Upload
aberdeen-ces
View
1.384
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Summary of findings from the Sustainable Uplands project, funded by the Rural Economy & Land Use programme and ESRC
Citation preview
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Plan
1. The project2. How can we prepare for the future?3. What might the future hold for uplands?4. What would this mean for ecosystem services?5. What can we do?
All photos and video have copyright permission for use in this presentation
04/08/23 2reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
1. Sustainable Uplands Project
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
• 7 years (ending 2012)• Sites: Peak District, Yorkshire Dales, Galloway• £1.1M from RELU and ESRC• 29 researchers: Universities of Aberdeen, Leeds, St Andrews,
Durham, Sheffield & others with Moors for the Future & Heather Trust
Working with people in uplands to better anticipate and respond to future change
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
• Inputs to policy processes e.g. via Defra’s upland policy review, CRC’s upland inquiry, Foresight, NEA, Scottish Government Rural Land Use Study, IUCN peatland programme and consultation responses
• >£800K for 17 projects applying project outputs e.g. Yorkshire Water, Natural England, DEFRA, Premier Waste, United Utilities, Lancashire Wildlife Trust
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
The Sustainable Uplands team:University of Aberdeen:Dr Mark ReedProf Steve Redpath
University of St Andrews:Dr Ioan FazeyDr Anna Evely
Macaulay Institute:Mark SutterMike Rivington
Red = RELU 4th Phase Project
University of Durham:Prof Tim BurtDr Gareth ClayDr Fred WorrallDr Rob Dunford
University of Sheffield: Dr Christina Prell
Wirtschafts University, Austria:Dr Sigrid Stagl
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria: Jan Sendzimir
Moors for the Future partnership (Aletta Bonn)The Heather Trust (Simon Thorp)
University of Leeds:Prof Joe HoldenDr Klaus HubacekDr Nesha Beharry-BorgMs Jan BirchMs Sarah BuckmasterDr Dan ChapmanDr Pippa ChapmanDr Stephen CornellDr Andy DougillDr Evan FraserDr Jenny HodgsonDr Nanlin JinDr Brian IrvineProf Mike KirkbyDr Bill KuninMr Oliver MooreDr Claire QuinnDr Brad ParrishDr Lindsay StringerDr Mette Termansen
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Uplands: many things to many people
The Future?
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
2. How can we prepare for the future?
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
“Where do we come from?
What are we?
Where are we going?”
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
?Fortune Telling
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Dreaming
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Scenarios
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
• “Thinking out of the box” to anticipate and prepare for a wider range of futures in greater depth
• Combines knowledge from multiple stakeholders with evidence from literature and computational modelling
• 7 steps…
A new approach to scenarios
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
1. Better understand stakeholders priorities and their relationships through stakeholder analysis and social network analysis, and select working group
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
2. Understand current/future challenges/opportunities: interviews & site visits with stakeholders/researchers
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Managedburns overless areaDefra Burning
Code Review
10% leftunburned
Blanket BogBurning Ban
ShorterBurningSeason
Lessshooting days
Futureshooting ban
Increasedanimal rights
activism
Lowereconomic
returns fromgrouse
Lessmoorland
managed forgrouse
Smaller rurallabour pool
Demographicchange
Culturalchange
Conservationpriorities
More longheather
More scrub
Morebroadleaf
forest
Moreaccidental
fires
ClimateChange to
warmer/drier
Less erosion Less watercolour
More erosionMore water
colourLess
vegetationcover
Afforestationschemes
Coniferreplacement
schemes
Burningtechnologyadvances
CAP reform
Single farmpayment
EnvironmentalStewardship
Scheme
Hill sheepless
profitable
Less gamekeepering
Rural-urbanmigration
Ageing ruralpopulation
Less interestin rural
livelihoods
Less intensivegrazing
Agriculturalmarkets
Diversification?
Ecologicalrestoration
Recreationalpriorities
More controlof burning
Less bareground
Less 'flashy'hydrology
Badly timed burns,possibly under
burning
Reduction insheep numbers
Increasedrecreational use -walking, climbing,
tourism
Reluctance toclose moors
under fire risk
3. Conceptual system model from interviews, site visits & literature; trace drivers to create scenarios
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
4. Refine and prioritise scenarios for investigation
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
5. Model possible futures: details, feedbacks, scenarios interactions, ES trade-offs for future planning
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
6. Communicate model outputs through stories, films and visualisations that depict different likely futures
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
7. Find innovative ways that people can respond and discuss ideas from literature (How would you respond if this happened?)
• Model innovative ideas: how likely to work? • Use results to revise/refine ideas to ensure they work
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
3. What might the future hold?
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Intensification Scenario
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Extensification Scenario
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
4. What would this mean for ecosystem services?
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Future benefits?
• Carbon management via peatland restoration (as opposed to renewable energy developments) under the extensification scenario may bring a number of co-benefits:• Less brown water• Reduced fire risk• Protection of moorland/bog species
important for conservation• Limit scrub/forest encroachment• Supplement incomes in remote areas
via carbon markets?
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
But prepare for major trade-offs• Extensive management will benefit biodiversity in over-
grazed moorlands and carbon, but compromise provisioning services such as game and sheep production, and in drier locations where scrub/forest encroaches, lead to a loss of moorland species and current recreational benefits
• Intensification prioritises provisioning services at the expense of most other ecosystem services
• Both scenarios are likely to compromise upland biodiversity in in many locations• Already a source of conflict... Golden Plover
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Upland communities tend to be well connected – this is the Moors for the Future partnership, in the Peak District
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
This is a sub-sample of 22 individuals we interviewed, showing those
who communicated most with other (no matter how infrequently) in the network as
larger dots
Hill Farming
Conservation
Sporting Interests
Water Companies
Recreation
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Those who communicate on a monthly or more frequent basis
Hill Farming
ConservationSporting Interests
Water Companies
Recreation
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Hill Farming
ConservationSporting Interests
Water Companies
Recreation
“I think perhaps the moors are over-burnt and not respected from the point that they are driven too hard and pushed too hard for the purpose of the grouse…they are looking for more and more and more…But it becomes like any mono-culture then – if you’re driven so single-mindedly by one thing, that tends to knacker nature – that’s the problem.”
“At the moment there is a conflict between us [Natural England] and the people who manage fires, that we need to sort out. It’s a big thing - its probably the most important thing.”
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Hill Farming
Sporting Interests
Water Companies
Recreation
Conservation
“The heather moorlands… are there because of grouse shooting. Full-stop… Whether we like it or not, grouse shooting is the raison d’être.”
“[They] want to paint by numbers. The problem is [they] can’t tell you what the numbers are. [They] can’t tell you what is going to happen.”
“I’ve spent thirty years managing land and I’ve seen all these things come and go. So when you tell me as a very sincere young man with a great deal of credentials, that your prescription is right, you just listen to me: the guy who gave me 100% grant aid…to plough heather moorland also believed he was right because moorland was “waste”.”
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
The majority of individuals perceive considerable overlap between their views
on upland management and the views of those they
know from other groups
Hill Farming
ConservationSporting Interests
Water Companies
Recreation
“I hear people say “Of course ours is the best way to manage...”. It’s the best way of managing moorland for grouse production. Absolutely A1. The best for anything else? That’s open to question and that’s probably why a mix with people doing different things is our best hope of creating some semblance of balance.”
Agent
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
5. What can we do?
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
1. Link agricultural payments more effectively to provision of ecosystem services
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
2. Remove policy barriers to facilitate peatland restoration via carbon markets
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
3. Establish a national partnership of upland researchers, policy makers and practitioners to share knowledge and
develop a shared agenda for future research
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
RELU 4th phase project:• Understanding KE/KM processes• LWEC upland/peatland
Research, Policy & Practice Hub
reluRural Economy andLand Use Programme
Contactwww.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Follow us on:
www.twitter.com/reluuplands
Email: [email protected]
Call or text on: 0797 428 6778