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043-0183
Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to measure contract rules in complex project operations
Maria Kapsali & Jens Roehrich
• Abstract
How to use analytic induction and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA)
To measure the effectiveness of contract rules in complex program operations
fsQCA is useful to simultaneously explore deductively causal complexity of variable configurations in complex operations and exploit the richness of in-depth qualitative data
• Why fsQCA
• We seek causal pathways to the same outcome, which may be achieved in different combinations of conditions, and that causation must be understood in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions
• Complex causal connections (causal complexity) are analysed using Boolean logic to explain pathways to a particular outcome. Complex and multiple patterns of causation may be explored
– statistical techniques assume that social phenomena are driven by unifinality, additivity, and symmetry, therefore it is difficult to model equifinal, conjunctural and asymmetric set relations in terms of sufficiency and necessity (Fiss, 2007: 1190)
– qualitative (written and especially verbal) data formulations are largely set theoretic in nature (Fiss, 2007; Ragin 1987, 2009) we need to study cases inductively as configurations and not as independent, analytically separate settings to acquire measurements from
• Why fsQCA (2)
• Qualitative comparative analysis has the advantage that it may not require as many cases as a case survey.
comparative research designs involve small and intermediate-size Ns (e.g., 5-50), but this range of cases is often too large for in-depth case analysis to retain patterns (analysis becomes too complicated), but also too few for conventional statistical techniques
• It can be used with previously conducted studies as well as with new studies, and thus encourages an evolutionary and integrative approach to knowledge creation. It allows easy integration of both qualitative and quantitative forms of evidence, and is transparent and systematic
• ‘fuzzy’ logic is a recent refinement of QCA so that it is not necessary to dichotomise variables so precisely and allows for more variation in set theoretic membership (continuous instead of binary)
• Used in : sociology, psychology, political science and history
Research design
Research Question
Which are the contract rules that successfully elicit compliant behaviour in programs?
Methodology Retroduction based on Critical Realism (Downward, 2008: 314)
Purpose Measure the characteristics of a social phenomenon
Find generalized patterns of complex causality to develop theory and assert plausible contextualized explanations
Instrumentation Qualitative multiple case studies (N=23)
Data 120 in-depth, semi-structured interviews and 23 project contracts/evaluation reports
Analysis (configurational) analysis of multiple conjuctural causality through fuzzy-set analysis (Ragin, 2008)
example
• Contracting Theories
Our aim: the middle way – systemic contract
Contracting theories
Type of studies
Focus of studies Result
Classical deductive modularity in contract structures incomplete
Neo-Classical inductive arbitration, collaboration incomplete
Relational inductive trust, commitment, reputation, networks, relational ties etc
incomplete
Middle-way ? retroductive combinations of factors, both modular and relational, into the causal mechanisms between rules and outcomes
?
level of complexity in transactions
Stable short- term relations Rational incentives Easy prediction of behaviour
Mediation for conflict Long- term diverse relations Relational networks, trust, commitment irrational incentives
Diverse, autonomous actors with mixed interdependencies and timings Really unpredictable relations
High
Medium
Low
Classical contracts Neo-classical + Relational contracts Middle way contracts ‘our study’
Fuzzy-set qualitative analysis in multiple case studies
1. Contract rules
Classify rules
Identify conditions and
outcomes
Build an analytic frame
2. Analysis
Anchors, and thresholds
(consistency and coverage)
Content analysis of case studies to assign values to conditions and
outcomes
Build truth table and retrieve
configurations from the software
3. Interpretation of configurations
Compare and explain the
configurations
Look again into the cases
Select configurations with the highest
significance (consistency-
coverage)
Minimize configurations
4.Conclusion
Explain causal complexity
between the conditions
Suggest which are the successful
results
Build a conceptual
model
Linkage control rules to prevent opportunism
Practical decision rules for generating all possible control responses
Emancipatory autonomy rules
formalization of action accountability rewards incentives obligations penalties - punishment exclusionfragmentation in supply chain standardization of tasks
communication at the interfaces co-decision processes formal meetings, boards, panels, conferences evaluation, feedback loops overlap and sharing complement of skills negotiations regarding the definition of the goal, planning, monitoring and executing participation of users
Rules that empower to self-regulate and self-organize knowledge creation coupling and interdependence adjust processes and habits leverage for change
The rules in the contracts categorized into three conditions (Smith, 2006)
• Classification of conditions – inductive approach for selecting Amenta and Poulsen (1994) and Yamasaki and Rihoux (2009)
Conditions Outcomes
Linkage rules
*Compliant (1)
Mostly compliant (0.75)
Ambiguous (0.50)
Insufficiently compliant (0.25)
Non-compliant (0)
Practical rules
*
Emancipatory rules
fsQCA anchors
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1Not significant less significant cross-over point mostly significant highly
significantthe point of maximum ambiguity
Analytic frame
The analytic frame (conditions and outcomes) and with the fsQCA measure scale
Program PPP (6 projects) IST/eTEN (14 projects)
EARSS (3 projects)
Nature Highly complex Medium to highly complex
Simple
Duration Up to 30 years 18-36 months 6 years
Description Multiple national projects for the construction of healthcare facilities
Multiple transnational projects for the creation and deployment of telemedicine
Multiple national projects for the creation of a European ICT epidemiology network
Contract type
Outcome Based non-standard contract
Performance Based contract - Classical
Memorandum of agreement Highly relational – minimum critical specifications
Simple Medium to highly ComplexHighly complex
Contract structure
Linkage Practical Emancipatory Outcome
EARSS 0.75 0.75 0.75 10.75 0.25 0.75 0.50.5 0.75 0.5 1
IST - eTEN
1 1 0.5 0.750.75 0.5 0.5 1
1 0.5 0.25 0.251 0.5 0.25 0.751 1 0.5 01 1 0.5 0.251 0.5 0.25 01 0.25 0.25 11 0.25 0.25 0.751 0.5 0.5 0.51 0.25 0.5 01 0.5 0.25 11 0.25 0.5 0.251 0.5 0.75 0
PPP 0.75 1 0 0.250.75 0.75 0.25 00.5 0.5 0.25 10.75 0.75 0 0.50.5 0.5 0.25 10.5 0.75 0.25 0.75
Truth Table
with the values of each condition for each
project
Positive Behaviour Significant minimized configurations consistency coverage combined
EARSS ~linkage*~practical 1 0.200000 0.444972
practical 1 0.700000 0.832466
linkage*~practical*emancipatory 0.8 0.400000 0.565685
linkage*practical*~emancipatory 1 0.400000 0.629285
IST-eTEN ~linkage*emancipatory 1 0.038462 0.195133
~linkage 1 0.038462 0.195133
PPP ~linkage*practical*emancipatory 0.750000 0.214286 0.376070
~linkage*~emancipatory 0.888889 0.571429 0.736788
~practical*~emancipatory 0.857143 0.428571 0.624500
~linkage 0.888889 0.571429 0.736788
Cross case configurations ~linkage ~linkage*(emancipatory + practical + practical * ~emancipatory + ~practical *emancipatory)
The resulting configurations
Within case configurations
Discussion: what do the results say
The rules depend on a) interdependence and b) modularity within the programs
PPP IST/eTEN EARSS
Mixed Interdependencies Low interdependence High interdependence
Medium Modularity High Modularity High Modularity
less linkage minimum linkage minimum linkage
combine practical & emancipatory emancipatory practical
averse emancipatory
Simple Medium to highly ComplexHighly complex
Conclusions and Implications • refute the idea of internalized complexity (Ashby, 1958)
• or that a complex contract is unavoidable (Eggleston et al., 2000)
• or that a contract should be complete and optimal (classical theory)
• or that relationships matter more than rules (relational theory)
balance of rules
The systemic contract is flexible and enabling, directs evolutionary-emergent action, not just controls (Remington, 2011)
• identify which patterns of behaviour in a complex system are predictable and can be standardized
• provide platforms for patterns of behaviour that self-emerge and are uncontrollable but highly desirable in situations require high interdependence and flexibility
• contracts should be purposely incomplete, focusing on adaptation and interdependence and use control to a measure
analytic induction can merge the mode of confirmatory analysis used in management approaches with the exploratory nature of work in
complexity theories (Phelan, 1998)
Contact details
Dr Jens RoehrichAssistant Professor in Operations and Supply Management
School of Management
Information, Decision and Operations Group University of Bath e: [email protected]: www.bath.ac.uk/management
Dr Maria Kapsali
Browaldh fellow - Assistant Professor in Projects, Innovation and Networks
Umeå School of Business and Economics Umeå Universitet
Biblioteksgränd 6, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
t: +46 (0)90 786 5441
w: http://uk.linkedin.com/in/mariakapsali
skype: maria.kapsali25
twitter: marukapsalis
• Appendices
• Retroduction: Logical reasoning • Critical Realism • Details on the 23 projects
• Why fsQCA (3)
Theory Generalization
How deduction, induction and retroduction work through empirics and theory (Alvesson and Skoldberg, 1994)
Empirical Specific
Deduction InductionRetroduction
Deduction Logical inferences from major and minor “ if ” assumptions – hypotheses form probability statements when all conditions being equal the higher past frequency the higher the probability to inference being generalizable
Formally correct but sometimes empirically flawed- it depends on the “correctness” of assumptions
Induction Logical inferences from specific cases to the general rules- construct the origins or preconditions of a rule, piece by piece – focus on causation Highly context specific – not generalizable
Inductive thinking is susceptible to habit, subjective experience and expectation
Abduction The act of seeing something anew, a “flash” where you connect pieces of information to understand an unexpected rule – application of common sense to find the most plausible explanation
Abductive reasoning is comparative judgment and its clarity is non systematic and questionable
Retroduction Aims to assert the necessary and sufficient causes and preconditions to be produced or reproduced, for the phenomenon to come into existence
Makes comparative judgment systematic and relatively general
The four types of scientific abstraction – logical reasoning (as in Bertilsson, 2004).
RULE and CASE to RESULT
CASE and RESULT to RULE
RULE and RESULT to CASE
Core Ontological Assumptions Reality as a concrete process
Assumptions About Human Nature Man as an adaptor
Basic Epistemological Stance To study systems, process, change
Favored Metaphors Organism
Table 6.1: The ontological assumptions of CR
Real
Actual
Empirical
Contingent conditions
Triggers
Observation Experience
Intrinsic objects Mechanisms
Events and tendencies Patterns
may or may not fire
may or may not be observable
The ontology of CR (Modell, 2005)
(Downward, 2008: 314).
Epistemology Role of theory
What is real is not given (there are levels of reality). The world has both
forced and emergent structures. People’s involvement with structures is
transformational
Theory is a conjecture about the connectedness of
events and the causal sequences produced by generative mechanisms
Nature of explanation Method of study
Something is explained if it is allocated a place at the end of a causal
sequence. There may be multiple causes of a single event coming from
the context. Contextualized explanation
The aim is to produce a theory which accurately
identifies causal mechanisms
Retroduction Assert the necessary and sufficient causes and preconditions to produce or reproduce the phenomenon/event
Makes comparative judgment (abduction) systematic and relatively general
Projects Performance Bundle Contract length Contract nature and valueEARSS 1 Concurrent national project 1998 – 2006 Minimum specifications EARSS 2 Concurrent national project 1998 – 2006 **EARSS 3 Concurrent national project 1998 – 2006 **IST GALEN Open Source ontology development 1997 - 1999 Classical- performanceIST ODIN European nursing informatics and telematics 1999 - 2001 **
IST TELECARE Patient Telemonitoring Ultra Low Discomfort Vital Signs Sensors over Mobile Networks 2001- 2005 ** € 1.8 m
IST PROMPT Peripheral Regions Oriented Measure 1999 - 2001 ** € 512.419
IST M2DM Multi-Access telematic Management of Diabetes Mellitus 2001 - 2005 ** € 2.100.578
eTEN AIDMAN feasibility study protocol models, effectiveness and performance for deployment 1999 - 2000 ** €0.73m
eTEN EURODONOR definition, specification realisation of European Organ Data Exchange Portal Data Base 2003 - 2004 ** €3.19m
eTEN EVITAL validate the European market for remote monitoring service 2002 - 2004 ** €2.13m
eTEN MEDASHIP Medical consultation Assistance for ships service 2002 - 2003 ** €2.73m
eTEN MEDCONTI-NETanalyse market demand for a Home Care system in cross-national context 2002 - 2003 ** €2.63m
eTEN IREMMA establish a trans-European network, services for environmental diseases, Asthma Allergy 2002 - 2004 ** €1.82m
eTEN TELE-REMEDY feasibility study, commercial validation and large-scale deployment 1998 - 1999 ** €3.2m
eTEN MEDICATE
Medical Diagnosis, Communications and Analysis Throughout Europe for monitor asthma patients in own homes 1999 - 2000 ** €3.67m
eTEN NIVEMES develop an international network of Telemedicine providers and services 1996 - 1998 ** €3m
Hospital A Design, build, finance and operate (DBFO); construction of new hospital; hard and soft service FM
30 years Classical - Output Non-standard £150m
Hospital B 30 years ** Standard (version 3) £150m
Waste Management A DBFO; construction of new waste treatment plants and stations; no waste collection
25 years ** Non-standard £35m
Waste Management B 25 years ** Non-standard £100m
Fire and Rescue Service A DBFO; construction of new training facility; hard (estate) and soft service FM
25 years ** Non-standard £20m
Fire and Rescue Service B 25 years ** Non-standard £10m
The four types of projects in this order (top-down): EARSS, IST, PPP and eTEN