Water resources – future prospects and implications for food security

Jeremy Bird International Water Management Institute

Photo: Graeme Williams / IWMI

As water demand increases …..

…need a new approach to water security

Source: UN Water

Global water scarcity

Global grain trading: imbalances likely to increase

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/graphic/2012/feb/14/water-footprint-world-map

Virtual water: a reflection of global food trends

Water and grains: the vital link

2015 2050

12

22% 1244%

2.4bn 4.8bn

Without investments in water management the number of food-insecure people could double by 2050

Increasing threat by unsustainable water use:

Threat to global economy

Threat to food security

Threat to world’s grain production

39% 50%

Source: IFPRI and Veolia Water, 2013

Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Food supply under pressure

Photo: Bob Morris

Source: 10 Things You Ought to Know about Water. Circle of Blue. 2009. http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2009/world/infographic-ten-things-you-should-know-about-water/

TRENDS: Transition in water use – agriculture to industrial

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GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

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Consumption and income (1961-2000)

Source: IWMI

Meat requires 100 times more water than grain protein

Livestock: demand is growing, but water use can be reduced

Can reduce water use by:• Feeding with agricultural by-products and crop residues• Selecting and breeding crops and forages that use water efficiently• Closing crop yield gaps • Increasing animal productivity

e.g. dairy buffalo – reduced water use by more than 75%: from 2350 to 548 litres per kg milk. (ILRI)

Photo: Faseeh Shams / IWMI

Greater variability will impact on food production Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)

Source: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)

Droughts and floods: a growing influence on food prices

Wall Street Journal illustration:http://farmpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/MI-BQ581_FOOD_G_20120809184205.jpg

Photo: ILRI Mozambique ,2008

Food shortage and price rises – a precursor to food riots

Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI

Improved water management now on the global agenda

Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014.

World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2015 - Insight Report

The water crisis: a global risk to business

Identifying solutions for a water-stressed world

1. Sustainable groundwater management

2. More efficient use of surface water

3. Living with floods and droughts

4. Re-using waste

Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI

Recent data on water withdrawals from USA show that withdrawals in 2010 were lower than at any time in the past 40 years

Demand side management measures can make a difference

Increased water consumption is not inevitable

Economic productivity of water (GDP per 100 gallons)

Source: Pacific Institute

Water withdrawals and GDP

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Canal irrigated area Tank irrigated area Groundwater irrigated area

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Growth of irrigation in India driven by groundwater

Source: Mukherji et al. 2013.

India: Twin cases of ‘over-abstraction’ and ‘under-utilization’

Source: IWMI

Improving groundwater governance: Jyotigram Yojana, India

Power rationing led to more sustainable groundwater use, reduced electricity use and increased yields

Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI

Source: IWMI

Jyotigram Yojana – separating electricity feeder lines

Electricity Network Before Electricity Network After

Managing demand: swipe cards for pump operation

Photo courtesy: BMDA, Bangladesh

Photo courtesy: The Water Channel

Providing Incentives for renewable, sustainable and more efficient groundwater use

Photo: Prashanth Vishwanathan / IWMI

Solar pumps – renewable, but sustainable? Getting the incentives right.

Infographic: Rachel Cramer / IWMI

Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln

The Nebraska solution: recovery of water levels

Incentives in India - rapid expansion of drip irrigation – suitability depends on context

Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI

Precision surface irrigation: A viable alternative to drip irrigation

Pakistan: Land and Water productivity increases, reduced diesel costs

Photos: Arif Anwar / IWMI

Agriculture to urban transfers, China

Agricultural production levels maintained…

… as water allocation to agriculture is reduced and transferred to urban use

Water transfers between sectors can be managed

Source: IWMI. 2007. Transferring water from irrigation to higher valued uses: A case study of the Zhanghe irrigation system in China.

Murray Darling Basin: Water trading system

View graph - http://www.nwc.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0008/29780/Figure-3-8-MurrayGoDarling-Basin-monthly-water-allocation-trading-activity-percentage-of-volume-traded-and-average-price-2008-09-to-2011-12.jpg

Against the grain?: Beer from cassava reduces water demand

Photo courtesy: Nile Breweries Ltd.

Photo courtesy: Wikimedia Commons

Research into action: reducing water use in coffee, Vietnam

• Coffee - 3% of Vietnam’s GDP; employs around 2 million people• Water scarcity is the main threat • Many farmers over-irrigating• Research showed ‘water stress’ and strategic timing of irrigation

boosted yield• Savings on water and production costs

Photo Credit: Creative Commons, Wikimedia

Losses to agriculture from floods and droughts

Source: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Breeding flood-tolerance – “Scuba” rice

• 4 million tons of rice lost to floods in India and Bangladesh, annually• Scuba rice resilient to complete submergence up to 17 days• In India, 12 million hectares of flood-prone land under scuba rice

Source and Photo: IRRI 2008

January-April average min. temperature C°

7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5

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7.5

2010 2011

20062007

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2013y= 11.55 - 0.65X

r2=0.75

Adapting to climate change: Heat-tolerant wheat prove value in

Mexico

10C increase = 700 kg lower yield

2014

Source: H.-J. Braun, CIMMYT

2015

Rethinking storage : Underground ‘taming’ of floods for irrigation (UTFI)

Source: Paul Pavelic / IWMI 2012

Providing information to improve management decsions

Peri-urban: high risk polluted water use driven by city markets

Photo: IWMI

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In and around three of four cities in the developing world, farmers use polluted irrigation water for the production

of high-value crops

Global survey - irrigation source in urban & peri-urban areas

Photo: Pay Drechsel/IWMI

Wastewater: a valuable asset

Wastewater re-use: reducing health risks

IWMI‘s role• Assessing the extent of reuse, risks and benefits.• Developing & testing low-cost options for microbial risk reduction

(from farm to fork).• Supporting international guidelines and capacity building.

Securing water for a sustainable agricultural future

Need a major initiative on sustainable groundwater management…

..common problems – but context specific solutions Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI