Ukraine – Russiahttps://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7fcbOgrLOAGazRHX2Y4MjY1V0k/view?usp=sharing 

Global Negotiations II

David AltmayerSteven Bay

Matt DanielsRosa M. Panadero M.

Cindy Posey

Crimea on the center stage of the conflict

Two options

• Russian-directed Eurasian Customs Union (ECU)

• Yanukovych moved toward an agreement with the Russian-directed Eurasian Customs Union (ECU), which includes Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan at present.

• EU membership on the horizon

• President Yanukovych's decided to back away from establishing a free trade and further political cooperation between Ukraine and the EU,

Ukraine: The Gas to Heat Europe

Crisis in 2012

Gas to Europe and sanctions to Ukraine

December 2013

Agreement and $ 20 billion for Ukraine

Barricades in the streets

Pro EU barricades in Kiev

Reviving the Soviet Union collapse

Ukraine, September 2014

January 2015• The detention

of a female Ukrainian pilot

• Thimoshenko at the Ukrainian parliament

February 2015

The Protagonists and Their Negotiation Style

Angela Merkel (Germany)

Germany’s Negotiating Style

• Prepare negotiations very well• Planned timelines and rules of communication:

listening, no interruptions• Respect the agenda• Authenticity is important: “No, I can´t” is true.• Compromise in negotiations• Conflicts are handled openly and directly• Arguments and facts on the table, no emotions• Separate personal issues

German Techniques

• Negotiation = achieving a goal• Build trust and relationship after the

successful completion of initial agreements. • Conservative approach: avoid risks• Reputation of being “over-insured”: Risk is

highly calculated to be as secured as possible, no unexpected problems later

• Go back to check and double check items

François Hollande (France)

France’s Negotiating Style

• Dominant orientation, distance between the parties• Suspicious of early familiarity• Hierarchy is highly valued but tone is cordial• Unroll the program at the beginning and discuss in a

sequential manner• Risk averse: do not make a decision until reviewed and

understood all possible consequences.• Decision by high ranks• Rely on written communications, in French if possible

France's Techniques

• Trust and relationship facilitate negotiations• Being oriented and indirect communication• Reluctance to manage conflict openly because

they’re concerned about the relationship• Expressive orientation: emotional outburst

may help clear the air, but also used as a tactic• Tend to hold on to traditions

Barack Obama (United States)

John Kerry(United States)

United States’ Negotiating Style

• Straightforward and direct fashion • Conflicts are discussed openly• Win win perspective• Make decisions rather than research (“Analysis

paralysis”)

United States’ Technique

• Risk takers and fast decision makers• One member making friends with the other side

while other team member negotiates aggressively• Use humor to create a pleasant environment• Despite a “No”, there is still room for agreement• “We can agree to disagree”, to debate in a cordial

manner

Petro Poroshenko (Ukraine)

Ukraine’s Negotiating Style • Distributive and contingency bargaining• Competitive and adversarial, but less than Russia• Focus on the near-term benefit• Zero-sum game• Slow down to exert time pressure• Concessions never come easily• Attempt to make the other feel guilty• Grimance• Introduce distractions • Do not consider serious commitments• CORRUPTION AND BRIBERY ARE COMMON and ILLEGAL

Yanukovitch (Ukraine President up to 2014)

Vladimir Putin (Russia)

Russia’s Negotiating Style

• Patient• Persistent• Stubborn• Very difficult to obtain concessions from them• Make minor concessions while asking for

major returns• Compromise is seen as a sign of weakness• Deceptive techniques

Russia’s Deceptive Techniques• Tell lies• Send fake non-verbal messages• Pretending to be disinterested in the whole deal

or in single concessions• Misrepresent value• Make false demands and concessions• Play stupid or attempt to mislead the other• “Good cop, bad cop”• Claim “Limited Authority” to state they need

approval but it is not true

Angela Merkel vs. Vladimir Putin

Trust or Distrust?

Germany – Russia - France