Water agriculture and poverty-trying to unravel the complexity

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  • Water agriculture and poverty

    trying to unravel complexity

    Simon Cook, Myles Fisher, Meike Andersson, Jorge Rubiano, Mark Giordano and BFP teams

  • Linkages between water, agriculture & poverty

    1.Why care?

    2.What linkages do we know about? Logical: what do we know from studies?

    Evidence: which seem the most influential?

    3.How do these linkages work? Identifying interventions to reduce poverty

    Linking local, global and basin scales

  • 1 Why do we need to know?

  • Agriculture and water receive $bns(as separate sectors)

    Aid for water supply and sanitation, 1973-2002

    Aid by sector, 2002

  • World food crisis

    Medium-term Impacts Demand outstripping supply

    Increasing food prices

    Decreasing food security for poorest

    Increasing costs of inputs

  • World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    1960 1990 2025

    Africa

    World

    Asia

    MENA

    000 m3

  • Increasing demand by all users

    Agriculture uses > 70% of water

  • In summary

    More peoplemore development

    need more food (already takes > 70% of water)

    need more water

    other demands also increasing

  • Agriculture greatest user: Demand increasing

    Devaraj de Condappa

    Volta

  • 2 Drawing the links between water, agriculture and poverty

    Warning! Complexity ahead

  • And how to go from Global

  • to Local?

  • The general picture

  • (Peden et al. 2007)

    We know That people use water in many ways

  • We know That agriculture occupies PART of a development trajectory

    Agricultur e contribution to growth (%)

    World Bank, 2007

  • Agriculture vs GNI

    -10,000

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

    Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)

    G

    r

    o

    s

    s

    N

    a

    t

    i

    o

    n

    a

    l

    I

    n

    c

    o

    m

    e

    (

    $

    /

    c

    a

    p

    i

    t

    a

    )

    We know That the poorest tend to rely on agriculture

    Size of bubble proportional to rural

    population

    World Bank, 2007

  • We know That water availability is NOT the only, (or main) driver

    GNI vs Water

    -10,000

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

    Water availability (m3/cap)

    G

    N

    I

    (

    $

    /

    c

    a

    p

    P

    P

    P

    )

    Size of bubble proportional to agricutlure contribution to GDP

    Per capita income vs. water availability

    World Bank, 2007

  • What does this mean in basins? A few observations

  • So Francisco: Drought is one factorof many

    Marcello Torres et al., 2008

    Drought

    Poor education

    Access tocredit

  • Karkheh: Farmers not the poorestsituation modified by politics

    0.00

    0.05

    0.10

    0.15

    0.20

    0.25

    0.30

    0.35

    0.40

    Une

    mpl

    oyed

    Man

    ager

    Cle

    rkTr

    adep

    erso

    n

    Farm

    er

    Prod

    uctio

    n wor

    ker

    Uns

    kille

    d w

    orke

    r

    KB

    Cou

    ntry

    Poverty lines from household income and expenditure data

    Karkheh BFP team

  • Basic concept: Need Water productivity to respond faster than demand

    crisis

    response

    WP

    time

    Demand line

  • Volta

    Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water consumed] much lower than potential

    Potential= 1-2 kg/m3IRD, 2007

  • Mekong: water productivity responding partially to demand

    0.000

    0.200

    0.400

    0.600

    0.800

    1990 1995 2000 2005

    Year

    W

    a

    t

    e

    r

    p

    r

    o

    d

    u

    c

    t

    i

    v

    i

    t

    y

    ,

    k

    g

    /

    m

    3 Laos

    Thailand

    Cambodia

    Vietnam

    Vietnam Central

    highlands

    Vietnam Mekong

    River Delta

    Mac Kirby, 2007

  • But.. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets

    Complex but understandable

    Dam developmentChanging land use, shifting cultivation,sustainability, sedimentation

    Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity

    Fish & environmental impacts of upstream, competition land

    Salinisation, water quality, highly developed

    Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008

  • 3 How do water and agriculture combine to influence

    livelihoods

  • Water productivity

    Water availability

    Non-poor

    Improve outcome from a given use

    3 Coupling water, agriculture and poverty alleviation

    Poor

    Developing / protecting NR assets Increasing

    Water productivity

    Improve collective outcome by distribution

    Increase collective gainBenefit-sharing of multiple uses

  • Global -to local links

    GLOBALwater and food systems considered separately

    both impact on livelihoods

    Local ScaleLocal systems considered individually

    Local impact not referenced to broader systems

    Basin scaleSystems interact through(Unspecified) transfers

  • Summary

    Water and food systems both impact on poverty: Driven by development demand

    Water productivity measure of response/activity

    At local scale, linkages between water, food & poverty are direct, non-crossing

    Cross-over between food and water occurs at basin-scale.

  • Thank you

  • Volta Scenarios under climate change

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

    Year of simulation

    L

    a

    k

    e

    V

    o

    l

    t

    a

    s

    t

    o

    r

    a

    g

    e

    (

    k

    m

    3

    )

    Wetter scenario

    Reference scenario

    Drier scenario

    Top of inactive (70 km3)

    Storage capacity (148 km3)

    De Condappa et al., 2008

    Comfortable

    Vulnerable

    Critical