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Global WarmingScience New & Views, OLLI Sedona
Bob Haizmann
10/26/16
Global Warming
Effects• Atmospheric warming
• Ocean warming
• Ocean acidification
• Sea-ice decline
• Sea level increase
• Extreme weather
• Food security
Mitigation• Efficiency improvements
• Switch to non-fossil fuels
• Carbon pricing
• Political will
Causes• CO2 emissions from
burning coal, oil, gas, cement production
• CH4 from gas leaks & livestock farming
• N2O from fertilizers
• Fluorinated gases
• Reduced albedo from sea-ice decline
• Deforestation
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Evidence
• Ice core samples 800,000 years old show CO2 levels over time
• Earth's surface temperature has increased by 1.4℉ in the last 100 years, 1.0 ℉ in the last 30 years
• Satellite data • increase in global sea levels of 3 mm per year in recent decades
• decline in Arctic sea-ice extent 4% per decade; 50% lower in 2012 compared to 1979-200.
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
• Precession of Earth’s tilt - 26,000 years
• Obliquity - change in Earth’s axial tilt angle - 41,000 years
• Precession of Earth’s orbit around the Sun - 112,000 years
• Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun– 100,000 years
• Tilt of Earth's orbital plane around the Sun - 100,000 years
Natural cycles change the climateMilankovitch Cycles
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Tilt of Earth’s plane
Precession of orbit
Precession of tilt
Natural cycles change the climateMilankovitch Cycles
• When these cycles are in phase
they reinforce each other
• Hot and cold phases go through
100,000 yr cycles
• We should be entering a cooler
phase but this isn’t happening
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
CO2 and Global Temperatures –not dropping as in the past cycles
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Last 400,000 years Last 1,000 years
CO2 range from ~190 - 280 ppm,
400,000 year average ~240 ppm
CO2 now 150 ppm above
400,000 year average
Energy consumption
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Energy consumptionEnergy use per capita
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Energy consumptionEnergy intensity – energy use per $ Gross Domestic Product
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Energy consumptionUSA - change of energy consumption per GDP over time
• USA is getting more efficient, but not fast enough
• Tremendous economic growth has occurred while
getting more efficient
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
Paris agreement on climate change
• Sept 23, 2016 • USA with China announce they will formally
ratify the Paris Climate Agreement
• Together, they create 38 % world’s emissions
• USA pledged to cut emissions between 26 and 28 % vs 2005 levels by 2025
• Oct 4, 2106
• Ratification by the EU this month pushed it over a crucial threshold —approval of nations accounting for 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions
• Nov 4, 2016
• The Paris Agreement will enter into force
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
CO2 Emissions and Global Temperature Rise Constrained by Paris Agreement
Goal of Paris agreementGoal of Paris agreement
Current
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
USA Corporate Average Fuel Economy Plans CAFE standards
• 1978• Workarounds caused 20 years of
stagnation
• Example - light trucks had lower standards….birth of the SUV
• 2009• By 2017 - 35.5 mpg
• 2012• By 2025 – 54.5 mpg
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
USA Clean Power Plan
• August 3, 2015• President Obama and EPA announced the Clean
Power Plan
• Reduce CO2 by 30% by 2030 by shifting power generation to natural gas or renewables
• February 9, 2016• The Supreme Court stayed implementation of the
Clean Power Plan pending judicial review
• September 27, 2016• Lawyers for states & businesses reliant on coal
testified to a federal appeals court
Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
The spiral of silence
• Few Americans, even those who care about the carbon crisis, chat about climate change with friends or family
• No one talks, so no one feels comfortable talking
• Silence begets silence widening the gap between popular discourse and public opinion, in an ever-descending spiral
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Climate-Spiral-Silence-March-2016.pdf
Science News & Views, presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016