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Climate Change Adaptation
Soudachan Chanthalavanh,
United Nation Capital Development Fund
Julia Eiferman,
Urban Climate Change Research Network
Agenda
10:30 am - 10:15 am : Ourselves, Session Introduction, and Climate Adaptation
• Introductions
• Climate Change Basics
10:15 am - 10:45 am : Case Studies from affected areas
• Mekong river -- downstream people who are affected
• Coastal Zones (NYC and Philippines)
10:45 am - 11:45 pm: Workshop on sectorial responses to climate change
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An important distinction
“Weather is what you get; climate is what you expect.”
Climate describes weather patterns over a longer term
Weather describes current and near-term conditions
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Climate Change Basics
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Responding to Climate RisksMitigate to reduce our impact on natural systems……and adapt where we nevertheless expect impacts.
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• Resilience is the capacity to withstand stress and catastrophe. Psychologists have long recognized the capabilities of humans to adapt and overcome risk and adversity. An individual's ability to properly adapt to stress and adversity
• The underlying capacity of an ecosystem to maintain desired ecosystem services in the face of a fluctuating environment and human use (Folke et al. 2002)
• Measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables (Holling 1973)
• the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity of self-organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change (IPCC).
• Adaptation is not the same as Resilience. Resilience is about the ability to self-organize. You could do something to adapt to a new circumstance once, but not be prepared to minimize future risk. Adaptive Capacity is key for resilience.
Definitions of Resilience
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What does climate change resilience look
like?
• Applying up-to-date science to urban policy
• Generating local knowledge about climate
• Developing innovative technology for
agriculture, transportation, architecture,
communications, water systems, etc.
• Sharing experiences to build capacity and
knowledge (like we are doing here!)
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Why are Coastal Cities Unique?
• Many population centers grew up low-lying coastal
or river areas, for access to trade.
• More than half of the world’s population lives in
cities and that percentage is growing.
• Land Use and Settlement Patterns
• Innovation, Social Change, and Implementation
• Sea Level Rise
• Urban Heat Island
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• Different environmental problems occurred across the region
• No regional policy framework for collaborative action to combat or adapt to climate change.
• Numerous INGOs play significant role in regional initiatives on adaptation activities
Case Studies 1: Lower Mekong Basin
MRC, 2012 11
Lower Mekong Basin : Adaptation in Laos
Drought and flooding are the only affects from Climate Change
Up to 70% of population rely on agricultural sector as farmers (affected group) who finally shift their living into small entrepreneurs or urban lifestyle due to crop yield declines
Women are the most vulnerable group with no decision making on finance and households
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Lower Mekong Basin : Financial Inclusion Financial Inclusion was introduced by UNCDF in
cooperation with bank of Laos as MAFIPP (Making Access to Finance more Inclusive for Poor People)
It aims at supporting 407,000 additional poor people (10% of total population) to access to formal financing (loan) for business start-up and expansion through micro finance institutions as intermediate channel.
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MAFIPP Micro-Finance Institutions Poor people
It provides financial support and technical assistance to micro finance institutions to strengthen its operation and sustainability
It targets to support women at least 60% of the whole supported group
Case Studies 2: Typhoon Haiyan
• Also known as Yolanda in the Philippines.
• Early November, 2013
• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed the system as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon – 195 mph or 315 km/h.
• Storm waves of 16 feet (5 meters) smashed the coastline
• Boulders, weighted up to 198 tons, was rolled 150 feet up a beach
Haiyan Typhoon, the Philippines 14
Typhoon Haiyan: preparation
Micronesia issued tropical storm warning and mandatory evacuation - Most residents ignored the warning and some rode
the typhoon
The Philippines raised Public Storm Warning Signal from level 1 to 4 within 2 days as the intensify increased. PAGASA issued warning at different levels to 60 out of 80 provinces.
Vietnam activated highest preparedness: 800,000 residents across country were evacuated. Alerts were sent to 85,328 seagoing vessels, with 385,372 crews.- Warning came too late for preparation
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Typhoon Haiyan: Impacts Micronesia: No fatalities and major injuries despites residents’ refusal to evacuate
Vietnam: 10 people were killed in Vietnam
China and Taiwan: 3,500 people were isolated due to intensive flooding. 8,500 houses were damaged.
The Philippines: 6,300 fatalities and 1,061 missing
Overall, 16 million people were affected and $2.86 billions of economic loss
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Typhoon Haiyan: Lesson Learned
1. People’s ignorance to warning systems and unawareness of storm destruction
2. Construction of storm surge breaker/barrierse.g planting of mangrove trees
3. No proper implementation of contingency plan for every hazard: No review building code and zoning (safe zone) No regular disaster drill No available of any communication sort after landfall
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Typhoon Haiyan: Ongoing Implementation
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Case Studies 3: Hurricane Sandy
• October, 2012
• Storm was forecast well in advance
• Storm timing coincided almost exactly with astronomically high, high tide
• Tropical-storm-force winds extended 1,000 miles from end to end.
• Storm surge combined with high tide created a“storm tide” of over 14 feet
• Unusual storm track, Sandy turned sharply west just as it was reaching another peak of intensity
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Hurricane Sandy NYC Impacts
Flooded Subway System
Extensive power outages
Spencer Platt Getty Images
350,000 Housing units damaged or destroyed
Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images.
Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images.
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Spencer Platt Getty Images
• Hospital Evacuations– Flooding and power outages forced the
evacuation of 6,500 people from nursing homes and hospitals
• Gas Shortages– Severe breakdowns in the supply chain
serving New York caused by storm damage to coastal infrastructure led to fuel shortages that lasted weeks
• Fires– Over 100 homes and businesses were
destroyed by fire, often electrical in nature, sparked by the interaction of electricity and seawater. Narrowly flooded streets pampered emergency response.
Hurricane Sandy
Unforeseen Impacts
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New York City Pre-Sandy Adaptation Examples
• Actions already underway in New York City to mitigate the impacts of climate risks– Planting over 300 Greenstreets,
vegetation that absorbs stormwater
– Securing citywide high-resolution LiDAR elevation data
– NYC Office of Emergency Management launched enhanced emergency response and preparedness programs
• Post Sandy intensifying efforts
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New York City Adaptation Process
Source: NPCC, 2010
Stakeholder Task Force
CCATF
City-wide Sustainability Office OLTPS
Expert PanelNPCC
CWW
P
T
E
Mayor
City Agencies
- Regional Authorities
- Private Stakeholders
Integration across
Sector-specific Working Groups
- Energy (E) - Transportation (T)
- Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW)
- Communications (C)
University scholars and private sector experts
- Social, biological, and physical scientists
- Legal and insurance experts
- Risk management professionals
Leadership
Coordination
Implementation
Climate Science
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New York City issued mandatory evacuation of Zone A on October 28, 2012
Out-of-state utility crews brought in before the storm
MTA closed down operations, moved rolling
stock, and boarded and placed sandbags at
subway entrances to protect against flooding
Still…• Evacuation – Not complete
43 people died in NYC 80%from drowning
• Utilities – Not prepared4 million without power in the tri-state region
• MTA/DOT – Major flooding7 subway lines under East River, 3 tunnels closed
MTA
LIPA
Hurricane Sandy Immediate Preparations
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• SIRR was established with the tasks of:– Analyzing the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on buildings,
infrastructure, and the public.
– Assessing the risks that climate change presents to the New York City in the medium-term and long-term range.
– Creating strategies to increase climate resilience throughout the city.
– Developing proposals for rebuilding the areas of the city most damaged by Hurricane Sandy.
• These tasks are accomplished by engaging with the public, including over 35 government agencies, 65 public officials, 320 community organizations, and thousands of individuals.
Post Sandy
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Physical and Policy Measures: Building Codes
Local Law 100 of 2013The first and lower floors of many existing buildings are at risk from flooding because they are below flood level, and essential building equipment is often located on these lower floors. This law requires that vulnerable building elements – such as electrical services, fire protection systems, compressed gas or hazardous material tanks, and vent piping – must be located above the design flood elevation in new and renovated buildings in flood zones. It also requires hospitals to build to the 500-year flood elevation, rather than the 100-year flood elevation
Local Law 101 of 2013High winds can cause flying debris to break windows and louvers, and force rainwater into building systems. This law improves the wind resistance of new or renovated buildings by requiring impact-resistant windows in certain particularly sensitive buildings in wind-prone areas. In addition, all buildings must have rain- and impact-resistant louvers.
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Social Resilience
• We know that communities with stronger social ties tend to do better during disasters, weather-related or otherwise.
• Because climate resilience is about the ability to learn and adapt to new stressors, community responses to climate change are key.
• Formal systems were insufficient to address people’s needs but many informal groups sprung up. For example “Occupy Sandy” was a community relief effort.
• Economists and Sociologists are studying the effects of the storm on neighborhoods to identify ways to improve resilience.
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Ongoing Costal Resilience Research ResultsEconomists and Sociologists are studying the effects of the storm on neighborhoods to identify ways to improve resilience.
Surveys of a random sample of 250 residents in two Sandy-affected neighborhoods in NYC found:
• Interview respondents overwhelmingly report that most of the help that they received came from community, volunteer, and non-profit groups.
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Information
• Interview respondents report that access to information after the storm was difficult.– How and when to clean out the home.– What to do about mold.– Where to find needed assistance.– Eligibility criteria and application procedures.
• Information was often misleading.– Insurance agencies telling people to wait for an assessor before
mucking out.– Wrong masks and instructions for dealing with mold.
• Evacuation order was well communicated to residents.
• People are not well prepared to make the decision about evacuation.
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Gaps in building resilience
• Availability of information.
• Repairing and rebuilding “as was” rather than making homes more resilient.
• People, especially middle-income households, have depleted their resources.
• Community, volunteer, non profit groups have human resources, outreach, and agility but lack funding, technical expertise, and official sanction.
• Government agencies have funding and authority but people find eligibility and application procedures difficult to navigate.
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Key Takeaways
• In NYC we had a solid history of using climate science to inform city policy. Still, Sandy was a wake-up call and a learning opportunity.
• Climate Change is increasingly at the forefront of people’s minds but it is still an abstract problem with a complex set of causes.
• Both Mitigation and Adaptation are necessary. The best solutions will incorporate both.
• Resilience is a useful framework, borrowed from Ecology and Psycology, for thinking about adaptation especially in Coastal Areas.
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Workshop
- Break into three groups (apx 12) - Within groups of 12, break into 3 groups of 4 and assign
participants to play role of either: NGO, Gov and Youth Advocacy
1. NGO as key partnership in climate change resilience 2. Government sector for policy recommendations3. Youth advocacy for youth-led resilience projects
- Share ideas- Discuss opportunities for collaboration
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Additional Resources
MIT Climate CoLab (more on the mitigation side but an interesting global competition): www.climatecolab.com
Asian Cities Climate Change Resiliency Network (ACCRN) Case Studies and Jobs board: http://acccrn.net/
Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) report: http://www.mrcmekong.org/
Financial inclusion (microfinance) programme by UNCDF in cooperation with Bank of Laos: http://mafipp.org/
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