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Happy...but Happy...but Happy...but Happy...but
(1)
Credit Crunch
Tracking
September 2010
Happy...but Happy...but Happy...but Happy...but
Anxious For Anxious For Anxious For Anxious For
IrelandIrelandIrelandIreland
� It’s not as bad as we anticipated, with less
personal impact over the past year than
originally feared.
� High maintenance or improvement in
Caution remains among happy
consumers
(2)
� High maintenance or improvement in
quality of life, happiness & in energy and
motivation.
� However, caution over Irish economy
means we are holding our breath to see
what happens, & also our pulse strings.
The Recession
is not as bad as
we expected.
Actual personal
(3)
Actual personal
impact overall
is lower than
was expected a
year ago.
3046
High impact (8-10)
Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact -
Overall
Oct‘09%
ExpectedSept‘10%
Actual
-16%
(4)
Limited Impact (1-3)
Average 7.0
Some Impact (4-7) 44
� We feared
the worst
but it hasn’t
happened.
5.9
49+5%
21
10
4643
49 49
55
45 44
4951
43
34 34
18-34%
35-44%
45-64%
AGE
65+%
Any%
None%
CHILDREN
Male%
Female%
GENDER
ABC1%
C2DE%
SOCIALCLASS
Expected & Actual Personal Recession Impact
– Net High Impact (8-10)
TOTAL%
ActualSept‘10
ExpectedOct‘10
(5)
303027
33 3230
33
19
24
34 34
27
The greatest gap between expected & actual impact is seen in the 35-44
year old age category. This age cohort were very pessimistic but they
appear to have been impacted the same degree as the average.
This trend of
perception
being worse
than reality
(6)
than reality
carries forward
to monthly
spending, way
of life and job
security also.
4331
3823
Monthly Spending Your Way Of Life
High impact (8-10)
Oct‘09%
Oct‘09%
Expected & Actual Impact of Recession on….
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
ExpectedImpact
ActualImpact
-12% -15%
(7)
Average 6.7 6.4
Limited Impact (1-3)
Some Impact (4-7) 41 45
5.5
51
5.8
46 +5% +6%
� Our spending
and way of
life haven’t
been
impacted as
we expected.
1615
2125
Full-time Workers Part-time Workers
Job Security wasn’t as shaky as expected…
31
21
4635High impact (8-10)
Oct‘09%
Oct‘09%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
ExpectedImpact
ActualImpact
-10% -11%
(8)
Average 5.6 6.5
Limited Impact (1-3)
Some Impact (4-7) 40 34
5.7
33
4.4
33 -7% -1%
� Lower impact
on job security
than expected
for both full
and part-time
workers
193026
45
Even in this
time of
Recession we
are generally
happy.
(9)
happy.
For some
happiness has
even
increased!
271722 23Better
Change Compared To Same Time Last Year in ....
Quality of Life
%
Your Happiness
%
Your Energy for Life
%
Your Motivation
%
(10)
23 13 16 18Worse
The Same 60 65 61 54
77%87% 84%
82%
Only 1 in 4 claim their quality of life has failed since the same time last
year and for 6 out of 7 their happiness has maintained or increased.
% Better/Same as same time last year
Quality of LifeYour
HappinessYour Energy
LifeYour
Motivation
Total 77 87 84 82
Gender
Male 78 86 84 83
Change Compared To Same Time Last Year
Analysed by key demographics
(11)
Male 78 86 84 83
Female 77 88 83 80
Age
18-34 82 89 88 86
35-44 69 87 89 79
45-64 73 82 77 79
65+ 86 90 80 78
Social Class
ABC1 80 88 86 85
C2DE 76 86 82 78
Middle ages have seen greater impact on Quality Of Life, while the
Energy For Life of pre-retireds is lower than average
Dubliners and
those in urban
areas have seen
most
(12)
most
improvement in
quality of life,
happiness,
motivation &
energy for life
19
17
Urban AREA
Levels rating better than last year on....
TOTAL
23
22
26
23
30
27
Quality of Life
%
Your Happiness
%
Your Energy for Life
%
Your Motivation
%
(13)
13
11
17
25
13
Urban AREA
Rural
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Dublin
Rest of Leinster
REGION
19
20
22
26
20
20
19
26
27
19
22
25
26
33
23
Dubliners & those in urban areas see greatest
improvement across all measures
Although it may
not have been as
bad as we
expected so far,
(14)
expected so far,
consumers are
still holding their
breaths
9 7
1821 23
171 1
21 2
2
Much better (5)
Stay the same (3)
Slightly better (4)
12 11 18
How do you expect the Irish economy to
fare in the next 6 months?
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
26
Feb‘10%
May‘10%
26
� The outlook is more
bleak than previous
2010 waves, and
closely matches the
view at same period
last year.
Sept‘10%
22
(15)
38 39 3235 29 29
40 41
29 1721 30
Much worse (1)
Average
Slightly worse (2)
1.92 1.88 2.32
NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38
2.54
48
2.57
51
� Almost 1 in 3 expect
the Irish economy to
fare much worse over
the next 6 months.
� But 1 in 5 expect the
economy to improve
over the next 6 months.2.32
41
Once again,
higher
expectations
seen among the
youth.
(16)
youth.
However,
positivity
declines with
age.
Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5)
41 40 41
48
4245
39
46
18-34%
35-44%
45-64%
AGE
65+%
Any%
None%
CHILDREN
Male%
Female%
GENDER
ABC1%
C2DE%
SOCIALCLASS
TOTAL%
(17)
40 4137
32
3937
Change since
Feb ‘10
-10% -12% -8% -8% -3% -10% -21% -5% -13% -6% -11%
Positivity for the Irish Economy declines with age
The less
positive outlook
for Ireland is
not replicated
(18)
not replicated
for the world
economy, with
no change
since May.
31 3144
5343 41
3 2
5
5
6 5
Much better (5)
Slightly better (4)
How do you expect the World economy to fare in
the next 6 months?
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
May‘10%
� Expectations for the
World economy have
maintained as in May.
� Almost 1 in 3 believe
Sept‘10%
(19)
33 3421 17 21 21
15 11
85
8 8
Much worse (1)
Average
Stay the same (3)
Slightly worse (2)
NET Same/Better (3-5)
2.72
16
2.77
18
3.18
19
50 51 68
3.36
20
78
3.17
22
71
� Almost 1 in 3 believe
the World economy will
fare worse in the next 6
months.
� But just under half still
expect the World
economy to improve.
3.13
25
71
Stability
expected for job
market...
(20)
.. but some
foresee a
worsening
house market.
15 15 15
7 712 12 14 13
2 22
2 1 2 2
11 12 1511
2 22
Much better (5)
The Housing Market 6 months
from now?
Job security 6 months from
now?
Stay the same (3)
Slightly better (4)
20 1123 1426 2036 27
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
How do you expect the Housing and Job markets
to fare in the next 6 months?
May‘10%
May‘10%
38 27
Sept‘10%
32
Sept‘10%
31
(21)
44 40 3735 32 37
37 38 3639 36 34
21 22 19 13 13 1442 40
28 21 21 21Much worse (1)
Average 2.29
Slightly worse (2)
1.852.32 1.892.43 2.24
NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 1937 2243 34
2.59
53
2.34
40
2.60
55
2.39
42
2.55
49
2.40
45
More positive spend
patterns than May..
... but still remaining
(22)
... but still remaining
extremely cautious
19 18 17 19 16 16 15
1315
1013
4 6
46 5
7 67 3 4
45
3 5
34
Already increased
Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or
socialising
Grocery spend
Consumer goods and services – e.g.
hairdresser, clothes, mobile
phone, gaming etc.
Holidays and short
breaks
Likely to increasein next 6 months
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
Likelihood to increase spend in...
May‘10%
May‘10%
May‘10%
May‘10%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
(23)
63 6473
65 63 67 70 66 68 6574
67 62 6471 66
13 12 11 12 11 8 10 9 12 13 13 1220 16 14 17
19 1812
17 1916 12 17 16 16
9 1515
10136 4
Not likely to increase
Likely to increasein next 6 months
Likely to increasein next 12 months
After a dip in May a return to positivity seen in February.
However, 2 in 3 still holding tightly on purse strings
% Likely to increase spend in next 12 months
EntertainmentGrocery Spend
Consumer Goods/
Services
Holidays/ Shorter Breaks
Total 29 26 27 30
Gender
But, younger age groups and higher social
classes are most likely to increase spend again...
(24)
Gender
Male 29 24 26 29
Female 29 28 27 30
Age
18-34 42 34 38 37
35-44 29 27 24 28
45-64 20 20 20 22
65+ 15 13 17 24
Social Class
ABC1 33 26 28 33
C2DE 28 28 29 28
Summary...• It is not as bad as we anticipated, with
less personal impact over the past year
than originally feared.
• We feared the worst, but it hasn’t
happened for most of us. However, 3 in
10 have still had a high personal
Recession impact.
(25)
Recession impact.
• There is high maintenance or
improvement in quality of life, happiness,
in energy for life and motivation.
• Demographically younger and older age
groups claim higher levels of
maintenance or improvement of quality of
life.
Summary...
• Regionally, Dubliners and those in
Urban areas have seen greatest
improvement in quality of life,
happiness, energy and motivation.
• Despite the past, consumers are still
holding their breaths, as they expect
the Irish Economy to worsen.
(26)
the Irish Economy to worsen.
• This wave shows more positive spend
patterns than May, but 2 in 3 still hold
tightly on the purse strings and will not
increase spend in the next 12 months
• Stability is expected in the job market
but Irish consumers foresee a slightly
worsening housing market.
Methodology – RED Express
• 1,000 telephone interviews (CATI)
using a random digital sample to
ensure coverage of all households,
including ex-directory.
• Quotas were set and data weighted to
(27)
• Quotas were set and data weighted to
ensure a national representative
sample of the population aged 18+
years.
• This is the 9th wave of the credit
crunch tracking – fieldwork was
conducted 6th-8th September 2010.
