Proposed fire and haze research

How do emissions take place?

Litterfall

Root mortality

Heterotrophic soil respiration

CH4 & N2O

Soluble & physical removal (DIC, DOC & POC)

Net peat decomposition loss

CO2 & CH4

FireCO2 ,CH4, CO

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Goal of the researchContribute to reductions in fires, greenhouse gas emissions, and trans-boundary haze by better understanding the drivers of fires (who? why? and how?) and the governance conditions that mediate them, the climate feedbacks, and the impacts of haze on the global climate, and on human health.

RationaleImportant gaps remain despite previous research on fires, greenhouse gas emissions and trans-boundary haze in SEA:

Drivers and impacts fires and haze have been poorly assessed during wet (non-El Ninõ) years

Drivers of fires and the governance conditions mediating them change over time

The temporal sequence of: “forest conversion to agriculture”, involving fire is not fully understood and is important for accurate GhG accounting

Estimated GHG and aerosols emissions from fires in SEA peatlands have high uncertainties, therefore their impacts in global climate and human health are not well determined

Overall Output A protocol in place to monitor: (i) climatic and socio-

economic drivers of fires and haze; (ii) effectiveness of social and institutional arrangements; (iii) burned areas; (iv) impacts on the global climate and human health in rural and urban areas.

Forecast fire season severity in advance (early warning system developed)

More accurate estimates of GHG and aerosols emissions and impacts on human health from land fires and haze

Contribute to implement through multi-stakeholder dialogues Options on more effective institutional arrangements at multiple levels of governance for reducing land fires and haze.

MonitoringU

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Impa

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Fire/Haze

Multiple drivers

Law enforcementSocial negotiations

Local/national politicsIncentives

Conservation interventions

REDD+

Governance & institutional arrangement

Effectiveness and shortcomings of institutional arrangements

Impacts on temperature & human health (rural and urban)

Outputs:

•Protocol to monitor drivers

•Early warning system

•More accurate GHG emissions estimation

•More accurate estimate human health impacts

•Better understanding of patterns of drivers and causality

•Science supports evidence based interventions

Fewer fi

re/haze

Burnt areas&smoke plumes landscapes dynamics mapped.Haze composition & emissions rate known

Socio-economic drivers

•Land tenure•Conflict•Finance and capital•Migration policy•Expanding OP market•Poverty•Demographic (population density & migration)

Climatic, Soil, Landcover Drivers

•Drought/rainfall•El Niño occurrence•Indian Ocean Dipole•Wind speed/direction•Peat lands•Degraded lands•Peat soil draining

Mortality rateOthers?

TemperatureOthers?Health Climate

Spatio-temporalvariations of drivers mapped comprehensively at finer scales

What conditions cause fires to produce haze (water content, peat quality, land cover, burn frequency, etc.) and what controls these conditions?

How do drainage and burning affect greenhouse gas emissions?

What are the atmospheric transport mechanisms that determine the haze trajectory

How does haze affect rural health near in the region of burning

How does haze affect health in down-wind cities

Component 1: impacts on climate & health

Component 2: Socioeconomic drivers

We want to understand the importance of drivers:• Market demand for agricultural

commodities (e.g. oil palm, pulpwood)• Energy demand and potential

contribution of crop feedstocks and biomass

• Financing & capital investment• Credit for SMEs• Demography (availability of labor)• Migration• Poverty• Land tenure / Conflict

How are drivers are linked to fire ?

What other proximate and distal drivers are relevant?

How have the drivers of fire changed over time (e.g., since the 1997 haze incident)?

Component 2: socio-economic drivers

Designation of strategic sectors for medium development planning (RPJM) (e.g., oil palm, timber/pulp estates)

Legal frameworks for land allocation (e.g., APL, HPK, HP)

Conservation incentives systems (e.g., REDD+, moratorium)

Law enforcement/incentives for compliance efforts

Policies/incentives for using degraded lands productively

Coordination among different institutions and administrative levels

Component 3: Governance arrangements (policy levers)

In what ways might these governance arrangements/policy levers be linked to fire/haze, if at all?

What are the barriers/gaps that limit the effectiveness of these government arrangements?

What types of arrangements/policy options might be most effective in the Indonesian context?

Component 3: Governance arrangements