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Recommendation of a Strategy
The Future of Learning (Yours)
Eric Grant, LDT 05Futurist, Edupreneur
email: [email protected]: senatorgrant
Overview
Lecture: A Bit of Context for Today
Discussion: Education in the Flat World
Lecture: Tools Used by the Pros
Activity: Scenario Development
Lecture: Products of the Pros
Discussion: What's Next?
Suggested Reading
The World is Flat by Thomas FriedmanOptional: Education in the Flat World
Shift Happens 2.0
Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky
Wikinomics by Dan Tapscott
Disrupting Class by Clayton Christensen
A Whole New Mind by Daniel Pink
Generations by Strauss and Howe
Context for Today
or: Explicit Learning Goals
Most likely, the Future is not that different from nowDemographics change, capacities increase, but humans still learn, work, play, love, and die
The Future is impossible to predict, and if you try, you will be wrong, and probably be ridiculedBut the future can be forecasted through a variety of fuzzy arts and rigorous methods
An unchanged Future is boring and uselessBut talking about the extreme possibilities is much more interesting and generates better strategies
Futurists, aka Futurismologists
Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them.
Futures Studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel.
The discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.
Some Fun Foresight Shapes
The future can often be depicted in terms of pendulum shifts
The future sometimes looks like a long tail
Source: Longtail.com
Source: Wikipedia
Some Fun Foresight Shapes
The S-Curve is popular for forecasting adoption of new technologies and products
But the Hype Cycle is usually more accurate
Source: Gartner via Wikipedia
Source: Wikipedia
Some Fun Foresight Shapes
The future can be depicted as a cone of uncertaintyIt becomes more uncertain the further out you try to lookTrends that seem obvious now become wilder and more unpredictable
TimeTime
Tools of the Pros: Trend Analysis
collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information
often coupled with data visualizations, such as maps
Tools of the Pros: the Delphi Method
systematic, interactive method which relies on a panel of independent experts
experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds
after each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments
participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group
it is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning
and our learning activity for today
(orginally) simulation games created by analysts for policy or military uses
(now) plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day, combined with narratives about where those situations may lead
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning
Step 1: Choose a Focal Issue (and Timeframe)
example: How can we design learning environments for 2020 to
ensure that all students succeed?
example: How can we support continuing / lifelong learning in
2020?
example: How can we ensure equity and access for all students in
2020?
example: How can organizations maximize the potential of workers in 2020?
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning
Step 2: Choose Your Critical Uncertainties
Make some basic assumptionsex: the Earth will still support life in 2020
ex: bandwidth, storage, and data will continue to increase over
the next 10 years
Create a list of critical uncertainties that have identifiable possibile outcomes, and choose 2 that will work well togetherex: What will learning outcomes be? Fluid? Static?
ex. What will the purpose of education be? Citizens? Workers?
ex: How will teachers be trained in 10 years?
ex: Will the world become flatter or isolated?
ex: Where will learning happen?
Tip: Do not assign value judgements to critical
uncertainties
Arrange your critical uncertainties in a Cartesian plane (aka 2x2)
Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020?
Learning Outcomes
Where Learning Takes Place
Any Time, Any Place
In School
Static
Fluid
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning
Step 3: Imagine details of each quadrant
Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020?
Learning Outcomes
Where Learning Takes Place
Any Time, Any Place
In School
Static
Fluid
Scenario B: Supply and Demand for Democracy
Scenario A: America Competes
Scenario C: Hot, Flat, and Crowded
Scenario D: Teacher-At-Large
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning
Other Steps
Step 4: Create scenarios (stories) explaining how each quadrant
might happen
Step 5: Figure out how your (organization, institution, family,
project, etc) could act most effectively in each
situation
Step 6: Over the next year or two, watch for signs that one of
these scenarios might be playing out
Step 7: Revise your scenarios every few years
Learning Activity
As a large group, brainstorm 4 - 5 focal issues (5 minutes)
Self-select into small groups to address one of the focal issues (20 minutes)Identify several critical uncertainties; narrow down to 2
Map to 2x2 and identify characteristics of each quadrant
Regroup to report out
Products of the Pros:
The Map of Future Forces
Trend Analysis and Visualization
First Version 2006 to 2016 (2006)
Second Version 2020 (March 2009)
Created by KnowledgeWorks Foundation and Institute for the
Future
http://www.kwfdn.org/map
Products of the Pros:
Map of Future Forces 2020
Six Drivers of ChangeAltered Bodies
Amplified Organizations
The Maker Economy
Platforms for Resilience
A New Civic Discourse
Pattern Recognition
Products of the Pros:
Horizon Report
Trend Analaysis and Delphi Method, produced via Wiki
Annual; latest version January 2010
Produced by New Media Consortium and Educause Learning
Intiative
http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Main_Page
Products of the Pros:
The 2009 Horizon Report
Increasing globalization continues to affect the way we work, collaborate, and communicate
The notion of collective intelligence is redefining how we think about ambiguity and imprecision
Experience with and affinity for games as learning tools is an increasingly universal characteristic among those entering higher education and the workforce
Visualization tools are making information more meaningful and insights more intuitive
As more than one billion phones are produced each year, mobile phones are benefiting from unprecedented innovation, driven by global competition
What's Next?
Do your scenarios fit with the forecasts of the pros?
How can all of this help us?
Click to edit the title text format
Click to edit the outline text formatSecond Outline LevelThird Outline LevelFourth Outline LevelFifth Outline LevelSixth Outline LevelSeventh Outline LevelEighth Outline LevelNinth Outline Level
Everything ElseShoe Styles
Teacher Training500
The Universe9500