The Rise of Cyberpower

Prof A. Esterhuyse and Ms N.Cowling

Prescribed Work and additional readings

Additional ReadingsCyber Security for Dummies – you can download it for free.

http://connect.paloaltonetworks.com/cybersecurity-dummies

Evaluating Cyber Security Awareness in South Africahttp://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/bitstream/10204/5108/1/Grobler1_2011.pdf

Introduction• First computer in 1946 for the US Army.

• Resulted in startling & indelible changes in:• modern society, • the global economy, and • the conduct of politics and warfare.

• Changes:• In a relative small space of time• With implications not fully discernable as yet.

• Implications for strategy?• Challenging to identify.• Able to analyse trends.• A broad and meaningful impact on the conduct of war.• Significant challenges for strategic studies.

Terms and Definitions

• A plethora of competing definitions of cyberspace, cyberpower, cyber war & infosphere.

• Concepts are relative new when compared to land, sea, air and space power.

• Cyberspace is intangible, fluid, and counterintuitive phenomenon – defies neat categorizations of the other strategic domains.

• Cyberpower is somewhat easier to grasp

Terms and Definitions

Cyberspace

• Various definitions:• What is and what is not included in any definition may have serious

implications for its strategic application.

“… a global domain within the information environment whose distinctive and unique character is framed by the use of electronics and the

electromagnetic spectrum to create, store, modify, exchange, and exploit information via interdependent and interconnected networks using

information-communication technologies.”

Terms and Definitions

Cyberpower

• “… the process of converting information into strategic effect”

• “… how cyberspace can be used to fulfil the ends of strategy”.

• The instrumentality of cyberpower.

• Adversarial in nature.

• Defined as “… the ability in peace, crisis, and war to exert prompt and sustained influence in and from cyberspace”

Terms and Definitions

• Cyber War

• Range of nefarious (wicked & evil) activities take place in cyberspace every day:• Hackers• Hacktivism• Criminal activities• Espionage• Cyber attacks/sabotage

• Raises a debate: does this constitute a new form of war?

• Few examples of cyberpower being used in actual combat.

• More accurate to speak of “cyber in war” or “war by cyber means”.

Characteristics and Attributes

The Infosphere

• The info environment & domain – a place in space and time where info exists and flow.

• Without which cyberspace is meaningless & cyberpower does not exist.

• Info as the currency of cyberpower & cyberpower uses info to achieve its political objective.

• Cyberspace as a subset of the infosphere.

“The infosphere consists of everything from direct human interactions where information is exchanged, and mediated communication through

such technologies as the telephone and printed matter.

Characteristics and Attributes

Characteristics of Cyberspace

1. Low-cost entry

2. Multiple actors

3. Relies on the electromagnetic spectrum

4. Requires man-made objects to exist

5. Can be constantly replicated

6. Near instantaneous

Characteristics and Attributes

Attributes of Cyberpower

1. Pervasiveness

2. Complementarity

3. Stealth

“Global Commons” or “Globally Connected Domain”

• Global commons – an internationally recognized legal status granted to the international high seas.

• Problem: • private ownership of cyberpower.• Use of cyberspace by people around the globe give it the

appearance of being a global commons.• Growing territorialisation of cyberspace

• US labelling of cyberspace as a “Globally Connected Domain”

A New Dimension of Conflict

• Cyberspace = a place of constant conflict, resulting in disruption, deception, and theft.

• Not conflict that would be regarded as war in the Clausewitzian sense – disputes!

• Offensive dominant!• Favoured the attacker• Target-rich environment• Heralds an age of perpetual disruptions

• Importance & problem of cyber security

A New Dimension of Conflict

Cyber security

• Successful if it maintains a defence all of the time.• An impossible expectation to meet indefinitely!

• Effective cyber security:• Mitigate the worse effects• Reduce the extent or duration of any disruption

• Measures:1. Technical solutions2. Culture of cyber security3. Resilience measures

A New Dimension of Conflict

Cyber security

• Problem of attribution – apportioning blame and formulating an appropriate response to cyber-attack is problematic because attribution can be extremely difficult:

1. Locating the geographical origins2. Attributing the identity of the attacker3. Identifying the motivations for attack.

• The idea of cyber deterrence:1. Unreliability & high risk of deterrence by punishment strategy.2. High cost, operational inefficiencies, and requirement for state of the art equipment and services of deterrence by denial strategies

A New Dimension of Conflict

The Challenges and Unknowns of Cyber-attack

• Does cyber-attack enjoys a free reign in cyberspace?

• Cyber-attack is not without its challenges – a number of unknowns.

• Complexity of cyber-attack – many moving parts & friction.

• Attacks are:• burdensome & time-consuming• Extensive intelligence collection & surveillance of targets• Penetration of adversarial computer and networks• Risk of discovery

• Effectiveness of offensive cyber weapons undermined by rapid offence-defence cycle.

A 21st Century RMA?

• Various actors use cyberspace & wield cyberpower daily for political objectives.

• Enable existing human activities & types of military power – do not render them obsolete.

• Cyberpower changes the character of human activity. Example:• How institutions organise themselves• Empowering of individuals for economic activity

• Strategy:1. Recast the context of strategic activity i.e. international politics & the

privileged role of the state.2. Long-term implications for how military forces are organised.

A 21st Century RMA?

Recast International Politics

• Impact on:• International relations• The privilege role of the state

• Positive:• Helping developing states accelerate their economic growth.• Enable developing states to develop their military, diplomatic and

cultural instruments of power.• Increase the potency of the instruments of power.• Redistribute power in international politics resulting in net gains for

rising powers & relative losses for established, developed powers.• Empowered individuals, organisations, and non-state actors allowing

them to have global reach & influence

A 21st Century RMA?

Recast International Politics

• Impact on:• International relations• The privilege role of the state

• Positive:• Helping developing states accelerate their economic growth.• Enable developing states to develop their military, diplomatic and cultural

instruments of power.• Increase the potency of the instruments of power.• Redistribute power in international politics resulting in net gains for rising

powers & relative losses for established, developed powers.• Empowered individuals, organisations, and non-state actors allowing them to

have global reach & influence

A 21st Century RMA?

Recast International Politics

• Negative:• Allowed individuals & organisations with negative belligerent intentions to

project offensive cyberpower against target across the world.• Undermines the monopoly of power traditionally enjoyed by states.• Weakening state sovereignty.

• The state will continue to be the primary actor in international politics, despite the irritation felt in capitals around the globe about certain activities undertaken by individuals and groups in cyberspace.

A 21st Century RMA?

Change in the Character of War

• Cyberpower is a useful instrument:• It can be wielded globally, at relative low cost, with a certain degree

of anonymity in peace, crisis, and war.• Enables global reach!• Blur the distinction between war & peace.

• The victims of cyber actions may experience it as a prelude to war & something meriting a military response.• Misperceptions & miscalculations are a major risk.

• Increasingly cyber action constitute a kind of background noise to the everyday dynamics of international relations.

• Creates great efficiencies in how people organise their activities

A 21st Century RMA?

Change in the Character of War

• Cyberpower creates great efficiencies in how people organise their activities.

• Magnifies the ability of individuals to:• Control operations.• Transmit virtually unlimited amounts of data across the globe at almost no

cost.• Create opportunities that were unimaginable only a few decades ago.

A 21st Century RMA?

Change in the Character of War“Modern militaries are also subject to these greater efficiencies and

magnified effects thanks to cyberpower, creating leaner force structures and more automated capabilities, which place a premium on recruiting

more highly skilled personnel. Military hierarchies are likely to shrink in size, as will numbers of personnel to staff them. There is a growing

reliance on automated capabilities and systems, such as remotely piloted vehicles, and cost of training even the lowest-ranking servicemen and women is increasingly due to the complex technical skills required in modern militaries. The implications of these cyberpower trends within

militaries are debatable, and cannot be divorced from the context of how, when, and for what purpose military force will be used in the twenty-first

century. Nevertheless, it is plausible to suggest that as military organisation and structure changes due to the pervasiveness of cyberpower, when and how military force will be used might also changed. These changes might culminate in a twenty-first century revolution in military affairs

(RMA) if the lead to new military doctrines, force structure, and changes in the conduct of war” [emphasis added]

Examples of Cyber attacks

The Stuxnet malware attack on an Iranian nuclear facility. Possible perpetrators – Israel and the USA? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g0pi4J8auQ

The Sony Hack – Possible perpetrator – North Koreahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YvRk8EfRHM

On 4 December 2010, a group calling itself the Pakistan Cyber Army hacked the website of India's top investigating agency, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

View this informative timeline of cyber incidents on the NATO websitehttp://www.nato.int/docu/review/2013/cyber/timeline/EN/index.htm

Global developments in Cyber Security

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3K0WyTysaQThe establishment of Cyber brigades for eg US Cyber Command, Bureau 121 North Korea, British Army 77 Brigade, Chinese PLA Unit 61398 etc.

The appointment of top level “Cyber Czars”

The establishment of government led Cyber Incident Response Teams

The establishment of coding or cyber warrior training programmes at high school level. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLLmf080J_I

Cyber security testing for big companies using“ethical hackers”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLLmf080J_I

South Africa and Cyber Security

“Despite a low level of internet penetration, South Africa ranks third in the world after the USA and the United Kingdom in terms of cyber security attacks encountered.” CSIR https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266145673_Development_of_a_South_African_Cybersecurity_Policy_Implementation_Framework

Cybercrimes and Cyber Securities Bill – (Currently awaiting Parliamentary approval.)Many people will be asking – Do we need it? But cybercrime is on the increase and the Cybercrimes and Cybersecurity Bill aims to keep the people of South Africa safe from criminals, terrorists and other states. It also consolidates South Africa’s cybercrime laws into one place. Essentially, it aims to stop cybercrime and improve the security of South Africa.http://cybercrime.org.za/law/

Government has still not introduced the long awaited Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT)

Remember Cyber Security starts with YOU!!