Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General

Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations

OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022)

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average.Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.

WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections

Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red

Country/region

Fish Demand (2030)

Total fish prod. (2012, mil. tonne)

S-Dgap

2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3)

kg/cap.Total (mil.

tonne)

WORLD29.1 261.2

156.5 -104.7

S.S. Africa10.8 15.1

6.9 -8.2

L.A. & C.12.2 18.3

14.8 -3.4

N. Africa12.9 3.7

2.8 -0.8

Europe27.3 23.4

16.0 -7.4

N. America29.8 12.9

6.7 -6.1

Oceania31.9 1.8

1.4 -0.3

Asia37.0 186.3

107.8 -78.5

FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections

Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012

Aquaculture for human consumption

Capture for human consumption

Non-food uses

Per capita food fish supply

Production (million tonnes live weight)

Per capita yearly supply (kg)

State of World Marine Fish Stocks

Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9%

[Million Tonnes]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

China61%

Asia91%

Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production

Fish and healthy human diets

Vitamin A

Protein

DHAEPA

Vitamin D

Vitamin B12

Zinc

Iron

Calcium

Selenium

Iodine

Fish, a source of nutrients Daily need (RDI) for children:

DHA+EPA (Ω-3);

seafood main source150 (250) µg

Vitamin A;

250 million preschool children deficient

150 (250) mg

Iron;

1.6 billion people deficient

8.9 mg

(at 10% bioavailability)

Iodine;

seafood natural source, 2 billion people deficient

120 µg

Zinc;

800 000 child deaths per year5.6 mg

(at moderate bioavailability)

• Capture Fisheries 10-20 mil. tonnes

• Aquaculture 50-100 mil. tonnes

• More for human consumption 10 mil. tonnes

• Less waste 15 mil. tonnes

Four Pathways:

Possible?

Plausible?

What is possible is plausible

What has happened before can happen again

Optimistic

Realistic

Skeptical

• Economic growth andopen markets.

• Benign climate change and environmental impact.

• More effective public and private governance.

• High productivity and output in aquaculture.

Possible, plausible and realistic