CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRITICAL GEO-POLITICS:WHITHER WORLD LEADERSHIP

BY

TANKO AHMED fwc

SENIOR FELLOW (SECURITY & STRATEGY)NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR POLICY AND STRATEGIC STUDIES (NIPSS)

KURU – JOS, NIGERIA

FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING TO MEGA DISASTERS AND THE ARMAGEDDON

WE ARE BEGINING TO FEEL THE HEATOUR PLANET EARTH IS BURNING

WE MUST DO SOMETING

SOME CAPTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE “Last best hope for humanity at the limits of

suicide” – Pope Francis “The future of the Planet is at stake”

– French President Hollande “We must act now; it’s almost too late”

– American President Barrack Obama “The Earth is in Peril”

– British Prime Minister David Cameron(Gosden & Samuel, 2015)

“Global warming is now in overdrive: We just hit a terrible climate milestone”

– Melissa Cronin, 4 March 2016

A PROLOGUE A dysfunctional world leadership seems

caught off-guard and off-balance in escalating manifestation of climate change cataclysm;

This case study deliberates on the need for world governments, corporations and activists to form a united front against impending climate change catastrophes;

It discusses causes, consequences and alleviation of mega disasters; and

It inquires on common and shared responsibilities, predicaments, and smart utilization of global human and material resources.

THEORIES AND LITERATURE SURVEY Theories of human response to

sudden mass disruption and displacement often reckon with principles and practices in aid of managing mega disasters and critical geopolitics.

A literature survey extracts serious concern and trends on traditional fixations of spatial imaginations hindering workable resolutions.

ELICITATION This study therefore elicits

response to the need for global policies and strategies as nations would chaotically flow into one another in tragic mishandling of disasters.

A stakeholders’ triangle of salvation with governments, corporations and activists may confront an impending Climageddon to provide feasible resolution to an end time Toba Event Hypothesis consistent with the climate change debacle.

INTRODUCTION“… whatcha gonna do when they come for you …”

– Bob Marley (1945 – 1981)

BACKGROUND The rising tide of debate on climate change is

leaning towards demand for committed leadership and global policy, requiring leaders to act fast and timely, before it is too late (Aguirre, 2002; Schneider, et al, 2010; Chukwukeme, 2015; Wollersheim, 2016).

Imagine a worst-case-scenario mega catastrophe on the scale of Toba Event Hypotheses, an explosive event striking large populations, like the recent snowstorms in China and the United States trapping millions in wide areas.

SHOUTING OUT LOUD The American President Obama at the

United Nations Sustainable Development Summit voiced out that all countries will be affected by a changing climate and climate change refugees (Lambert, 2015; Hale, 2015).

Also, Pope Francis warned that the Paris Conference, latest in a series on climate change, may be the ‘last best hope’ for a world pushed to the ‘limits of suicide’ (Hale, 2015).

In a deeply divided world facing common threats of annihilation, global leadership seems caught off-guard and off-balance, in escalating climatic change cataclysm.

A LITERATURE REVIEW Literature on climate change

emphasises on human mass migration for safety, comfort or security; and tends to expand at a seemingly exponential rate; with increasing diversification of types of migration and directional flow (King, 2012).

As recent events bring forth literary interests on the subject, there is still no significant attention paid to the likelihood of major climate related mega catastrophe (Abramovitz, et al. 2002; Anderson & Bausch, 2005; Kousky, et al. 2009; Kurekova, 2011; Hyndman, 2014).

LITERATURE FOCUS Earlier works (Enthoven, 2000; Gupta &

Grubb, 2000) outlined climate change as major challenge to human kind with far reaching consequences for a world far away from mature political and practical policy.

The situation has gotten worst, as world leaders are strongly cautioned to listen to the voices of wisdom and practice from concerned experts and practitioners (Sriskandarajah, 2008; Hale, 2015; Wollersheim, 2016)

CURRENT TRENDS The World Bank Development Research

Group on Environment and Energy Team conducted studies on how to respond to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes with a baseline omitting how to face events of mass migration or relocation to safety (Kousky, et al. 2009).

The ‘ecological debts’ and leadership owed weaker countries by stronger nations are often drowned in ‘green rhetoric’ by leaders responsible for its escalation as much as its solution (Hale, 2015).

It is already happening, according to The Washington Post’s Angela Fritz, as catastrophic Cyclone Winston bears down on Fiji’s main island in worst case scenario (Fritz, 2016).

THEORIES IN DEBATES Theories in debates tend to enhance

constructive and objective reasoning, especially in wide complex issues like climate change and geopolitics (Reed, 2011).

Discourse on climate change and geopolitics assumes eclectic and inclusive ecosystem at local, global and cosmic trends.

Theories of climate change and geopolitics therefore encapsulate societal features and processes as universal events and activities set in cosmic ecosystem.

THEORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND GEOPOLITICS

Theories of climate change and geopolitics encapsulate societal features, universal events and activities into a cosmic ecosystem.

They cover global warming, bio-activities, weather, human process, ocean currents, planetary motion and solar effects.

A Unified Theory of human and environment places climate change and geopolitics as interactive.

THE 7 THEORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE Anthropogenic Global Warming; Bio-thermostat; Cloud Formation and Albedo; Human Forcings Besides Greenhouse

Gases; Ocean Currents; Planetary Motion; and Solar Variability.

THEORIES OF MASS DISRUPTION AND DISLOCATION

Theories of mass disruption and dislocation of human activities and population are in aid of the management and administration of events at various scales, from local to global events (Kurekova, 2011; King, 2012; Hyndman, 2012).

Recent mega events, mostly associated with natural disasters, require the upgrading of approaches to global policy and strategy.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK The ‘Seven Theories of Climate Change’ clearly

cover global warming, bio-activities, weather, human process, ocean currents, planetary motion and solar effects (Bast, 2010).

A Unified Theory of human and environment places climate change and geopolitics as an interactive process (Nikolov & Zeller, 2011).

An earlier example of this interactive process involved human mass displacement and migration across national borders with climate change activities as causal factors (Le Treut, et al, 2007).

A HYPOTHESIS

Seen from the perspective of critical geopolitics, global policies and strategies on climate change mitigate against explosive mass disruption and dislocation of human activities and dislocation.

PROBLEM STATEMENT

THE PROBLEM

Seen from the perspective of critical geopolitics, global policies and strategies on climate change should be aimed at effective mitigation against sudden and overwhelming events at short or no notice at all anywhere in the world.

A real world, real time, example of overwhelming mega events that could threaten the world system is seen in the Refugee Surge which threatens the stability of the so called advanced countries of the European Union.

A GENERAL STATEMENT In the event of one or more such

occurrences, the entire world may be caught off-guard and off-balance, unless, if concrete measures are at hand for mitigation.

It is obvious that when these events occur human activities will be seriously disrupted, as well as mass dislocation of population, so much so fast at multiple points across national and regional borders, interests and other divides.

POINTS OF INQUIRY

How is the world and humanity ought to respond to the challenges of managing climate change and critical geo-political trends?

Is the present crop and arrangement of world leadership capable enough to handle the scourge?

Are committed climate change activists and threatened corporate bodies ready to assume shared responsibility in global leadership?

SIGNIFICANCE

These questions and many others are ripe for debates and operational simulations on climate change and critical geopolitics, including risk assessments, policy models and strategic postulations.

It is also interesting to note, at this juncture, that the trio of governments, in pursuit of national interests; corporations going after profits; and activists threading on non-state space may form a triangle of salvation to rescue the world and humanity.

CONCEPTUAL DISCOURSE

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change constitutes alterations in global weather patterns witnessed in temperature fluctuations and tempestuous activities owing to atmospheric effluence partly associated with human ventures or greenhouse effect.

CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS

Critical Geo-Politics sum the complex interrelationship of geography, politics and human population determined by national boundaries, citizenship, sovereignty, values and survival of nations which if disrupted, the world will be in chaos.

CLIMAGEDDON

Climageddon is a combo-word for ‘climate change’ and ‘armageddon’ inferring the potency of climate change related disasters on mega scale (Wollersheim, 2016).

MEGA CATASTROPHES

Mega catastrophes are extreme natural disasters with terrible consequences often beyond the control or mitigation of humankind, like the Toba Event (Gibbons, 1993).

TOBA EVENT HYPOTHESIS

Toba Event Hypothesis holds that a single super volcanic eruption caused a global winter of 6 – 10 years with about 1,000 years of cooling process (Gibbons, 1993 and 2010).

TOBA EVENT HYPOTHESIS

Holds that a single super volcanic eruption caused a global winter of 6 – 10 years with about 1,000 years of cooling process (Gibbons, 1993 and 2010).

MASS MIGRATION

Mass Migration refers to any significant movement of human population from one point to another due to mega catastrophe disrupting geo-political arrangement of nations.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND

CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS

CRITICAL GEOPOLITICS AND NATIONAL SURVIVAL

Critical geo-politics for national survival threatened by climate driven mega disasters may force nations to flow into each other as human population migrate away from certain danger.

In a situation where Governments fail to serve and protect people, things become free-for-all for corporations, and the 'people' will take to activism to save the world.

THE WOLLERSHEIM’S CLIMAGEDDON

Intellectual response to recent events gave birth to impending events termed as ‘Climageddon’ in which climate change events are considered as potential agents of Armageddon.

Lawrence Wollersheim (2016) in the oncoming book ‘Climageddon: The Global Warming and How to Survive It’ relates a universal confusion on issues of possible mega disasters and what to do next.

EARLIER WARNINGS

Aguirre (2002) had earlier reviewed natural and technological hazards and identified unresolved issues on global disaster mitigation requiring critical geopolitical States’ policies and strategies.

It still remains doubtful whether national and international policy makers are yet willing or able to act to prevent or mitigate the displacement impacts of climate change (Sriskandarajah, 2008).

SIGNS OF THE OBVIOUS

THE RUDE AWAKENING AND GREEN RHETORIC

Recent major disasters capable of displacing human habitation and activities at mega scale include avalanche, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, flood, snowstorms, windstorms, ocean surge, heat wave, severe weather and wildfire.

The Norwegian Refugee Council confirmed that mega disasters drove more than 22 million people from home, more than wars and conflicts.

The super Typhoon Haiyan of Philippines demonstrated capacity to destroy homes in seconds and turn entire communities into rubbles in few minutes.

These combine to form a rude awakening for a world long comforted with ‘green rhetoric’ www.foe.co.uk.

REAL WORLD MEGA EVENTS

The State of California in the USA is as dry as bone with effects out of an apocalyptic movie, cities ran out of water, communities fought over water rations, local governments rationing with steep fines, fires ravaging the land, and all creatures threatened (Miles, 2014).

A Category 5 Catastrophic Cyclone Winston had swept Fiji Islands in the Pacific Ocean at the speed of 150mph or 240kph, almost off the chart as the Dvorak placed its escalation at Scale 8, the last mark, with speed of 180mph or 295kph (Fritz, 2016).

A Climageddon situation of Toba Event scale is already here inflicting mass disruption, destruction and migration.

POSSIBLE STATE SPONSORED MASS MIGRATION

Possible State initiated and sponsored mass migration for survival of its citizens should be seen as an impeding natural trend in environmental security (Gaan, 1990; Dijkink, 1996; Abramovitz, et al. 2002; Anderson & Bausch, 2006; Hyndman, 2014; Wollersheim, 2016).

The recent North American snowstorm had threatened not less than 85 million people in 20 states of the United States of America.

This paper presumes that a continued occurrence and increased intensity of mega disasters such as this, particularly in the advanced northern hemisphere countries would eventually necessitate mass migration or exodus of people from one country or region to another.

STAKEHOLDER TRILOGY OF

GOVERNMENT, CORPORATION AND

ACTIVISM

A TRILOGY OF STAKEHOLDERS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Major stakeholders engaged in the climate change saga and its outcome consists of the trilogy of governments, corporations and activism (Anan, 2000; Figueres & Ivanova, 2002; Drexhage, 2008; Ihlen, 2009; Biermann & Boas, 2010; O’Flaherty, 2015).

Governments possess political authority in control of human and material resources on the global platform.

Corporations own and control private business, governance or professional activities cutting across national borders.

Activism mobilizes vigorous and aggressive actions in checking excesses of governments and corporations.

A trilogy of these stakeholders would be capable of forming a formidable front to confront climate change in its causal, consequential and containment outcomes.

TOWARDS A GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE

Figueres & Ivanova (2002) address the challenges of global environmental governance and explore on causal responsibility for climate change; its consequences; responses; and what to do.

Emphasis on building a global climate regime among nations; linkage and consultations; technological competence; and paradigm shift in values all require effective collaboration, cooperation and coordination of major stakeholders.

From Climate Change Conferences’ agreements to the Global Earth Hour series’ observance, the main thrust is to get single individuals and larger formal groupings of stakeholders to be aware, and then do something about it.

WHITHER WORLD LEADERSHIP FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

MITIGATION

GLOBAL EFFORTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Series of global climate conferences at Montreal: 2005, Bali: 2007, Copenhagen: 2009, Cancun: 2010, Durban: 2011, Warsaw: 2013. Lima: 2014, and Paris: 2015 all point to the need for global leadership.

Global public policy, legal framework and political action are hindered by the inability of world leaders to collaborate, cooperate and coordinate a global strategic plan to checkmate climate change mega catastrophe (Chukwukeme, 2015).

This is supported by the World Development Report 2015 that illustrates a more realistic and cooperative decision making and behavior among leadership of the world which will bring more effective policies and strategies in human affairs (World Bank Group, 2015).

The world is therefore faced with acute shortage of a committed political leadership able to harness human and other resources to counter the challenges of climate change effectively at global scale.

INITIAL CONFUSION ON MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE Initial confusion on managing climate

change is perfectly reflected in the politics of naming storms.

Olejarski (2016) explains that hurricanes were originally named after Saints, then phonetic alphabets to politicians and gender controversies.

This trend brought in politicians, corporations and activists into loggerheads, for the sake of increased disaster risk awareness, preparedness, management and reduction.

The world and humanity face acute trial period of no retreat no surrender as there is no option to ending ideological conflicts which drain global resources in wars and dysfunctional behaviors.

A TRIANGLE OF SALVATION

PEOPLES OF THE WORLD

The opening phrase of the United Nations’ Charter ‘we the peoples of the United Nations …’ has taken a generational leap powered by the information and communication technology (ICT) revolution.

A peoples’ global mind is described by Barsh, Brown & Kain (2016) as part of one electronically based, intercommunicating network sharing real time experiences in planetary universal mode.

A new generation of ‘peoples of the world’ is already in place, facing a relentless climate change debacle capable of mass disruption and dislocation of human population.

A TRIANGLE OF SALVATION

The stage is set for getting all stakeholders aboard a resilient planet of smart human creatures able to turn around the negative trend of climate change.

What is needed now is a trilogy of governments with regulatory commitments and enforcement zeal; corporations with pro-earth business models and practices; and sound worldwide activism with local to global inclusiveness.

This ‘triangle of salvation’ formed and controlled by a worldwide universal and inclusive leadership could redirect awareness away from self-destructive conflicts to the common good of countering the scourge of climate change.

THANK YOU

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