Immigration to the U.S.: Myths, Trends, Turning Points and the New Reality

Hispanic Trends Project


Immigration to the U.S.:Myths, Trends, Turning Points & the New RealityJeffrey S. PasselSenior Demographer

Dean’s Distinguished Lecture Series

University of Texas at San Antonio, College of Public Policy

San Antonio, TX—14 November 2013


Myth and Reality

• Immigration is an All-Time High– Yes & No – Depends on Measure

• US has NOT Been Welcoming– “Rose-Colored” View of the Past

• Today is NOT that Different– Has Taken Generations for Full

Acceptance

• Changes have been Rapid– Very Different from US in 1950, 1970 or even 1990


• Demographic Background– How many? What kind? Trends

– From where? To where?

• What Are Our Policies?– Admission & Exclusion

– Integration & Impact Mitigation

• What Are the Immigrants Like?– Education & Income

– Families & Children

– Factors Behind Migration

Immigration Today


BIG Changes Recently

• Unauthorized Immigration has Stopped– Unauthorized Population Growth Reversed in ’07

– Mexican Flows have REVERSED (new)

– Lull or Fundamental Change??

• Total Immigrant Population Growth– Overall Growth Basically Stopped ‘07 to mid-’10

– Legal Immigration Levels Still High

– Huge Drop in New Unauthorized

– New Asian Arrivals exceed Latinos

• Unauthorized Population = Families w/ Kids– Almost Half of Adults are Parents

• Geographic Dispersal Stopped in ’07– Numbers Constant in “New Destinations” through ‘11


Context & History


• Large Total Increases, Now Stable– Shift to Latin America & Asia by ‘70s

• New Flows are Unauthorized (by ‘80s)– Much More Heavily Latin American

– In-Flow Now Way, Way Down

• Responsive to Origin & Destination– Job Availability in U.S.

– Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere

• New Destinations Emerged– Driven by Unauthorized (Mexican)

Migration Flows to U.S.


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

19th Century:

Increases and Fluctuations

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

8.8

3.7

5.2

* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens

Additional*

Europe/Canada (Legal)

All Other (Legal)

Millions of ImmigrantsArriving


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

1910s & 1920s:

War plus Restrictions Declines

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

4.1

5.8

3.7

5.2


Additional*


All Other (Legal)


8.8


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

1930s & 1940s:

Depression & WarNo One Comes

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.13.7

5.2

1.0


Additional*


All Other (Legal)


5.8

8.8


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

1950s & 1960s:

Post-WarImmigration Starts Again

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.13.7

5.2

3.3

1.0

2.5


Additional*


All Other (Legal)


5.8

8.8


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

1970s to 1990s:Increased Numbers & New

Origins

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.13.7

5.24.5

1.0

2.5

6.0


Additional*


All Other (Legal)


8.0

3.3

5.8

8.8


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

Late 20th Century:

Unauthorized Immigration BOOMS

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.1

6.0

9.0

3.7

5.2

7

3.8

1.0

2.5

10* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens

Additional*


All Other (Legal)


14-16+(est.)


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

21st Century:

Current Legal Flows Still High

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.1

6.0

9.0

3.7

5.2

7

3.8

1.0

2.5

10* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens

Additional*


All Other (Legal)


14-16+(est.)

10.5


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

21st Century:

Current Total Flows Still High

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.1

6.0

9.0

3.7

5.2

7

3.8

1.0

2.5

10

14+?


Additional*


All Other (Legal)


14-16+(est.)


1820s

1840s

1860s

1880s

1900s

1920s

1940s

1960s

1980s

2000s

Legal Immigrants per 1,000 population

Undocumented per 1,000 population

21st Century:

Immigration RATES Below Highs

1.3

7.1

4.2

6.6

12.1

8.4

0.6

4.0

7.2

11.1

5.9

10.5

3.7

2.2

0.6

1.6

4.8

6.4

5.2

Immigrants during Decadeper 1,000 Population

at Beginning of Decade


Multiple Goals of Immigration Policy

• Economic—Competitiveness,

Jobs

• Social—Family Unification

• Moral—Human Rights

• Cultural—Pluralism

• Legal—Sovereignty, Security,

& Rule of Law

* Share of 2010 Admissions

(14%)*

(66%)

(14%)

(5%)

(<1%)


Selected Immigration Laws

• Exclusions–1885 -- Chinese

–1907 -- Japanese

–1917 -- Asians & “Illiterates”

• S. & E. Europe Quotas & Limits–1921, 1924, 1952

• Repeal of Discriminatory Quotas–1965 -- Eastern Hemisphere

–1976 -- Western Hemisphere


Revised Immigration Laws

• Refugee Act of 1980– International, ideological standards

– Outside preference system

• Immigration Reform & Control Act, 1986– Employer sanctions

– Legalization programs

• Immigration Act of 1990– 40% increase in immigration

– Employment categories tripled

– Diversity category created


Post-1996 Immigration Laws

• Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death PenaltyAct of 1996

• Illegal Immigration Reform and ImmigrantResponsibility Act of 1996

• Personal Responsibility and WorkOpportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996

• Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act of 2001

• Real ID Act of 2005


Immigrant Population


0

10

20

30

40

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Foreign-Born Population (millions)

Percent Foreign-Born of Total

Immigrant Numbers Peak in 1930 -–

Still Shrinking by 1970

14.2 Million

9.6 Million

Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000;Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013).


0

10

20

30

40

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000



Immigrant Numbers Grow Rapidly

from 1970 Low Point


40.5 Million(2007, adj.)

14.2 Million

9.6 Million


41.7

0

10

20

30

40

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000



Immigrant Numbers Grow Rapidly

But Plateau After 2007



14.2 Million

9.6 Million


41.7

0

10

20

30

40

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000



Immigrant Numbers at Peak –Percentage is Only Near Peak

14.8 Percent

4.7 Percent13.4 Percent

(2012)



Hispanic Trends ProjectSource: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013).

Latin Americans & AsiansDominate Foreign-Born

OtherLatin America -- 24%

7.1 million

Africa, Other -- 5%1.6 million

Europe &Canada -- 16%

4.9 million

Asia -- 31%9.2 million

Mexico -- 20%6.0 million

Mid-East -- 4%1.2 million

41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012


2.5

5

3.33

43.9

8.4

11.1(2005)

12.0(2007)

4-80 6-891-82 6-86 10-9610-92 4-00 3-05 3-10

The Unauthorized PopulationGrew Rapidly Thru 2007

Millions of Unauthorized ImmigrantsLiving in the U.S.

Source: Compilation from various sources;Pew Hispanic Center, 2000-2010 (Passel & Cohn 2011).


5.7

6.8

7.9

8.6

9.4

10.1

11.1

12.2

11.3

3.53

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Total Unauthorized Downward Trend

Established ’07-’09Unauthorized population(millions)

Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013.


5.7

6.8

7.9

8.6

9.4

10.1

11.1

12.2

11.3 11.511.7

3.53

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Total Unauthorized Dropped’07-’09;

Essentially No Change ‘09 to ‘12Unauthorized population

(millions)




8.6

9.4

10.1

11.1

12.2

11.311.5 11.7

8

10

12

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Total Unauthorized Dropped’07-’09;

Essentially No Change ‘09 to ‘12Unauthorized population

(millions)




Legal Status of Immigrants2012

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends preliminary estimates based on Passel et al. 2013.

26%28%

42% 4%

Legal Permanent Resident (LPR)

Aliens10.9 million

Temporary Legal Residents1.7 million

Unauthorized Immigrants11.7 million


Naturalized Citizens

(former LPRs)17.3 million


11.7 Million Unauthorized in 2012

Mexico is Largest Source ofUnauthorized, by Far

OtherLatin America -- 24%

2.7 million



0.8 million





2.9

3.5

4.1

4.5

5.0

5.6

6.3

6.9

6.4

1.41

3

5

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‘07;

Dropped Considerable by ‘10Unauthorized populationBorn in Mexico (millions)




2.9

3.5

4.1

4.5

5.0

5.6

6.3

6.9

6.46.2

6.0

1.41

3

5

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‘07;

No Indications of Increases thru ‘12Unauthorized population

Born in Mexico (millions)




2.8

3.3

3.84.1

4.4 4.54.8

5.35.0

2.1

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Non-Mexican Unauthorized Peaked ’07;

Unauthorized population (millions)

Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year

significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before

significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change

is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary

Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)


2.8

3.3

3.84.1

4.4 4.54.8

5.35.0

5.3

2.1

5.7

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Non-Mexican Unauthorized Peaked ’07;

Increases Since ‘09 (but not since ‘07)Unauthorized population (millions)

Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year

significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before

significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change

is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary

Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)


Legal Immigrant Arrivals Growing Numbers & New

Origins

15%19%70%15%22%

47%

35%37%

45%35%

16%

15%

25%

24%

25%

26%

26%

9%

1951 to 1960

1961 to 1970

1971 to 1980

1981 to 1990*

1991 to 2000*

2001 to 2010

1,050,000

250,000

330,000

450,000

600,000

* Excludes IRCA legalizations

Legal Immigrants Admitted,Average Annual

770,000

10%12%

6%

14%

14%13%

11%

6%Other Latin America

Mexico

Asia

Europe & Canada

All Other


30.0 Million Legal Immigrants in 2012

Mexico is Largest Single Source of

Legal Foreign-Born, AlsoOther

Latin America -- 24%7.1 million



4.9 million





Focus on Growth of Mexicans

in U.S. and Flows


Key Features of Mexican Migration

• Mexican Population in U.S. -- Rapid Build-Up begins in 1970s through 2007 -- Growth Stops after 2007 (10% in US) -- Unauthorized Numbers Peak in 2007

• Flows into U.S. -- Upward Trend in Late ‘90s; Peak ca. ’99-’01 -- Drop and Increase Tied to Employment -- Flows Plummet After ’07 -- Most Flows now Legal (<20% pre-’05)

• Other Features -- Role of Enforcement Uncertain -- Return Flows Increased after 2008 -- Family & Geographic Options Keep Folks in US


13 24 42 68 78 103

760,000(1970)

576

486

222

454

377

641

BeginningsFlood Tide

Deportations

Bracero Era

8%

0

250

500

750

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)

Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population

Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.

Growth to WWI & ‘20s; Depression Deportations; Slow Expansion w/

Braceros

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.

Thousands of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born


.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 760,000(1970)

.576.486.222 .454.377

.641

Beginnings Flood TideDeportations

Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%




Scale Change…


Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born


.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

2,200,000(1980)

.760.576.486.222 .454.377

.641


Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

16%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%




Rapid Growth through 2007;Acceleration Driven by

Unauthorized




.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

7,700,000(1996)

4.5

2.2

.760.576.486.222 .454.377

.641


Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

28%

16%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%





Unauthorized




.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

9.4

7.7

4.5

2.2

.760.576.486.222 .454.377

.641


Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

16%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%





Unauthorized



12,770,000(2007 ACS--Adjusted)


.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

9.4

7.7

4.5

2.2

.760.576.486.222 .454.377

.641


Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

16%

32%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%





Unauthorized



12,770,000(2007 ACS--Adjusted)


.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

9.4

7.7

4.5

2.2

.760.576.486.222 .454.377

.641


Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

16%

32%

8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%




Growth Stops and Reverses 2007-2011;



12,010,000(2012 CPS--Adjusted)


.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103

9.4

7.7

4.5

2.2

.760.576.486.222 .454.377

.641


Bracero Era

Undocumented

Contradiction

16%

32%

8% 9.3%

10.2%

4.9%

1.4%0

2

4

6

8

10

12

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%




Growth Stops and Reverses 2007-2011;

HUGE Share of Mexicans in U.S. Now



12,010,000(2012 CPS--Adjusted)


Annual Flows, the Economy & Enforcement


570

670

250

140

770

150

580

470

370

0

200

400

600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

Mexican In-Flows to US Peak in ‘00;

Drop After ‘05 to One-Fifth of Peak in ‘10

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on ACS and CPS, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012.

Annual Total Immigrationfrom Mexico to

the U.S. (in 000s)

% Employed of LaborForceIn U.S.

Mexico-U.S.Migration

Rise Peak Decline


570

670

250

140

770

150

580

470

370

0

200

400

600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

Link of In-Flows to Employment is Strong;

Implies Economic Motivation to Migrate

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on ACS and CPS, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012.

Annual Total Immigrationfrom Mexico to

the U.S. (in 000s)

% Employed of LaborForceIn U.S.

Mexico-U.S.Migration

Rise Peak

U.S. Employment

Rate

Decline


266

404

662

981

1,085

882

1,6371,499

974

1,140

140

370

770

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Apprehensions of Mexicans at the Southern Border

(in thousands)

Border Apprehensions of MexicansTrack Flows, but at Higher Levels

Annual Mexican Immigration (Based on PHT estimates,

in thousands)

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends for arrivals; DHS for apprehensions.


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

“Voluntary” Returns are DOWN, but

Removals (Involuntary) are UpPersons Sent to MexicoBy U.S. Government (000s)

280150

1,560

350

Removals

Returns(from Apprehensions)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center based on Passel ,Cohn , & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.


27%31%

41%

28%

Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009

EventuallySucceeded

Apprehendedat Least Once

Apprehension Rate is Up,

Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.


98% 95%100% 97%

27%31%

41%

28%

Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009

EventuallySucceeded

Apprehendedat Least Once

Apprehension Rate is Up, BUT…Virtually Everyone Gets In

Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.


Many UnauthorizedCome Through Ports of

Entry

11-12 Million in 2005-2006

Entered Legally--NonimmigrantVisa Overstay

4–5.5 million(41%)

Entered Legally--Border Crossing

Card250,000–500,000 (?)

(4-5%)

Entered Without

Inspection6–7 million

(55%)


164 147 132 174 219 175 161 174 149 190 165 139 143116206

14890

1,0621,043

1,1311,1071,052

1,266

1,122

958

798

704

1,0591,059

850

647655

916

720

1995 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11

All Other

Mexico

Legal Admissions (in 000s)Fiscal years

Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,Office of Immigration Statistics, DHS

Average Admissions, ’00-’11

1,034

“Green Cards” routinely exceed 1 million

No declines since ‘00 (except ‘03)


Reversal of Mexico-U.S. Flows


670

1,390

1995 to 2000 (Feb.) 2005 to 2010 (June)

U.S. to Mexico (000s)

Mexico to U.S. (000s)

Major Shift from ‘95-’00 to ‘05-’10;

Flows to Mexico More than Double

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on varioussources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.


1,370

2,940

1995 to 2000 (Feb.) 2005 to 2010 (June)



Major Shift from ‘95-’00 to ‘05-’10;

Flows to US Down by 55%



670

1,390 1,370

2,940

1995 to 2000 (Feb.) 2005 to 2010 (June)



Result of Shifts Net ZERO Migration for 2005-

2010



246 274

667

337

985

129

1990Census

2000Census

2005Conteo

2006ENADID

2009ENADID

2010Census

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on Mexicansources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.

When Did the Flows Turn Around?

’07-’08 based on “In US 5 Years Ago”Persons in Mexico at Census/Survey and

in U.S. Five Years Earlier(thousands)


455

325

265

195

130

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Flows into US Dropped Dramatically

After 2005


Estimated Annual Movement (in 000s)

Mexico to U.S.Flow Estimate


455

325

265

195

130

550

350

180

150 160

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Mexico to U.S.Flow Estimate

Illustrative Estimates Point to Large

Net Return Flows for 2008-2010

U.S. to Mexico(Illustrative,

ENADID)


Estimated Annual Movement (in 000s)


1.4 Million U.S. to Mexico Migrants, 2005-2010Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on Mexican2010 Census, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.

Who is Going Back to Mexico?

Other Adults53,000 (4%)

Long-TermMexican Migrants

(5+ years in US)825,000 (59%)

Short-TermMexican Migrants

200,000 (15%)

U.S.-BornChildren (>5)

110,000 (8%)

U.S.-Born Children ofMexicans (Under 5)

210,000 (15%)


59%

53%

46%

23% 23%

29%

42%51%

32% 31%33%

19%

37% 36%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Latino Arrivals(as Share of All Arrivals)

Asian Arrivals

New Pattern Emerging by 2009 -–

Asian Inflows Surpass Latinos


Characteristics of Unauthorized

Immigrants in the U.S.


Why Aren’t More Leaving the US?

• Fear of Losing U.S. Job

• Situation in Mexico OK, Not Great

• Border Enforcement -- Costly & Risky to Re-enter U.S.

• Integration into U.S. Society -- Families Increasingly Rooted in U.S. -- U.S.-Born Children in School -- Social Networks in the U.S. -- Geographic Diversity gives Options


92%85%

80%

Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)

Unauthorized Immigrants

Legal Foreign-Born

All Natives

Unauthorized Men Work More;

Percent in Labor Force,2011

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.


60%65%

71%



Legal Foreign-Born

All Natives

Women Work Much Less Than Others Percent in Labor Force,

2011



92%

60%

85%

65%

80%71%



Legal Foreign-Born

All Natives

Unauthorized Men Work More;Women Work Much Less Than

Others Percent in Labor Force,2011



Unauthorized Immigrants More Likely To Be Couples with

Children

44%

34%

20%

UnauthorizedImmigrant

Households

Legal ImmigrantHouseholds

U.S. NativeHouseholds

Percent of Group’s Householdsthat are Couples with Children,

2011



35.8%37.2%

39.4%

42.4%43.8%

47.1%

50.3%

54.7%

59.4%

30%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Unauthorized Immigrant Population

Has Become“Settled” in the U.S.Share of Unauthorized Immigrants Who

Have Lived in the US 10 Years or More



37.6%

40.8% 42.0%44.6%

47.6%

52.6%

56.1%

61.6%

68.4%

30%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Unauthorized Mexican Population

Is Even More “Settled” in the U.S.Share of Unauthorized Mexicans Who

Have Lived in the US 10 Years or More



0.9

2.6

0.9

Men withoutPartners or

Children

Men with Partnersor Children

Women withoutPartners or

Children

Women withPartners or

Children

Without Children

With Children

A Majority of Unauthorized Women

Are Married or Have ChildrenUnauthorized ImmigrantAdults 2011 (millions)



2.52.2

1.0


Children



Children


Children

Without Children

With Children

A Majority of Unauthorized Men (!)

Are Married or Have Children


Unauthorized ImmigrantAdults 2011 (millions)


2.5

0.9

2.62.2

0.9

1.0


Children



Children


Children

Without Children

With Children

A Majority of Unauthorized Adults

Are Married or Have Children


Unauthorized ImmigrantAdults 2011 (millions)


1.4

0.3

1.61.4

0.3

0.4


Children



Children


Children

Without Children

With Children

Other Family

A Majority of Mexican Unauthorized

Are Married or Have Children, AlsoAdult Unauthorized Immigrants,

from Mexico 2011 (millions)



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US-Born Children of Unauthorized Up

but Unauthorized Children DecreaseChildren with at Least One Unauthorized

Immigrant Parent, by Status,2000-2011 (in millions)

0.9

1.5

2.1

4.6

Unauthorized ImmigrantChildren

U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Parent(s)



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Among Mexican UnauthorizedUS-Born Children Up Even

MoreChildren with at Least One Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Parent, by Status,2000-2011 (in millions)

0.48

0.90

1.4

3.3

Unauthorized ImmigrantChildren from Mexico

U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Mexican Parent(s)



Unauthorized Families—5.5 M Others with a Very Mixed

Composition

16.6 Million in Unauthorized Families, 2011

Other Adults910,000

Unauthorized Men5.7 million

56% of Adults UnauthorizedWomen4.5 million

44% of Adults

UnauthorizedChildren

890,000Only 8% of AllUnauthorized

U.S. CitizenChildren4.6 million

84% of Kids



Unauthorized Mexican FamiliesHave a Very Mixed

Composition

10 Million in Unauthorized Mexican Families, 2011

Other Adults585,000

Unauthorized Men3.3 million

58% of Adults UnauthorizedWomen2.3 million

42% of Adults

UnauthorizedChildren

475,000Only 8% of AllUnauthorized

U.S. CitizenChildren3.3 million

87% of Kids



Large Number of “DREAM”ers Potentially Eligible for Deferred

Deportation

1.4 Million Potential “DREAM”ers

IneligibleAdults

84%9.5 million

1.4 MillionPotential

Beneficiaries

Under 18150,000

Currently in School

IneligibleChildren

32% of Kids300,000

FuturePotential550,000

Most Under 15Some 15-17 Not

Currently in School

Adults 18-20700,000

In US before Age 16In US 5+ yearsIn School or

College Degree730,000

Source: March 2010 CPS, augmented by Pew Hispanic Center.


Where Do the Immigrants Live?


Immigrants Are Concentrated

New York -- 11%4.5 million


Texas -- 11%4.5 million

Florida -- 9%3.8 million

Illinois -- 4%1.8 million

All Others36%

14.9 million

California -- 25%10.4 million

New Jersey -- 5%2.0 million


Core States – 73% in ’90, 64% in ’12

Immigrant PopulationGrowth, 1990-2011 (US=104%)

Major Destinations (65% in 2011) (6)

All Other States (22-126%) (18)Other “New Growth” (154-251%) (17)Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) (10)

Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.


Ten Fastest Growing Immigrant Pops






New Immigration Growth Centers






Unauthorized Immigrants Move Away from California

After 1990CA, 42%

23%

Others, 20%

FL, 7%IL, 6%

NJ, 3%

NY, 10%TX, 13%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Pew Research CenterPassel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)

Percent of Total Unauthorized Population

(700,000)


Unauthorized Spread is to “New”

Areas, not Traditional States

23%

CA, 42%

39%

Others, 20%

FL, 7%IL, 6% 5%

NJ, 3%

8%NY, 10%

13%TX, 13%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012



(700,000)

(4,700,000!)


Unauthorized Spread Stops After ’07; “Others” Hold

ConstantCA, 42%

21%

39%

Others, 20%

40%

FL, 7%8%

4%IL, 6%

NJ, 3%

7%

NY, 10%TX, 13%

15%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012



(700,000)

(4,700,000)(4,700,000!)


Dispersal of Unauthorized Immigrants

Unauthorized Immigrants, 2011 (11.1 million)

1,700,000-2,600,000

40,000-100,000120,000-350,000475,000-775,000

Less than 35,000

(2)

(19) (12) (4)

(14) Source: Consistent withPassel & Cohn 2012,

superseded.


New Growth High % Unauthorized

% Unauthorized of Foreign-Born, 2011

(U.S. = 28%)Highest % Unauthorized (36-50%)

Lowest % Unauthorized (<20%)Low % Unauthorized (22-27%)High % Unauthorized (28-34%)

(19)

(11) (12)

(9)

Source: Consistent withPassel & Cohn 2012,

superseded.


Unauthorized Workers Numbers and

Shares Increased through 2007

5.5

6.3 6.4 6.56.8

7.47.8

8.4 8.27.8 8.0 8.0

3.8%4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6%

5.0% 5.2%5.5% 5.3%

5.1% 5.2% 5.2%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Millions ofunauthorized immigrant workers

Unauthorized immigrant workersas share of labor force

Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmentedMarch CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.


% Unauthorized of Labor Force, 2011

% Unauthorized of Labor Force (2011, U.S. = 5.2%)

Very Highest (8.9%-10.7%)

Below Average (2.6%-4.0%)Average (4.4%-5.3%)Above Average (5.7%-6.9%)

Very Lowest (<2.3%) (14)

(4)

(7) (6)

(20) Source: Consistent withPassel & Cohn 2012,

superseded.


1-in-15 of K-12 Students is theChild of an Unauthorized

Immigrants

5.0%1.8%

6.9%

16.1%

77.0%

13.3%

2.8%

U.S.-born parent Legal immigrant parent Unauthorized immigrantparent

All children

US-born child

Immigrant child

Percent of K-12 School Enrollment,

2010



% of K-12 with Unauthorized Parents

% of K-12 Students withUnauthorized Parent(s)

(2010, U.S. = 6.9%)Very Highest (10%-18%)

Well Below Average (2.0%-3.5%)Below Average (3.8%-6.4%)Average (6.7%-7.6%)

Very Lowest (<1.9%) (11)

(5)

(15) (7)

(13)Source: Consistent with

Passel & Cohn 2012,superseded.

18%

17%

10%

15%

13%


What About the Future?

• Flows Down—Response to Economy– Enforcement May Be Working

• Border Effectiveness Uncertain for Now• Interior Laws Make Life Risky/Unpleasant

• Changes in Mexico Affect Flows– Smaller Birth Cohorts Less Demographic Pressure– Break in Flows May Weaken Networks

• Key Features of Unauthorized Population– Families, Not Just Individuals– Networks and Culture Have Enhanced Flows– Scale is Large and Dispersed


Thank You!


Contact InformationJeffrey S. PasselSenior Demographer

[email protected]


202-527-2146 (mobile)202-419-3625 (direct)