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Hawai„i 100% RPS Goals An exceptional journey or a woeful path?
IPS Connect 2016 Rick Rocheleau
Hawaii Natural Energy Institute
University of Hawaii at Manoa
December 2, 2016
Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI)
• Founded in 1974, established in statute in 2007
• Mandated by statute to support state efforts to reduce use of fossil fuels.
• Hawaii barrel tax funds near term projects to support RPS goals
Organized Research Unit in School of Ocean and Earth Science
and Technology at University of Hawaii
Areas of Interest
• Alternative Fuels
• Electrochemical Power Systems
• Renewable Power Generation
• Building Efficiency
• Transportation
• Grid Integration
Functions
· Research & Development
· Technology Validation &
Implementation
· Analysis & Modeling
· State Energy Policy Support
· Education and Training
2
Crude Oil Supplies to Hawaii
100% of
the crude
oil for the
State is
imported
Hawaii Department of
Business, Economic
Development &
Tourism
3
Energy Insecurity
• Hawaii is the most petroleum dependent state in the nation
• ~70% of electricity generated from oil
• Over 40 million barrels of petroleum were imported for energy
use in 2015
• Highest electricity prices in the nation
ELECTRICITY 32%
JET FUEL 34%
GASOLINE/ 27%
MARINE FUEL
OTHER 7%
Abundant and Diverse Renewable Resources
Aggressive Clean Energy Policy
Highest RPS Target
in the United States
40% by 2030
• Tax incentives
• Net metering
• Feed in tariffs
Strong Hawaii Policies
5
Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)
The State of Hawaii, US DOE, and local utility
launched HCEI in 2008 to transform Hawaii to
a 70% clean energy economy by 2030:
2008
2009 2011 Policy Evolution Reflecting
Market Realities …
Amended the definition of "renewable electrical
energy" to include, customer-sited,
grid-connected renewable energy generation
2015 Major Policy Evolution …
• 100% RPS
• Net metering changes
Hawai„i: 4 electric utilities;
6 unique island grids
1200MW
80MW
5MW
200MW
190MW • Isolated – no interconnections
• Wind and solar well correlated
• Land availability and community
acceptance
5MW
RPS
30% by 2020
70% by 2040
100% by 2045
High electricity costs offers opportunity to engage new
technologies and solutions
4
7
Economics and Policies led Hawaii to highest per
capita solar in the US
Over 77,000 photovoltaic
systems interconnected or
approved by Hawaiian Electric
Companies.
Over 26,000 PV arrays
installed or approved in 2015
( compared to 14,000 in 2014)
HECO has installed or
approved PV for 17% of its
customers including 32% of
single-family homes
• 2009 – 2015: Net Energy Metering
• 2015-2016 Grid Supply
• 2016-? Self Supply
Applications
down
Regulatory Changes and Technical Improvement Allowed
High Circuit Penetration
High PV Circuit Penetration Levels
> 250% of daytime minimum load Manage distribution level
impacts of PV
New regulatory and policy for
smarter growth
• Time of use pricing
• Technology agnostic grid
services tariffs
• Integration with transportation
• Storage (energy and ancil
services)
• Demand response
• Smart grids, smart inverters
Oahu Circuit Penetration Map
Renewable Mix, Penetration, and Solution
Varies by Island
9
Oʻahu
Molokaʻi
Maui
Hawaiʻi Lanaʻi 34%
15%
17%
47% % Renewable
~23%
Kauaʻi (KIUC): 78MWp
52.6 MW PV / 7 MW biomass / 9 MW hydro
(+6.6 MW PV under review)
Installed PV: 67% of System Peak
Maui (MECO) 202 MWp
74 MW PV / 72 MW Wind
(+40 MW PV approved or under review)
Installed PV & Wind:
72% of Sys. Peak
Oahu (HECO) 1,206 MWp
329 MW PV / 99 MW wind/ 69 MW WTE
(+227 MW PV & wind approved or under review)
Installed PV & Wind:
35% of System Peak
Hawaiʻi (HELCO) 192 MWp
75 MW PV / 30 MW wind /
38 MW geothermal / 16 MW hydro
(+31 MW PV approved or under review)
Installed PV & Wind:
55% of System Peak
Kaua‟i
Total PV (installed, approved, under review) = 835MW
~ 50% of peak; ~60% of avg daytime load
KIUC Battery Energy Storage Systems • 2011-12: Xtreme, Advanced Lead Acid, 4.5 MW/3 MWh (regulation, reserves)
• 2015: SAFT, Lithium Ion, 6 MW/4.6 MWh (regulation, reserves)
• 2017: Tesla Lithium Ion, 13 MW/52 MWh (load shifting), coupled with 13 MW Solar
City PV plant to provide dispatchable solar
Kauai – System Solutions
Pair storage with project
developers
• Reduce risk
• Use for grid support, not
individual project support
73% solar penetration
89% renewable
11
Is Low-hanging Fruit Gone?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
Biofuels
Wind
CPV
DPV
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016
Last 5 Years
Last 9 Quarters
Source: Hawaiian Electric Key Performance Metrics,
https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/about-us/key-performance-
metrics/renewable-energy
Power Systems Modeling for Grid Planning
• Established and experienced team (HNEI, GE)
• Strong advisory committee HPUC, CA, DBEDT, NREL, HECO,
MECO, HELCO, energy developers
• Models and procedures accepted by broad range of stakeholders
• Seven studies completed <www.hnei.Hawaii.edu
13
Production Cost
Modeling
Cost / Benefit
Analysis
Power Flow
Analysis Mitigations
Current studies focused on dynamic stability, grid strength,
impact/value of mitigation measures
Pathways to Higher Renewables Identified
1
4
Oahu Only Growth
Gen-Tie Only
Maui Grid-Tie Only
Gen-Tie and Maui Grid-Tie
Source: Hawaii RPS Study
Enablers
• Flexible thermal fleet
–Faster quick starts
–Deeper turn-down
–Faster ramps
• Generation Diversity
• Smaller contingencies
• Improved forecasting
• Reserves from renewables
• Smart Inverters
• Demand response
• Energy storage
• Electric vehicles
System Impacts at “Modest” Penetration Oahu: 25% available wind and solar
(RPS Study, 2015)
1
5
Average March day • Steep generation ramps am
and pm
• Little direct support for peak
• Modest curtailment
High Renewables March day • Steeper generation ramps
• Significant curtailment
• Dynamic stability issues?
Storage Effectiveness Advanced grid, high W&S penetration
16
• Wind allows higher inititial penetration
• Storage ineffective for wind due to resource variability
• Maximize wind…..add solar…..complement with storage (cost and resource dependent)
Deliv
ere
d e
nerg
y (
GW
h)
Storage capacity (GWh)
Hours to charge battery:
High/low wind days
are highly clustered
Grid Systems Technologies Advanced Research
Team
17
• Interdisciplinary team of faculty, professionals, post-doctoral fellows and
students at HNEI (includes over 100 years cumulative utility and regulatory
experience)
• Serves to integrate HNEI efforts across other technology areas
• Expertise includes grid modeling and analysis; smart grid and micro-grid
R&D; application of grid storage; power system planning and operations;
energy policy
• Strong partnerships with Hawaii, national and international organizations
(especially Asia-Pacific)
Established team to develop, test and evaluate advanced grid architectures,
enabling policies, and new technologies and methods for effective integration
of renewable energy resources and power system optimization
photos courtesy of Altairnano
Grid Scale BESS Projects (HNEI)
Haw‟i 10 MW Wind farm at Upolu Point Hawaii Island (1MW)
• Frequency regulation and wind smoothing (4 years, > 6000cycles)
Molokai Secure Renewable Microgrid (2MW)
• Operating reserves, (fault management), frequency regulation,
power smoothing, and peak shifting (<50ms response)
Campbell Park industrial feeder with high penetration (1MW)
• Power smoothing, voltage and VAr support
Laboratory testing of single cells to assess performance,
durability, and state-of-health
1
8
Conduct experiments to assess/optimize BESS performance and
lifetime for high value grid applications
Power smoothing from 10MW Hawi wind farm
Frequency Response Adjustable Deadband
Reduce battery cycling while
maintaining grid support.
Bat
tery
Po
wer
1000kW
-1000kW
60 Hz Grid Frequency
Adjustable Slope is the Gain in MW/Hz
Adjustable Deadband in
mHz
19
• Black: BESS off
• Pink: 30MW/Hz, no deadband
• Red: 20MW/Hz, 20MHz
deadband.
• Lower gain with deadband
provides 65% of value using
1/3rd the cycling of the battery
• Impact on utility generators
under evaluation
Frequency Regulation
Background (OFF) Frequency Variability
[Hz]
Background (OFF) Frequency Variability
[Hz]
(ON
) F
requen
cy V
aria
bil
ity [
Hz]
E
ner
gy T
hro
ugh
pu
t [k
Wh
]
20
• Develop and validate advanced functionality of smart inverter
• implement enhanced capability “smart” inverters on operating utility
distribution feeders with a high penetration of rooftop PV
• Employ detailed distribution modeling and high-resolution field data
to develop advanced inverter settings
• Stabilized voltage profile across the length of the distribution feeder
can maximize the opportunity for conservation voltage reduction
(CVR)
21
One of four related projects on Maui,
having partners in common and shared
hardware, results, and lessons learned
Advanced Renewable Microgrids Opportunities to extend knowledge secured across Asia-Pacific region
Coconut Island is
an opportunity to
test advanced
technologies and
microgrid control
strategies for high
reliability loads in a
challenging marine
environment
JBPHH is an
opportunity to develop
a grid modernization
strategy and action
plans to enhance
service reliability and
achieve high PV
penetration on a large-
scale microgrid
Moku o Lo’e DC Microgrid
(Coconut Island)
Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam Microgrid
MOLOKAI
~ 2.5 MW of Distributed
Rooftop PV Molokai is an
opportunity to
address very high
levels of distributed
PV while
maintaining grid
reliability and
resiliency
22
500 kW Grid 5 MW Grid
50+ MW Grid
Molokai Island Microgrid
Curtailment with excess solar
23
Minimum Dispatchable Generation
Net
Load
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Day of the Year 0
100%
Solar saturation: no curtailment
1.5X “solar capacity: 1% over 204 hours
2X “solar capacity: 6% over 840 hours
The Path Forward • Develop implementable plans based on reality of current grid
operations
• Engage and keep engaging as many stakeholder groups as possible to align
goals and approaches
• “No-regrets’ plans for long-term growth with consideration of long-term goals.
• Embrace innovation and technological change but make decisions
based on “reality”
• Develop policy that offers freedom of solutions - tailored for
specific grid systems
• Don‟t forget reliability – small changes in unit outage rates can have
big impact on “Loss of Load Expectations
25
MAHALO
For more information, contact:
Rick Rocheleau
Hawaii Natural Energy Institute
1680 East-West Road, POST 109
Honolulu, Hawaii 96822
Office: (808) 956-8346
Mobile: (808) 389-9944
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.hnei.hawaii.edu