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Climate Change and Energy Policy in HI
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State of Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan Nov ‘98
Act 234 June 2007
HCEI OCT 2008 100% by 2045
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“These results point out the relatively low impact of Hawaii's people on climate change, but also emphasize the difficulty Hawaii faces in making significant reductions in its emissions. Jet fuel is essential to Hawaii's tourism-based economy and the wellbeing of its people.”
“Climate change has the characteristics of a collective action problem at the global scale, because…emissions by any agent (e.g., individual, community, company, country) affect other agents” IPCC Synthesis Report 2014
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“1990 levels by 2020”
Key Climate Policy Questions
1. What do climate scientists tell us about the level of GHG reductions needed, and by when?
2. Do our emissions in Hawaii even matter? Or are we so small that we should just ‘do our own thing’ and focus our efforts on adaptation to climate impacts?
3. Should Climate Change Policy in Hawaii align with US/global Climate Change Policy?
4. If mitigation matters in Hawaii, should we revisit our GHG reduction goals for the State?
What level of GHG reduction is needed?
Figure 2.2 http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_futurechanges.php#figure_2_2
RCP 2.6: Decarbonize adapted from http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_pathways.php#table_3_1
RCP 8.6: BAU
430-480 PPM CO2 Eq concentrations 2100 >1000 PPM
41-72% decrease Change in CO2 Eq vs 2010 in 2050 52-95% increase
78-118% decrease Change in CO2 Eq vs 2010 in 2100 74-178% increase
Do Hawaii emissions even matter? Ch
ina
Euro
pean
Uni
on
Indi
a
Russ
ia
Indo
nesia
Braz
il
Mex
ico
Japa
n
Cana
da
India
Japan
Mexico
Brazil
US 2nd largest per capita 20 TPY Hawaii per capita 16 TPY 1/3 of 1% of US total
Canada
Russia
European Union
Indonesia
China
World Average
US
2nd la
rges
t ove
rall
http://bit.ly/11SMpjA
Should HI Climate Policy align w/ US Policy?
“Substantial global emission reductions are needed to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, and the 2025 target is consistent with a path to deep decarbonization. This target is consistent with a straight line emission reduction pathway from 2020 to deep, economy-wide emission reductions of 80% or more by 2050. The target is part of a longer range, collective effort to transition to a low-carbon global economy as rapidly as possible.”
from the United States INDC submission to the UNFCCC http://tinyurl.com/oop7jpd
Should HI revisit our GHG reduction goals?
SC DE HI GA NC VA ME FL NJ WA OR MD CA RI NH CT MA NY DC 18.0 16.6 15.9 15.7 15.0 14.9 13.8 13.4 13.2 12.6 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.1 5.5
GHG emissions per capita (tons per person, 2012) excluding land use changes and forestry
adapted from
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GHG Goals in other places?
From CNCA’s Framework for Long-Term Deep Carbon Reduction Planning
Implications for energy policy today?
Should we reset our GHG goals for Hawaii? Can we benefit from an aggressive clean energy goal in ground transportation? How can we continue to improve collaboration between State and County government? How do GHG goals and climate change relate to our most important industry?
