II-6.5 Technology 93 II-6.6 Export channel 94 II-6.7 Environment barriers 95 II-6.8 No GLP lab and hard to register in other countries 95 II-6.9 High dependence on overseas market 95 II-7 Supply of glyphosate in China 96 II-7.1 Glyphosate technical 96 II-7.2 Glyphosate formulation 98 II-7.2.1 Overview of formulations species 98 II-7.2.2 Introduction of special formulations 98 II-7.3 PMIDA 100 II-8 Demand for Chinese glyphosate 104 II-8.1 Global demand for China’s glyphosate 104 II-8.1.1 Overview of global glyphosate production 104 II-8.1.2 Role of China’s glyphosate in global markets 104 II-8.2 Domestic demand for glyphosate 107

Page 7: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

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II-8.2.1 Overview of Chinese glyphosate technical consumption 107 II-8.2.2 Glyphosate formulations use in China 109 II-8.2.2.1 Regional distribution of glyphosate use in China 109 II-8.2.2.2 Use situation of glyphosate formulations in each major crops 110 II-8.2.2.3 Use pattern of glyphosate formulations 111 II-8.2.2.4 Others 112 II-9 Supply situation of glyphosate raw materials in China 113 II-9.1 Raw materials of AEA pathway 114 II-9.1.1 Glycine 114 II-9.1.1.1 Introduction 114 II-9.1.1.2 Supply situation of glycine in China 115 II-9.1.2 Yellow phosphorous 122 II-9.1.3 Paraformaldehyde 126 II-9.1.4 Dimethyl phosphite 128 II-9.2 Raw materials of DEA route 130 II-9.2.1 Diethanolamine 130 II-9.2.2 Formaldehyde 135 II-9.3 Raw materials of IDAN route 138 II-9.3.1 IDAN 138 II-10 Production pathways & technology level 143 II-10.1 Summary of production, output by different pathways 143 II-10.2 Introduction to different pathways and their levels 147 II-10.2.1 AEA pathway 147 II-10.2.1.1 Description 147 II-10.2.1.2 Development of AEA pathway in China 148 II-10.2.1.3 Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway 151 II-10.2.1.4 Advantages and problems 151 II-10.2.2 DEA route 152 II-10.2.2.1 Description 152 II-10.2.2.2 Development of DEA route in China 154 II-10.2.2.3 Theoretical consumption of raw materials for DEA route 156 II-10.2.2.4 Advantages and problems 156 II-10.2.3 IDAN route 157 II-10.2.3.1 Description 157 II-10.2.3.2 Development of IDAN route in China 158 II-10.2.3.3 Theoretical consumption of raw materials for IDAN route 159 II-10.2.3.4 Advantages and problems 159 II-10.2.4 Comparison of different pathways 160 II-10.3 Glyphosate formulation producing technology 160 II-10.3.1 Description 160 II-10.3.2 Development of glyphosate formulation producing technology in China 161 II-10.3.3 Theoretical models for glyphosate formulations 163

II-11 Other factors influencing the competitiveness landscape of China’s glyphosate industry

166

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II-11.1 New situation of glyphosate 166 II-11.2 Marketing strategies 168 II-11.3 Competitions with other herbicides and foreign glyphosate 168 III Analysis of major glyphosate producers in China 171 III-1 Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Industrial Group Co., Ltd. 171 III-1.1 Introduction 171 III-1.2 Financials 172 III-1.3 Products 174 III-1.4 Existing capacity and expanding plan 175 III-1.5 Glyphosate 176 III-1.5.1 Production and market situation of glyphosate 176 III-1.5.2 Cost analysis of glyphosate 180 III-2 Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemical Co., Ltd. 182 III-2.1 Introduction 182 III-2.2 Financials 183 III-2.3 Products 185 III-2.4 Existing capacity and expanding plan 187 III-2.5 Glyphosate 187 III-2.5.1 Production and market situation of glyphosate 187 III-2.5.2 Cost analysis of glyphosate 189 III-3 Anhui Huaxing Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. 192 III-3.1 Introduction 192 III-3.2 Financials 193 III-3.3 Products 195 III-3.4 Existing capacity and expanding plan 195 III-3.5 Glyphosate 196 III-3.5.1 Production and market situation of glyphosate 196 III-3.5.2 Cost analysis of glyphosate 198 III-4 Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Group Co., Ltd. 200 III-4.1 Introduction 200 III-4.2 Financials 201 III-4.3 Products 203 III-4.4 Existing capacity and expanding plan 204 III-4.5 Glyphosate 205 III-4.5.1 Production and market situation of glyphosate 205 III-4.5.2 Cost analysis of glyphosate 208 III-5 Hubei Sanonda Co., Ltd. 210 III-5.1 Introduction 210 III-5.2 Financials 211 III-5.3 Products 213 III-5.4 Existing capacity and expanding plan 214 III-5.5 Glyphosate 215 III-5.5.1 Production and market situation of glyphosate 215 III-5.5.2 Cost analysis of glyphosate 216

Page 9: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

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III-6 SWOT analysis of the five glyphosate manufactures 218 IV Competitiveness landscape of glyphosate production in China 219 IV-1 Competitiveness of AEA pathway 219 IV-2 Competitiveness of IDA pathway 221 IV-2.1 DEA route 221 IV-2.2 IDAN route 223

IV-3 Comparison between the competitiveness of AEA pathway and IDA pathway and conclusion

224

V Index model for glyphosate price 226 V-1 Influencing factors for glyphosate price 227 V-1.1 Production cost 227 V-1.2 Supply/demand situation 228 V-2 Price Index model for glyphosate 231 V-3 Identification 233 VI Forecast on the competitiveness of China’s glyphosate in the next five years 235 VI-1 Research hot points 235 VI-2 Development trend of pathways 238 VI-3 Change trend of production cost 239 VI-3.1 Change trend of some major raw materials 239 - DMP 240 - Glycine 241 - DEA 243 - IDAN 244 VI-3.2 Change trend of production cost 245 VI-4 Change trend of supply & demand situation 247 - Operation rate 247 - Export dependence 247 - Ratio of total export to glyphosate technical export 248 VI-5 Glyphosate price fluctuating trend 248 VI-6 Estimation on profit in Chinese manufacturers 249 VII Conclusion and commercial opportunities 251 VII-1 Conclusion 251 VII-2 Commercial opportunities 252

Executive summary:

The competitiveness landscape of China’s glyphosate industry is embodied on the following factors, such as government policy, economic environment, crops planting situation, entry barriers, demand and supply, raw materials supply and technology level. ……….. - Production pathways & technology level

Page 10: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

There are two pathways for glyphosate production in China including IDA pathway and AEA pathway. According to the difference of raw materials, IDA pathway can also be subdivided into two categories, which are DEA route and IDAN route. Because of its simple flowchart and mature technology, AEA pathway is easy to be mastered by most companies, plus the easy availability of raw materials in China, the AEA pathway, though having been eliminated in the international market, is still being widely used in China’s glyphosate industry. However, the percentage of capacity and output of glyphosate by AEA pathway has been reducing all the time these years. Being complained for the serious pollution in the production, many large-scale glyphosate producers adopting AEA pathway in China have spent much energy and money improving this method and have made great progress. The main breakthroughs can be described as follows: 1. Optimizing the process and improving the yield rate. 2. Adopting continuous production process and introducing advanced equipments 3. Adopting DCS control system to realize optimized operation 4. Reclaiming the by-products such as methylene dichloride and dimethoxymethane 5. Reclaiming the raw materials …….. IDA pathway has been developing rapidly in recent years in China for its advantages of low cost, environmentally friendly performance and relatively not so huge investment. As of May 2008, there are xx companies adopting the IDA pathway, among which, xx adopting DEA route and xx adopting IDAN route. The typical companies include XXX, XXX, XXX, XXX and XXX etc. As the supply of the raw materials DEA and IDAN are quite tense in China, the capacity enlargement of the glyphosate producers adopting IDA pathway has been affected. However, some DEA and IDAN producers have enlarged their capacities and output. Therefore, the tense supply of these raw materials might be relieved in a short term. The advantages of IDA pathway will be exhibited fully in China. ……….

Character of CCM' Report:

The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities, and presented in a logic way.

Sample pages:

Page 11: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

II-10.2.1.2 Development of AEA pathway in China After several years’ development, AEA pathway has made great progress in operation process and equipment, the technology has become mature and the quality of the product also has become quite stable. The main breakthroughs can be described as follows: ………. Table II-10.2.1.2-1 Comparison between continuous hydrolysis process and batch hydrolysis process in Nantong Jiangshan

Style of reactors Item

Batch hydrolysis process Continuous hydrolysis process

Annual output/tonne XXXXXX XXXXXX

Reactor number X X

Operator number XX XX

Production efficiency of each reactor /(t/ a) XXXXXXX XXXXX

Productivity per worker (t/ a) XXXXX XX

II-10.2.1.3 Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway ………. Table II-10.2.1.3-1 Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway in May 2008

Raw materials Unit consumption

(t/t glyphosate)

Unit price of May. 2008

(RMB/t glyphosate)

Unit Cost(RMB/t

glyphosate)

1 Glycine(Industrial grade) XXXXX 35,000.00 XXXXXXXXX

2 Paraformaldehyde (37%) XXXXX 8,730.00 XXXXXXXX

3 Triethylamine (99.5%) XXXXX 13,000.00 XXXXXXXX

4 Methanol (95%) XXXXX 4,000.00 XXXXXXXX

5 Dimethyl ester XXXXX 40,000.00 XXXXXXXXX

6 Hydrochloric acid (30%) XXXXX 750.00 XXXXXX

Total XXXXXXXXX

……….

Page 12: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

II-10.2.4 Comparison of different routes Table II-10.2.4-1 Comparison of different routes

Routes Strong points Shortcomings Current situation Developin

g trend

Typical

company

AEA

pathway

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXX

XXXXXX

XXXXXX

XXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXX

DEA route

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX X

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXX

XXX

XXXXXXX

XXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXX

IDAN

route

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXX

XXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXX

XXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXX

XXXXXXX

Based on the above discussion, we conclude that the AEA pathway is still competitive in China. But as the supply of DEA and IDAN becomes sufficient and their quality is as good as that from some overseas countries, the IDA route is sure to have a larger market share in the future. II-10.3.3 Theoretical models for glyphosate formulations ………. Table II-10.3.3-1 Raw materials consumption of 10% glyphosate-ammonium Raw materials Unit consumption(t/t) Price(RMB/t) Unit Cost(RMB/t) Mother liquid(4%)(1) X 400 XXX

Additive XXXX 8,000 XX

Glyphosate technical(95%) XXXXXXX 90,000 XXXXX

Ammonia(3) XXX 800 XX

Total XXXXX

Page 13: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

II-11.2 Marketing strategies Table II-11.2-1 Marketing strategies of Chinese glyphosate industry

Strategy Content

Focus on export XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Promoting Brand

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

Promoting high

content

formulation

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Cooperation XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Perfecting sales

network

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

OEM XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

III-1.5.2 Cost analysis of glyphosate - Production cost Table III-1.5.2-1 Estimation on raw material costs of glyphosate in XXXXXX in May 2008

Unit

consumption (t/t)Price (RMB/t)

Unit Cost

(RMB/t glyphosate)

Glycine(Industrial grade) XXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX

Paraformaldehyde (96%) XXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX

Triethylamine (99.5%) XXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX

Methanol (95%) XXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX

Dimethyl ester XXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX

Hydrochloric acid (31%) XXXX XXXXXX XXXXXX

Raw materials

cost

Total XXXXXXXXX

Page 14: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

Table III-1.5.2-2 Estimation on manufacturing cost of glyphosate in XXXXXX in May 2008 No Item Unit Cost (RMB / t glyphosate)

1 Raw materials cost XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

2 Utilities XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3 Labour XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

4 Package XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

5 Maintenance XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

6 Depreciation XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Table III-1.5.2-3 Estimation on management costs of glyphosate in XXXXXX in May 2008 No. Item Unit Cost (RMB /t glyphosate)

1 Salary cost of management staffs and other auxiliary staffs XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

2 Materials cost for management XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3 Interest on loan XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

4 Transportation cost XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

5 Amortisation of intangible asset XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

6 Distribution cost XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

7 Cost for three-waste treatment XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Table III-1.5.2-4 Estimation on production costs of glyphosate in XXXXXX in May 2008

In 2008

No Item Unit Cost (RMB / t glyphosate)

1 Manufacturing cost XXXXXXXXXXXX

2 Management costs XXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total XXXXXXXXXXXX

- Profit Table III-1.5.2-5 Profit estimation of glyphosate in XXXXXX in May 2008

Item RMB/t glyphosate Remark

1.Total income XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Price XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Other income XXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

2.Expense XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total production costs XXXXXXXX

Taxes XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3.Gross profit XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

4.Profit tax XXXXXXXXXXXXX XXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

5.Profit after tax XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXX

Page 15: Glyphosate competitiveness analysis in china

IV-3 Comparison between the competitiveness of AEA pathway and IDA pathway and conclusion Table IV-3-1 Competitiveness comparison between the AEA pathway and IDA pathway

Route Process Theoretical costRaw material

supply Current application Bottleneck

AEA pathway

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXX

DEA route

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXX

IDAN route

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXX

Figure V-1 Price model of glyphosate technical

Production cost of each route

Output of each routeProduction cost

Capacity

Import

Market Demand

Accidents

Export

Output

Demand & Supply intensity

Price

Others

InputOutput

Price Model

All the original data in this segment are mainly sourced from CCM’s database and custom’s data……….