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Global Market Trends
by Ambassador Susanne Hyldelund, Under-Secretary for The Trade Council
”Global Gateway to Export 2015”Koldkærgård Conference Center, Agro Food Park - Tuesday, June 9. 2015
2
Agenda
The Big Picture - Global Tendencies- Which megatrends to follow?
The Export Outlook- Where are the posibilities?
3
The Big PictureThe economic center of gravity is on the
move
Udvikling i jordens økonomiske tyngdepunkt1
4
Global Economic GrowthShort and Long Run
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Verden USA Euro-landene Kina
Note: Baseline 100 index = Real GDP Level Year 2014 .Source: Oxford Economics Ltd. and calculations by The Trade Council ‘s Aanlytical Department.
Long Run Accumulated Economic Growth
World
China
Euro Area
USA
World USA Euro Area China-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
3.1
2.01.4
6.8
3.8
2.82.1
6.7
The global recovery will gain momentum only slowlyReal GDP Growth, pct.
2002-2011 Avg. 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
%
Note: Growth Estimates - yearly real growth in GDP.Source: OECD Economic Outlook, June 2015.
5
Income levels towards 2030
GDP Growth (blue nuances) Income Level (green columns) – expressed in GDP per capita by 1.000 USD
Source: Centre for European Policy studies (2013)
6
Economic impact• Economic growth and
innovation.• Debt Dynamics.• Urbanization (Elderly cities)• Changing patters of
consumption• Need for new products,
services and business models.
Aging Societies
7
The Balance of Risks – Disclaimer!
2014 2030
EURO Crisis
Geo Conflicts
Climate Change
New Technologies
New forms of Energy
8
MFA Export Outlook 2015-2016
40.000
42.000
44.000
46.000
48.000
50.000
52.000
54.000
56.000
MFA Export Outlook for 2015 og 2016Vareeksporten, eksklusiv skibe, fly og energivarer, sæsonkorrigeret,
mill.kr. pr. måned. Årets priser.
Realiseret Skøn maj Årssnit pr. mnd.
2014 2015 2016
Tyskland 11,6% 2,6% 5,1%Sverige 3,9% -3,6% 5,2%USA 7,4% 23,4% 8,2%Storbritannien -2,2% 9,5% 8,8%Norge 1,0% -3,1% 2,9%Kina (ex Hongkong) 13,5% 20,7% 13,9%Frankrig 7,3% -2,2% 3,5%Nederlandene 2,0% -0,2% 1,8%Polen 8,5% 3,1% 6,7%Italien -0,4% 1,7% -0,8%Finland -0,3% 1,0% -1,3%I alt (Verden) 2,0% 5,7% 6,0%Heraf EU28 3,9% 2,2% 4,4%Heraf ikke EU-lande -0,9% 11,2% 8,4%Basisvareeksporten er vareeksporten eksklusiv energi, skibe og fly
Vækst i basisvareeksport, pct.
9
Danish Export: Volume and Growth
Vesteuropa62%
Udvalgte østeuropæiske
lande5%
Rusland og SNG2%
Nordafrika/Mellemøst/Golfen
.4%
Nordamerika10%
Latinamerika2%
Asien & Australasien
15%
Distribution of Danish Exports of Goods, 2014 (excluding exports of energy)
Vesteuropa35%
Udvalgte østeuropæiske
lande3%
Rusland og SNG-1%Nordafrika/Melle
møst/Golfen.8%
Nordamerika19%
Latinamerika4%
Asien & Australasien
30%
Distribution of GROWTH in Danish Exports of Goods, 2012-14
(excluding exports of energy)
10
Economic Diplomacy
• Government Strategy on Export Promotion and Economic Diplomacy (May 2014).- Economic Diplomacy as key tool across
Government.• Special priority to important growth markets
and key volume markets.• Partnerships with business, business
organisations and authorities.• Building more strategic relations with Danish
businesses.
11
12
Strategic sector cooperation and GPA
• MFA strengthening cooperation with Danish line ministries• Strategic sector export, e.g. Export of
the Danish Energy model• ”Partnering with Denmark – Danish
Authorities in Int. Cooperation” - 17 Growth Counsellors to 12 countries.
• Global Public Affairs – Strenghtened GPA advisory services – 40% target in 2020.