“Foro Económico de Pesca y Acuacultura 2015”TENDENCIAS MUNDIALES DE LA COMERCIALIZACIÓN DE PRODUCTOS PESQUEROS Y

ACUÍCOLAS26 y 27 de noviembre de 2015 , Ciudad de México, Mexico

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Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General

Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

International trade in fish and fish production

OPENING QUESTIONS:

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First let us analyze the developments over the last decades and the present situation.

Will there be any international trade?

1. Due to political reasons?2. Due to lack of demand?3. Due to environmental reasons?

• Will there be any fish to trade?

• What are the challenges and what do we need to do about it?

1. Can we do anything about it?2. Should we do anything about it?

Total Landings of Marine Fisheries

3

Marine Fish Landings by Continent

19501952

19541956

19581960

19621964

19661968

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

4

Fish Landings: Developed vs Developing Nations

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0e+0

01e+

072e

+073

e+07

4e+0

75e+

076e

+07

yrs

Land

ings

(t)

5

Fish Landings: High vs Low Trophic Level

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Landings’ Proportion of Fish with Trophic Level=>4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1214

1618

20

% F

ish

TL=

>4

7

Global Trend in the State of World Marine Fish Stocks, 1974-2011

8

Proportion of overfished Stocks by FAO Statistical Area

9

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0Aquaculture for human consumptionCapture for human consumptionNon-food usesPer capita food fish supply

Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg)

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Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9%

[Million Tonnes]

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

China61%

Asia91%

Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production

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Capture Aquaculture

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Asia Africa Central America South America North America Europe Oceania

2004 to 2013% change in fish production by world region

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19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

0

5

10

15

20

25

World seafood exports Linear (World seafood exports)World seafood consumption Linear (World seafood consumption)

Kg p

er c

apita

per

yea

r

Globalization in a graph: world seafood exports vs world average seafood consumption 1976 to 2014

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2012 2013 20140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

35.2%

35.4%

35.6%

35.8%

36.0%

36.2%

36.4%

36.6%

36.8%

37.0%

Production volume Trade volume Proportion of production traded

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Perc

enta

ge tr

aded

Production vs trade – last three years

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19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Developed ImportDeveloping Import

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

Developed ExportDeveloping Export

World seafood trade: developed vs developing

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Jan-00

May-00

Sep-00Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14Jan-15

0

50

100

150

200

250

Fish Meat (Terrestrial)

Terrestrial meat price index vs. Fish price index Jan 2000 – Jan 2015

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Conclusion from this analyzes is:

• Total production has stabilized over the last 20 years.

• Capture fisheries landings have shifted from developed countries to developing countries.

• Degree of overfishing has been stabilizing over the last 20 years but is still unacceptable.

• Aquaculture is overtaking capture fisheries in production for human consumption.

• Great expansion in trade, particularly from developing countries to developed countries, is slowing down.

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Conclusion from this analyzes is:

A. Center of gravity for fish production has moved from developed countries to developing countries, where small scale

fisheries will be extremely important.

B. Center of gravity has moved from capture fisheries to aquaculture, particularly aquaculture in Asia.

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Will there be any international trade in fish?

1. Political reasons?

The general political environment is favorable.

Something dramatic has to happen to change that.

2. What about demand?

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• 805 million people estimated to be suffering from chronic hunger in 2012–14, down 100 million in the last decade.

• The vast majority, 791 million, live in developing countries.

Hunger

1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2009-11 2012-14700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1014.5

929.9 946.2

840.5805.3

994.1

908.7 930.8

824.9790.7

WorldDeveloping regions

No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %

WORLD 1 014.5 18.7 929.9 14.9 946.2 14.3 840.5 12.1 805.3 11.3

Number of undernourished (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment

1990–92 2000–02 2005–07 2008–10 2012–14*

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Vitamin A deficiency Causes blindness.250 million preschool children affected.Iron deficiencyAnaemia contributes to 20% of all maternal deaths.40% of preschool children anaemic in developing countries.Iodine deficiency Impairing cognitive development in children54 countries still iodine-deficient

Millions of children suffering nutrition deficiency

Source: WHO

805 million hungry people

Source: WHO

Trend Worldwide obesity has nearly doubled since

1980. Adults (aged 20 or older)

More than 1.4 billion (35% of total) overweight in 2008

Over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women (11 % of total) obese in 2008.

Children (under the age of 5) More than 40 million children overweight or

obese in 2012.

Billions of obese or overweight people

Source: WHO

Food security and nutrition status

Hunger hand-in-hand with poverty

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Contribution of fish to human nutrition

AsiaAfrica

EuropeOceania

Northern AmericaLatin America & Caribbean

LIFDCsWorld

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

22.919.4

11.610.3

7.66.5

24.116.7

%Fish as a percentage of total animal protein intake

Fish provides high quality animal protein Fish especially important to countries with low animal protein intake

Vitamin A

Protein

DHAEPA

Vitamin D

Vitamin B12

Zinc

Iron

Calcium

Selenium

Iodine

Fish, a source of nutrients Daily need (RDI) for children:

DHA+EPA (Ω-3); seafood main source 150 (250) µg

Vitamin A;250 million preschool children deficient

150 (250) mg

Iron; 1.6 billion people deficient

8.9 mg (at 10% bioavailability)

Iodine; seafood natural source, 2 billion people deficient

120 µg

Zinc; 800 000 child deaths per year

5.6 mg(at moderate

bioavailability)

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• .

OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022)

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average.Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.

WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections

Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red

Country/

region

Fish Demand (2030) Total

fish prod. (2012,

mil. tonne)

S-D gap2030

(col. 4 minus col. 3)

kg/cap.Total (mil. tonne

)

WORLD

29.1 261.2

156.5 -104.7

S.S. Africa

10.8 15.1

6.9 -8.2

L.A. & C.

12.2 18.3

14.8 -3.4

N. Africa

12.9 3.7

2.8 -0.8

Europe

27.3 23.4

16.0 -7.4

N. America

29.8 12.9

6.7 -6.1

Oceania

31.9 1.8

1.4 -0.3

Asia

37.0 186.3

107.8 -78.5

Future fish supply and demand projections

FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections

Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged

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What about environmental reasons?

a. Climate change: Video presentation delivered on the on the occasion of the Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact held in Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y

b. We have done relatively well in the last 20 years post CCRF. The situation is stable in fisheries but the next 20 years may be different, continued challenge.

c. Aquaculture has a very light ecological foot print compared to terrestrial animal protein production systems. However question marks around animal protein and trophic levels. 24

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Greater demand for certification and traceability

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FAO response

Guidelines

o for Eco-Labeling of Fish and Fishery Products from Marine Capture Fisheries (2005)

o for the Eco-Labeling of Fish and Fishery Products from Inland Capture Fisheries (2010)

o for Aquaculture Certification (2011)

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Bench Marking/Traceability

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Bench Marking/GSSI

Traceability/Catch Documentation

Committee on Fisheries (COFI) Sub-committee on Fish Trade (FT)

• Established in 1985, first session October 1986

• Open to all FAO members

• Functions:

periodic reviews of global markets

discussion of specific issues

promotion and development of fish trade, particularly in developing countries

formulation of recommendations, guidelines and standards

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Main Challenges There are many challenges some of which have been

mentioned

They fall into two categories:

1. Refining the management and governance of fisheries in developed and middle income-countries.

2. Refining the certification/traceability systems to benefit a broader group of producers.

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Main Challenges

However, there are two main fundamental major challenges, both in

the shadow of climate change:

• Aquaculture• Small Scale Fisheries

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GovernmentsGovernance:• Policy (environment, socio economic).

• Regulatory frameworks.• Monitoring and surveillance.

Infrastructure:• Technology, capacity, services.• Seed and feed.• Water and energy.

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Increased Aquaculture Production

Increased Aquaculture Production

Private Sector:Operations:• Resource use efficiency, best practices.• Business management, productivity.• Profitability.

Markets:• Access to consumers and finance.• Transparency, traceability, certification.• Codex and food safety.

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Sustainable Intensification of Aquaculture

• Feed utilizationFish meal, protein, FCR / BP, R&D, Genetics

• Water qualityO2, NH3, Silt / BP, R&D, Reg. F.W.

• Mortality ratesHusban., Inf.d., Vacc. / BP, R&D, Genetics

• ProfitabilityRes.util., prod., finance / Tech., exte.,fine.,

cc.

• Livelihoods and equityDecent work, gender and youth.

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Small Scale Fisheries in Developing Countries> 50 % of the total catch

> 90% of the workers

Almost always marginalized and in many cases the poorest of the poorest in their countries.

What possibilities do they have to improve their fisheries management? With help they can?

- What happens when you attempt to improve a fishery?- Fishing effort is reduced. Fishermen are left on the beach.- Total community income is reduced. The population suffers.

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A holistic community approach is needed that contains the following elements:

1. Improved fisheries management system taking into account the biological and the socio/economic circumstances.

2. Address the unemployment through creating alternative employment opportunities through:

a. Increasing the value of the catch with value addition and by increasing trade activity and internalizing the value chain income in the community by the communities’ greater participation in trade.

b. Developing aquaculture and other income generating ecosystem services in the community.

c. Seek investment from outside in these enterprises. Blue bonds/Green bonds.

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A holistic community approach is needed that contains the following elements:

3. Create a community/cooperative/enterprise fishing rights system that closes the fishery to newcomers but also links as beneficiaries both those that continue fishing as well as those taking on new activities in common enterprises with supporting outside Blue bond investment

4. Set up a bridging (at least) social support system to make up for community income loss during transitional period. This needs to be financed by central governments or traditional external donors.

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Doing this calls for involvement of both investors and trade business in creating new opportunities and training individuals and building capacity in the communities.

Also the traders need to be open to new products as well as the traditional ones.

However, if we don’t do it we risk fisheries collapsing and trade flows reducing as well as communities collapsing and therefore driving migration.

Involvement

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THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

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Muchas GraciasTakk

Thank you Merci