Green to Scale at World Bank on 19th Nov 2015

Green to Scale –Low-Carbon Success Stories to Inspire the World

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#GreenToScale

Why Green to Scale?

2Sitra • Mari Pantsar

3Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen

The big picture

Do we have technology to rapidly reduce emissions? How much will it cost? Are suggested solutions feasible in my country? Can it be done?


Understandable concerns slow down climate action

How far can we go if proven low-carbon solutions already applied somewhere are adopted by comparable countries?


Green to Scale answers a simple question

• Many studies before have looked at the potential of existing solutions

• No studies have focused exclusively on scaling up concrete cases to the level achieved already in some countries


Have I heard this before?


Distinguished partners from 10 countries

COPPE

CEMDA

WRI

ECF

UNEP DTU Sitra

SEI

Renmin

Masdar

EDRI

IGES

IFC


1. A gift from the Parliament to 50-year-old Finland

2. An independent foresight agency and systemic change agent

3. Funded by returns on endowment capital and capital investments

4. Vision of Finland as a successful pioneer in sustainable well-being

5. Three themes, six focus areas and dozens

of projects

+ 1 Building our future together

5 + 1 key Sitra facts

Photograph: Erkki Laitila, HS/Lehtikuva 1967

Global headline results



Massive impact by just scaling up existing solutions


How much exactly is 12 Gt?

12 Gt

12 Gt is equal to a quarter of current global emissions or the emissions of China and Japan combined


Five solutions reach the gigatonne range


Cost savings possible, range in estimates wide


Proven solutions are affordable

• Cost estimates do not include two important groups of benefits

1. Avoided climate impacts: cutting emissions slows down warming and reduces damages from climate impacts

2. Co-benefits: many low-carbon solutions have significant co-benefits, such as improved health, more jobs and better energy security

• Factoring in full benefits would make the solutions even more attractive


Including all benefits makes action more attractive

17 proven low-carbon solutions


17

Solar water heating

Sitra • Oras Tynkkynen

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• The US is a world leader in some areas of climate action

• Other countries could learn from the US in e.g.

• improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors

• reducing methane from oil and gas production

• The US in turn could benefit from the successes of other countries, such as

• solar power in Germany

• cutting food waste in Denmark

• improving appliance efficiency in Japan


What others can learn from the US – and vice versa

What do the results mean?


How far can we get with proven solutions?

• On balance, the results are likely to be conservative for several reasons:

1. only 17 solutions are analysed out of a universe of many more

2. solutions are applied only to the extent that some countries have already implemented them to date

3. no new technologies or policy innovations are assumed

4. some solutions could have a larger scope or scalability than studied


And even more can be done

1. Many solutions require large upfront investments, but save money over time – such as improving energy efficiency

2. The costs of many solutions have dropped dramatically over the past years, most notably solar power

3. Affordability was one criterion in selecting the solutions – including other solutions could raise the total costs

4. While global average costs tend to be affordable, there is large variety –some solutions are more expensive in some countries


What makes climate action so affordable

• Proven, attractive and affordable low-carbon solutions exist are not implemented at scale because of various barriers

• There is a lack of e.g.

1. information and awareness

2. level playing field between low- and high-carbon solutions

3. institutional capacity and good governance

4. financing

• Challenges tend to be larger in poorer countries


Why are we not doing it already?

• Barriers can be removed, as shown by countries in both the North and the South

• Success factors include e.g.

1. leadership and commitment at the highest possible level

2. introducing incentives for action and removing disincentives

3. public money to leverage private investment

4. informing and engaging stakeholders and citizens

5. good governance and building capacity

• Poor countries would benefit from international support


We can learn from successes in removing barriers

1. Scaling up just 17 proven low-carbon solutions can cut global emissions significantly

2. Simply doing what some countries have already done would take us a long way towards closing the emissions gap

3. Significant opportunities exist to cut emissions while actually saving money

4. Climate action can provide substantial social and ecological co-benefits

5. Attractive solutions are held back by various barriers

6. Barriers can be removed – as shown by leading countries


Summary

Thank you

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Environment

Green to Scale at World Bank on 19th Nov 2015