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From the Kitsap Regional Coordinating Council website.
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Kitsap Regional Alternative Futures Project
May 5, 2011
KRCC Planning Directors
The SettingIn the past 50 years, Kitsap County grew from 84,000 to 251,000 people.
1960: 1 person/3 acresToday: 1 person/1 acre
In the next 50 years we are expected to grow to 450,000.
2060: 1 person/0.56 ac
QuestionHow can Kitsap County accommodate growth while maintaining the viability of the economy and the environment?
Describe Alternative FuturesDescribe Envision softwareEnvision SkagitEnvision Kitsap
Today’s Discussion
10/16/09 5
Alternative Futures
Alternative FuturesA planning method which compares long-term effects of planning policies
Decision support toolScenarios: set of policies characterized by a particular valueIndicators
ExamplesWillametteChico WatershedSilverdale/Barker
Alternative FuturesDCD received EPA grant
2010-2012
Local PartnersILAs with Bainbridge Island, BremertonVarying involvement: Other cities, tribes
ContractorsOSU: Create Envision Kitsap modelBattelle: Integrate Envision model with nearshore assessment
Kitsap Alternative Futures ProjectPurpose as stated in EPA contract
Accommodate growth while improving priority habitat of Kitsap’s shoreline and uplands
What DCD aims to get from the projectA modeling tool to examine impacts of land use decisions (e.g., UGA expansions/ contractions, zoning)Growth in Kitsap that is economically and environmentally viable
Kitsap Alternative Futures Project
Step 1: Get organized (2010)Step 2: Create Kitsap’s model (2011)Step 3: Test model (2011/12)Step 4: Use model (2012)
Get organized
(2010)
Get organized
(2010)
Create model(2011)
Create model(2011)
Test model(2011)
Test model(2011)
Use model(2012)
Use model(2012)
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Envision Software Package
11
Envision software packagePurpose: facilitate alternative futures analysisHelps users
Develop and play out alternative land use scenariosVisualize resulting growth via time series mapsCommunicate ecological, economic and social changes (maps, graphs, tables)
12
Envision software packageOrganizes three-way interactions of actors, the landscape and policies.
Polic
iesActors
Landscapes
13
Envision software packageActors
Have decision making authority over parcels of landAre characterized by the values they express through their behaviors, which alter land use
Landscape Summation of parcelsChanges as individual decisions are made
Policies (aka Development Rules)Guide and constrain decisions
Envision– General Structure
Policies: Fundamental Descriptors of
constraints and actions defining land use
management decision making
Landscape: Spatial
Container in which land use changes are
depicted
Landscape Evaluative Change Models: Generate landscape metrics reflecting scarcity
Autonomous Change Processes: Models of
nonhuman change
Actors: Decision makers making
landscape change by selecting policies responsive to their
objectives Actions
PolicySelection
Landscape Feedback
15
Envision PoliciesEnvision’sPolicy Wizard help users create the policies that constrain actors.
Spatially explicitTemporally explicitScenario-specific
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Envision ScenariosEnvision’sScenario Wizard helps users bundle policies into coherent scenarios
17
Envision LandscapeLandscape comprised of Individual Decision Units (IDUs)
Single actorBasic unit to analyze landscape changeEssentially parcelsEvery rule is applied to every IDU for every year
Envision Landscape EvaluatorsMaps and Graphs that reflect scenario’s performance with respect to indicators
Year by yearAll scenarios
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Envision Indicators Should measure/report
Things that are importantThings that decision makers care about and will inform/influence decisions
ExamplesUrban/rural splitPopulation by City/UGA, etc.Acres of commercial, residential landAcres of habitat available for key species
ENVISION SKAGITInitial Outputs
Envision Skagit 2060One year ahead of Kitsap’s effortSimilarities
EPA-grant fundedIndicatorsScenarios
Initial Envision results released in December
Zoning
Zoning
Floodplain
Existing UGAs (2010)
2060 UGAs – Plan Trend Scenario
2060 UGAs – Ecosystem Scenario
2060 UGAs – Development Scenario
New Dwelling Units – Ecosystem 2060
New Dwelling Units – Development 2060
ENVISION KITSAPCurrent Status, Next Steps
Envision Kitsap: IDUsDeveloping Individual Decision Units
140,000 Parcel IDUs36K have “Constrained Development Portion”
1,800 Road IDUs900 Shoreline IDUs16 Lake IDUs
Envision Kitsap: Priority Areas
Types of “Priority Areas”ConservationDevelopment
Tells Envision places more/less suited for Development and Conservation
Envision will track population changes within Priority AreasEnvision will nudge people towards Development Priority Areas
Priority Areas
ConservationCritical Areas Habitat qualityWater flowLand cover
DevelopmentInfrastructureServicesJurisdictions
Draft
Draft
Envision Kitsap: PopulationPopulation growth
1.13% 2010 to 2030 (PSRC)1.2% 2030 to 2060 (OFM & PSRC)
Population growth is the primary driver of land use change Envision allocates
“Plan Trend” will use CPPs’ allocation for 2010-2030Total population same for each scenario
Next Steps: ScenariosScenario = Set of development rules
Plan TrendDevelopmentEcosystemResource Harvest
Types of development rulesUrban/rural splitZoning densityBuilding in constrained areas, resource landsLot aggregationUGA contraction
Next Steps: ScenariosFirst “Plan Trend” then other “bookends”
Sufficiently different to show policy impacts Robust is helpful; timid is not
RolesDCD staff: Propose set of development rulesBoard: ReviewCity/tribal planners: Review/commentOSU: Translate the development rules into Envision code
When: Spring
QUESTIONS ?Kitsap Alternative Futures Project