Community Perspectives on Sustainability and Resilience within a Social-Ecological Paradigm

A Master’s Thesis Defense Presentation

ByWm. Alex Webb

Advisor: Dr. Kostas AlexandridisCommittee Members: Prof. Tetsu Sato

and Dr. Tyler Smith

Presentation Overview

• Rationale & Key Theoretical Concepts• Objectives and Questions• Field Methodologies• Methods of Analysis• Results• Discussion and Management Implications

Rationale

• Equilibrium based ‘Command and Control’ approach (Holling and Meefe, 1996)

• Failure of single academic discipline solutions (MSY, Market Regulation, etc.)

• The social processes that impact sustainability and resilience are not well understood (Olsson, 2003)

Key Theoretical Concepts

Social –Ecological Systems TheorySustainability and Resilience

The Role of Legacies, Path Dependence Culture and Polycentrism

The Bottom-Up Approach to NRM

© Angel Randall

Social-Ecological Systems (SES)

• SES theory stresses that “the delineation between social and natural systems is artificial and arbitrary.” (Folke, 2005)

• Act as complex adaptive systems (Sawyer, 2005) with complex feedbacks between social, economic, cultural and environmental systems (Hammer, 2003; Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2010)

NSF, 2013

What is Sustainability Then?

• Scientific definition: “...meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.” (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987)

• Sustainability is a latent variable and is value laden, complex, dynamic and contains a certain degree of ambiguity (Loorbach, Frantzeskaki et al, 2011; Becker and Research, 1997)

Resilience

• Within Social-ecological paradigm, resilience refers to systems ability to adapt, absorb, mitigate or defend against change or surprise (Berkes, 2003)

• Resilience is promoted by nurturing diversity, variability, and functional redundancy (Walker, Anderies et al, 2006)

Additional Key Concepts

• Legacies and Path Dependence in Complex Adaptive Systems (Chapin et al, 2009)

• The Role of Culture (Harrison and Huntington, 2001)

• Polycentrism (Ostrom, 2003)

• Bottom-Up Approach to NRM (Ostrom, 2007)

Project Objectives and Broad Research Questions

© Angel Randall

Broad Research Questions

• What are the perspectives of community groups regarding social-ecological dynamics as they relate to sustainability and resilience in St. Thomas?

• Do separate groups exhibit distinct/or opposing perspectives?

• What is the role of the natural environment and conservation embedded within their knowledge representations?

Project Objectives

• To test the efficacy of Participatory Scenario Planning as a method for capturing social knowledge representations related to social-ecological system dynamics

• To explore the effectiveness and accuracy of using Semantic Network Analysis as a means of quantifying large bodies of qualitative text

• To examine similarities and differences in distinct community groups knowledge representations of the processes that facilitate conditions positively or negatively related to sustainability and resilience

Field Methods

Social-Ecological Systems FrameworkScenario Planning Focus Groups

Adapted Q-MethodPurposive and

Snowball Sampling Processes

© Angel Randall

Social-Ecological Framework

• Synthesis of likely Economic, Cultural, Social and Environmental Drivers within a Social-Ecological System of Interactions (Adapted from Larson and Alexandridis,2009)

1. Demographics2. Institutional Arrangements3. Economics4. Environment and Resources5. Infrastructure and Services6. Well-Being7. Cultural Properties8. Perceptions of the Environment & Conservation

• 8 Broad Categories• Operationalize Social-

Ecological Systems Concept across Groups

Why Focus Groups?

• Knowledge is a Social Construct

© Kostas Alexandridis

Capture Social Knowledge

Collective Intelligence (Woolley et al, 2010)

‘Crowd Wisdom’ (Surowiecki, 2005)

LEK, ILK, etc.

What is Scenario Planning?

• “Contemplating Your Future to Better Understand Your Present” (Hammond, 1998)

• Specifically designed to assess uncertainty (Chermack, 2004) a major component in SES dynamics (Newman, 2005)

• Scenario Thinking vs. Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning Exercises

Discuss shared and personal preparedness for the future scenario

Exercise #4

Describe Sustainability in St. Thomas and Choose tangible indicator

Exercise #3

Assess and rank Drivers of that Future (Adapted Q-Method)

Exercise #2

Choose a future Scenario and Time Frame (5, 10 or 15 years)

Exercise #1

Sampling

• Purposive (wilmot, 2005) and Snowball (Atkinson and Flint, 2001) Sampling Methodologies

• 5 distinct community groups (4-9 members per group; N=32)

• Evenly divided between genders (15 male; 17 female) Hospitality Social Group

MPA Team

Eco-outreach Group

DPnR

Farming Co-op Group

Methods of Analysis

Semantic Network AnalysisSmall World Patterns of

ConnectivityScale-Free Distributions

Analysis Workflow

© Liz Clemens

What are Semantic Networks?

• Complex network structures related to semantically distinct language

• Graph theory characterized by Nodes and Vertices (in this case, semantic concepts and the Links Between Them)

• Nodes have a centrality coefficient

Semantic Network Analysis

• Related to the Spreading Activation Theory of long term memory and language(Collins and Loftus, 1975)

• Semantic Equivalence

Common Properties of Semantic Networks

• Small World Patterns of ConnectivityStanley Milgram, 1960

• Scale-Free Distribution

Follows the Pareto 80/20 Rule Tested by a power-law

goodness of fit

‘Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon’Tested through a statistically

significant clustering coefficient

Scale-Free Distributions

2 82 162 242 322 402 482 562 642 722 802 882 962 1042112212021282136214421522160216821762184219222002208221622242232224020

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Semantic Concept Frequency Distribution

Term Frequency

Term

Fre

quen

cies

Power Law G.O.F. (p=0.0)

Semantic Concepts

Scale-Free Distributions

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 790

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Centrality Distribution of Top 80 Concepts from Overall Network

In-Degree

Out-Degree

Semantic Concepts

Cent

ralit

y Sc

ore

(bas

ed o

n Ja

ccar

d In

dex)

Power Law G.O.F. (p=0.0)

Analysis Workflow

Audio Transcribed

Verbatim into Natural

Language Text

Text Mined for semantically

relevant words using Wordnet + TF*IDF function (Ramos,

2003)

Latent Semantic Indexing using singular value decomposition (Deerwester, 1989)

Graph Theory/Social

Network Analysis

Complex Network Structure

Analysis Workflow

• WordNet semantic extraction in QDA Miner

Analysis Workflow

• Jaccard Similarity Matrix

Analysis Workflow

• Weighted Network List

Analysis Workflow

• 30 total networks

Exercise #1 Exercise #2 Exercise #3 Exercise

#4

All Exercises Combined

Analysis Workflow

• Examine frequency by group

Analysis Workflow

• Common phrase extraction

Results

Results of Individual ExercisesUniversal Themes from Discourse Analysis

© Angel Randall

Exercise #1: Choosing a Scenario and Time Frame

• Pushed to the Limit within 5-10 year time frame

• Chose most likely future

• Due in part to a legacy of ‘Money Matters’ development and the impacts of globalization

Exercise #1: Choosing a Scenario and Time Frame

• “…It seems like there is this struggle between money matters. Maybe in the past…what has driven things is this money matters and that is what sort of got us pushed to the limit.” – MPA Team Participant

• “…It comes back to money matters in the sense that that investment, that initial investment from this construction company when they were coming in and building a new development weighs a lot on people who are in power right now. They want that development to happen. They do not care about moving to long term goals” – DPnR Participant

Exercise #2: Critical Drivers

Adapted Q-Method (N=176)

Statement Categorical Driver“Government more involved in community action groups” Institutional Arrangements

(58)“When big money rules (i.e. tourism), usually community needs are cast aside, and only a few benefit”

Economics (24)

“Strong monopoly of economic resources in the hands of a selected few”

Economics (24)

“Attitudes need to change” Perceptions of the Environment and Conservation (23)

“Education system improves giving children positive choices”

Well-Being (29)

Exercise #2: Critical Drivers

N= 176 (Runs: p=0.0; Chi2: p=0.0)

Exercise #2: Critical Drivers

Exercise #2: Critical Drivers

Critical Positive DriversCommunity Decision MakingMore and Better Education (community, individual, business)Local Economy that Supports the CommunityImproved InfrastructureEconomic Development Around Cultural History and Heritage SitesCommunity Ownership (Increased Social Values)Environmental AwarenessEnvironmentally Friendly Business Practices

Exercise #2: Critical Drivers

Critical Negative Drivers

Insufficient Government LeadershipLack of comprehensive planning and vision for Island DevelopmentLack of enforcement/accountability at Institutional and Social levelsEconomic DisparityPoverty DynamicsPoor Attitudes

Exercise #2: Critical Drivers

R2: 0.62

Exercise #3: Defining Sustainability

• Shortest conversation on average (approx. 15-20 minutes)

• Numerous statements but few distinct concepts generated (N=13)

Exercise #3: Defining Sustainability

• Farming Co-op was the only group with cohesive definition of sustainability

• However; easy for groups to choose specific sustainability indicator

Exercise #3: Sustainability

Tangible Indicators of Sustainability

MPA Team

Hospitality Group

Social: less government corruption;

DPnR

Farming Co-op

n/a

Eco-Outreach

Reduced Sedimentation; “See the Bottom of Benner Bay”

Reduced Sedimentation; Less Severe Plumes, etc.

Environmental: Energy Alternatives

Reduced energy cost and energy alternatives

Exercise #4: Preparedness for Future Scenario

• Groups generally did not feel very prepared for the future

• Major factors: • Cost of living• Salary/job opportunities• Graying culture• Personal Vision

Exercise #4: Preparedness for Future Scenario

• “… It is like nobody cares, everyone feels they know, from young, you go to high school, you never had good counselors, and you never had good direction, nobody like gives a shit when you go to the public high schools down there. A lot of kids leave the high school, not really knowing what they want to do. Even if they know what they want to do, they do not have a direction to go there.” – Hospitality Social Group Participant

Universal Themes from Network

Universal Themes from Network

Clustering Coefficient p=0.0

• Sense of Place Identity Purpose Planning

• Impacts of Globalization: Demographics Economic

Disparity

Sense of Identity

• “…when it comes to the people of the community, the local community, to say …what makes you a Virgin Islander, even that… question is a problem because [diverse, outside] society’s want to determine what should be when it should be about the people within this community. If you are born here…that is it you know… that is it. Plain and simple.” – Eco-Outreach Participant

• Not only we will see the dilution of the available farm land, but the same thing is happening to the local culture, the identity of the Virgin Islander. With the influx of it being a melting pot, eventually we going to be talking to one or two of the last few Virgin Islanders still speak the local twang and know the folklore of the island because the influx of all these new technology, information, peoples is like a diluting of our culture or way of life. – Rastafarian Farming Co-op Participant

Changing Demographics

Sources:Worldbank, 2013VI Bureau of Economic ResearchOneCarib Tourism Assoc.

Economic Disparity

• 20% of Residents Live under the Poverty Line

• Adjusted for Race: Approx. 30% of Afro-Caribbean Residents live under the poverty line

Source: U.S. Census, 2010

Economic Disparity

• “They [investors] want St. Thomas to hit rock bottom so they can monopolize, drive up land costs, they want all the locals to sell and then this will be their profit paradise with no locals. It reminds me of all those rent to own nice apartments, AKA ‘future projects’ at the other end of the island that is taking away the locals from town and from the main districts. To take them away from tourist places. I think they want to filter out the tourists areas from as many locals as possible so they can control the land” - Hospitality Social Group Participant

• “We need to stop the hotels from destroying and pumping all kind of things into the sea. We just let them take back Botany Bay and lock it out to people of the Virgin Islands. One of the most beautiful places you can go on this island.” – Rastafarian Faming Co-op Participant

Overall Themes from Network

Clustering Coefficient p=0.0

• Natural Environment linked to Economics

• Local Business

Local Business

• “You could talk about businesses but if you get outside investors and one thing about outside investors I have noticed from my experience living on St. Thomas, people that are not from here do not stay here. They stay here for five years the most and they end up leaving. So unless you put the businesses in the hands of the people that from here it is going to be the same thing happening…” – Hospitality Social Group Participant

• “Local small businesses. Do I think more is going to close? Yes, if we do not find a proactive way of finding more energy efficient ways or leaders do not become better leaders to find sufficient ways for costs to drop ...small businesses are going to go out of business.” – Eco-Outreach Participant

Discussion and Management Implications

‘Top 5’ Takeaways from ResultsImplications of GlobalizationReview of Methods Used

© Angel Randall

‘Top 5’ Takeaways

• Despite the differences in livelihood and cultural backgrounds all the groups shared the same perspective regarding the future of the island.

• People may need to feel hopeful about the future in order to plan for it.

• When discussing the future in more detail, the most dominant social-ecological drivers included:– Sense of place – The incorporation of community values and culture into the decision

making process – Increased accountability at both the social and institutional level

‘Top 5’ Takeaways

• Management strategies should include specific place-based items when engaging communities and solutions might be more effective if they are customized to the community that is being addressed.

• In addition, conservation might be more effective if expressed using cultural and place-based ideals as opposed to theoretical or academic ones.

Implications of Globalization

• Co-occurrence of high diversity and poverty may contribute to diminished sense of civic identity (Collier, 2009)

• Residency time has been linked to place attachment and positively correlated with community revitalization and organization efforts (Manzo and Perkins, 2006)

• There is evidence that proximity to country of origin can encourage immigrants to maintain their traditional cultural values and norms as opposed to adopting those of the country immigrated to (Schwartz et al, 2011)

Review of Methods Used

• This thesis provides evidence that the use of scenario planning fits comfortably within the theoretical parameters created by social-ecological systems, sustainability and resilience theory

• While still a nascent method, this research illustrates great promise in Semantic Network Analysis as a method of quantifying and reducing large datasets of qualitative data.

Acknowledgments

• Guinean Pig Classmates (Tyler, Liz, Zach and Angel)• Chris Settar and Anne Marie Hoffman• Participants • Tyler Smith• Tetsu Sato and RIHN• Kostas ‘Papa Bear Big Dog’ Alexandridis• My very, very patient Fiancé and financier

• Funding provided by:• NSF VI-EPSCoR award no. 0814417• Research Institute for Humanities and Nature (RIHN) International Research Project.

Questions?

© Angel Randall