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Konsumentanalytiker i Norges sjømatråd Amund Bråthens presentasjon på Miniseminar Laks i Oslo 21. juni 2012. Om konsumentutvikling av laks i Europa.
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CONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT OF SALMON
IN EUROPE (CASE: FRANCE, SPAIN, UK AND GERMANY)
Amund Bråthen, Norwegian Seafood Council
Oslo, June 2012
DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON
• The numbers are representative
what the households are buying for
their home consumption.
• The numbers does not include
HoReCa.
• The data is panel data collected
through Europanel.
• Volume is presented as product
weight.
«EUROPEAN» INDEX BASED UPON VALUE AND
VOLUME IN FRANCE, SPAIN AND UK
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SALES (VOLUME) OF
FRESH, FROZEN SALMON PRODUCTS.
95,00
100,00
105,00
110,00
115,00
120,00
125,00
130,00
135,00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ind
ex 2
006=
100
Indexed MAT volume for France, Spain and UK (all products)
Total fresh
Total frozen
Total smoked
Indexed MAT volume of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
STRONG VALUE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH
SALMON – WEAKER FOR FROZEN AND SMOKED
90,00
100,00
110,00
120,00
130,00
140,00
150,00
160,00
13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indexed value for France, Spain and UK (all products)
Total fresh
Total frozen
Total smoked
Indexed MAT value of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
PRICE DECREASE FOR FROZEN AND FRESH
SALMON IN THE THREE COUNTRIES
90,0
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
120,0
125,0
130,0
135,0
13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indexed price for France, Spain and UK (all products)
Total fresh
Total frozen
Total smoked
Indexed MAT Price of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
MARKET FOCUS
YtD P05/April Fresh Frozen Smoked
Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price
France 53,9 % -17,3% 0,1% 5,3% -1,5% 4,0%
Germany 24,3% -8,2% -12,3% 9,2% 6,5% -6,7%
UK 11,6% 2,9% -1,4% 1,1% 34,3% -10,2%
Spain 29,7% -14,7% 1,3% 6,7% 0,7% 0,1%
DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF
SALMON – P01-P05
Volume and price development Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh, Frozen and Smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
SALMON INCREASES MARKET SHARES IN
SPAIN AND UK.
STABLE IN FRANCE
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
13 2 4 6 8 1012 1 3 5 7 9 1113 2 4
2010 2011 2012
Salmons market share of seafood sold for home
consumption (value based MAT)
France
Spain
UK
Johan har du et bilde av
en fiskedisk med laks…
YTD P05 AVERAGE FRESH FISH PRICES IN
FRANCE
Price for fresh fish Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC
5,43 5,57
7,50 8,70 8,99
9,59 9,94 10,05 10,43 10,79 11,08 11,44 11,67 11,94 11,95 12,15 12,18 12,50
13,28 13,44
14,33 14,38 14,63
17,55 17,65 17,83
18,76 19,34
MACKEREL
SARDINES
PANGAS
HAKE
KIPPER
PLAICE
TROUT
COALFISH
SEABREAM
LING
MORUE
PERCH
WHITING
SAUMONETTE
OTHER FISH
DAB
POLLACK
Grand Total
RAY
SEA BASS
HADDOCK
COD
SALMON
SCORPION FISH
ANGLER
RED MULLET
SOLE
TUNA
YtD P05 2011
5,85 5,92
7,65 9,48 9,52 9,96 10,05 10,20
10,91 11,01 11,04 11,13 11,52 11,83 12,00 12,16 12,44 12,91 12,92 13,01 13,38
14,40 14,88
17,60 18,01 18,56
19,52 21,45
SARDINES
MACKEREL
PANGAS
TROUT
HAKE
COALFISH
KIPPER
PLAICE
LING
SEABREAM
POLLACK
SAUMON…
MORUE
PERCH
SALMON
WHITING
Grand Total
DAB
RAY
OTHER…
HADDOCK
COD
SEA BASS
ANGLER
SOLE
RED…
TUNA
SCORPI…
YtD P05 2012
PRICE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH
FISH IN FRANCE (P01-P05)
Cod
Seabream
Haddock
Kipper
Ling Ling
Pollack
Coalfish
Angler
Mackerel
Whiting Hake
Morue
Pangas Perch
Plaice
Ray
Red Mullet
Sardines
Salmon
Sole
Tuna
-45,0
-35,0
-25,0
-15,0
-5,0
5,0
15,0
25,0
35,0
45,0
55,0
65,0
-25,00 -20,00 -15,00 -10,00 -5,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00
Vo
lum
e
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Price development
Price for fresh fish Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC
LESS IS SOLD UNDER 10 EURO IN Q112 THAN IN .
Q411
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012
Volume sold of fresh salmon in different average price levels.
16+
14-15,99
12-13,99
10-11,99
7-9,99
FRESH SALMON IS BACK ON PROMOTION.
Photo: Carrefour
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
Volume = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)* Average kilo purchased in the period (AWP)
Value (alternative 1) = Volume * Price
Value (alternative 2) = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)*(Average expenditure of the purchase (AWE
(AWP*Price))
SOME DEFINITIONS
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON IN FRANCE
FROM 2011 TO 2012 – ALSO HIGHER THAN 2010
€
Penetration %
AW Price / Kg
AW Purchase
1,13 1,44
AW Expenditure
13,9 11,5
15,7 16,5
22,5 27,2
+20,7%
1,38
11,8
16,3
26,6
-15,3%
2010 2011 2012
Period: P01-P05
+27,4% -18,1%
5,1% -3,6%
-17,2% 17,8%
STRONG POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ALL AREAS
FOR FRESH SALMON IN SPAIN.
€
Penetration %
AW Price / Kg
AW Purchase
2,49 2,96
AW Expenditure
9,5 8,1
23,6 23,9
28,8 31,4
2,66
8,4
22,4
27,2
2010 2011 2012
9,0% 5,9%
+18,9% -6,4%
5,4%
-14,7% 13,1%
1,3%
Period: P01-P05
€ Penetration % AW Price / Kg AW Purchase AW Expenditure
Fresh salmon +21% +5% +28% -17%
Frozen salmon +4% +2% -3% +5%
Smoked salmon 0% +2% -2% +4%
France – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012
Fresh salmon +9% +1% +19% -15%
Frozen salmon -4% +12% +5% +7%
Smoked salmon -5% +5% +5% +0%
Spain – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012
Period: P01-P05
TOTAL SEAFOOD IN SPAIN
€
Penetration %
AW Price / Kg
AW Purchase
26,7 26,1
AW Expenditure
7,04 7,00
187,8 182,5
96,6 96,9
28,0
6,80
188,8
95,8
2010 2011 2012
0,3% 0,8%
-2,8% -0,5%
3,5%
-2,2% -4,6%
-0,6%
Period: P01-P05
FRESH FISH IN FRANCE HAS A POSITVE
DEVELOPMENT BUT LESS THAN FOR SALMON.
€
Penetration %
AW Price / Kg
AW Purchase
3,23 3,33
AW Expenditure
12,4 12,3
40,1 40,9
55,9 56,2
3,47
11,6
40,2
58,0
2010 2011 2012
0,5% -3,6%
+2,0% -0,2%
6,9%
3,1% -6,9%
-0,8%
Period: P01-P05
1. Strong positive development for fresh salmon. Volume is up and prices are
down.
2. Positive tendences for smoked salmon, more variation for frozen salmon.
3. Penetration and expenditure are increasing for fresh salmon in France and
Spain.
SUMMARY