Lini Wollenberg, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

How can agriculture help achieve the 2°C target?

16 November 2016 Global Landscape Forum

Session on Unexplained Big Wins for Climate Change through Landscape Restoration

119 countries included mitigation in agriculture or economy-wide goals in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

73% are developing countries

How much

mitigation is

needed in

agriculture to

stay below 2°C

in 2100?

Calculating emissions for a 2°C world

2030 emissions reflect assumptions of each pathway

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6

• RCP2.6 represents 2.6 watts/m2 radiative forcing in 2100, ~450 ppm CO2e• Limits warming to 0.3 to 1.7 °C during 2081 - 2100• Represents non CO2 gases

only• Agriculture will need to limit

GHG emissions to 6-8 GtCO2e (out of all-sector total of 26 GtCO2e) by 2030

Series1

0 0.5 1 1.5

0.92

1.19

1.23

Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)

RCP2.6 (IMAGE) (2)

GCAM2.6 (3)

MESSAGE2.5 (4)

1 GtCO2e/yr mitigation to

stay within 2° CBy 2030

(11-18% reduction)

T

Livestock productivity, feed

Efficient N fertilizer

use

How much can known mitigation practices contribute to the 2 °C goal?

Water saving in

paddy rice

Used mitigation practices compatible with food production:

• Cropland and paddy rice management

• Grazing lands• Livestock • Agroforestry soils

Not• Rewetting peatlands• Cropland set aside

Soil carbon and agroforestry – not included as not compatible with RCPs

IPCC AR5 Table 11.2

Calculated mitigation with global data sets

1. Bottom-up technology-by-technology estimates • Smith 2007, 2008, University of Aberdeen,

IPCC • US $20 tons of CO2

1. Production efficiency gains using integrated assessment modeling (trade and location, production system) • Havlík 2014, IIASA • US $20 tons of CO2

Contributions of mitigation scenarios compared to the 2°C mitigation goal for agriculture

Series1

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

0.21

0.40

0.92

1.19

1.23

Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)

RCP2.6 (IMAGE) (2)

GCAM2.6 (3)

MESSAGE2.5 (4)

Technical practices USD20/t (8)

Efficiency practices USD20/t (9)

1 GtCO2e/yr mitigation to stay within

2° C

Plausible interventions will achieve only 21-40% of mitigation needed in agriculture by 2030

10SAI - GRA

Livestock supply chains

Decrease food waste

Shift dietary patterns

Avoided deforestation by agriculture

Soil carbon

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

1.77

2.00

1.37

4.31

1.20

0.76

0.31

1.71

Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)

Achieving the 2 °C target

1. Aspirational goal of 1 Gt by 2030 is a policy driven and science-based target.

2. Not mitigating in agriculture will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2°C goal.

3. We need to radically expand technical and policy options for bigger impacts, e.g. reduced methane cows or rice, increasing and stabilizing carbon sequestration in soil and biomass, value chains.

• M. Richards• P. Smith• P. Havlík• M. Obersteiner• F.N. Tubiello• M. Herold• P. Gerber • S. Carter • A. Reisinger• D. van Vuuren• A. Dickie• H. Neufeldt

• B.O. Sander• R. Wassmann• R. Sommer• J.E. Amonette• A. Falcucci• M. Herrero • C. Opio • R. Roman-Cuesta • E. Stehfest • H. Westhoek • I. Ortiz-Monasterio• T. Sapkota

• M.C. Rufino • P.K. Thornton • L. Verchot • P.C. West • J.-F. Soussana • T. Baedeker • M. Sadler• S.Vermeulen• B.M. Campbell

Thanks to co-Authors