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Present, Future and the Way Forward Poultry Industry in Pakistan September 27, 2014 By: Khalil Sattar Senior Vice Chairman Pakistan Poultry Association

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Present, Future and the Way Forward Poultry Industry in Pakistan September 27, 2014 By: Khalil Sattar Senior Vice Chairman Pakistan Poultry Association

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Page 1: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Present, Future and the Way Forward Poultry Industry in Pakistan

September 27, 2014

By:

Khalil SattarSenior Vice Chairman

Pakistan Poultry Association

Page 2: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Present Status of Poultry Industry2012

• Broiler Parent Stock Placement 12 Million• Broiler Day Old Chicks 1.2 Billion• Broiler (Table Birds) Produced 1.05 Billion*• Average Annual Growth 12.5%• Live Weight 1.84 Billion Kg• Broiler Meat including Giblets 1.34 Billion Kg• Per Capita Poultry Meat Availability 7.4 Kg • Layer Parent Stock 0.75 Million• Table Egg Layers 40 Million• Total Table Egg Production 11.2 Billion*• Feed 7 Million MT

Data Source: Pakistan Poultry Association * Economic Survey of Pakistan’s figures are grossly incorrect

Page 3: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Present Status of Poultry Industry2013

• Contribution to GDP 1.7%• Feed Grain Consumption (Maize, Rice Tips, etc.) 3.5 Million

MT• Feed Grain; Maize, Jawar Consumption %age of

Total Production (Rice Tips – 20% of Rice Production) 61% • Farm Table Eggs Per Capita 62 Eggs• Live Poultry being put through value addition Less than 02%

Page 4: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Rank Country Production (1000 MT)

1 United States 17,012.002 China 14,050.003 Brazil 12,835.004 EU-27 9,550.005 India 3,420.006 Mexico 2,975.007 Russian Federation 2,950.008 Argentina 2,022.009 Turkey 1,700.00

10 Thailand 1,560.0011 Pakistan 1,050.00

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Pakistan’s World Positioning in Broiler Production

Page 5: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Contribution of Poultry Industry to the National Economy

• Poultry is by far the largest consumer of agro-residue and by-products, such as, oilseed meals, wheat bran, rice polishing, broken rice, corn gluten meal, guar meal, fish meal, animals’ by-product meal

• During 2012-13, about 7 million ton of poultry feed was produced, comprising about 3.5 million tons of these residues and by-products; thus providing extremely valuable contribution towards reduction in the cost of principal food items, like edible oils, Atta, rice, fish, sugar, fructose, etc. Thus, poultry not only made possible their availability at lower prices to the consumers, but also enabled the agro industries to pay a higher price for the crops which served as an incentive to produce more

Page 6: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Contribution of Poultry Industry to the National Economy

• In addition to the agro residue utilisation, poultry sector, during 2012-13, consumed about 3.5 million tons i.e. 61% of Maize and Rice Tip Production. The increase in production was sustained by higher prices offered by the poultry sector, which has directly benefited the farmers in the rural areas of Pakistan to produce more

Page 7: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Poverty Alleviation

• 1.7 Million Jobs:Poultry, during 2012-13, has provided approximately 1.7 million jobs to skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled workers deep into the rural areas; thereby reducing the influx of the rural population into urban areas in search of jobs

• Low Investments:In addition, since it can be started with low investment, it is an important means of self-employment and provides an opportunity to women to be self-employed. It has thus played an important role in poverty alleviation by improving rural economy

• Produced Across the Country:Poultry, as an alternate food, is now produced in remote areas of the country, like, Gilgit, Skardu, Turbat, Kalat, Mastung, Parachinar, Tahrparkar, D. G. Khan, Loralai, Zohb, Mianwali, etc. Thus, poultry has contributed to the national economy in many surpassing ways

Page 8: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Monthly Price Movement of Broilers (Lahore)

Jan

,04

Jul

Jan

, 05

Jul

Jan

, 06

Jul

Jan

,07

Jul

Jan

,08

Jul

Jan

, 09

July

Jan

, 20

10

July

Jan

, 20

11

July

Jan

, 20

12

July

Jan

, 20

13

July

Jan

, 20

14

July

25.00

35.00

45.00

55.00

65.00

75.00

85.00

95.00

105.00

115.00

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

Pric

e (in

Rup

ees)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Pakistan Poultry Association & daily DAWN

2010 201320112004 2012 2014

Page 9: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Monthly Price Movement of Day Old Chicks(Karachi)

Jan

,04

Jul

Jan

, 05

Jul

Jan

, 06

Jul

Jan

,07

Jul

Jan

,08

Jul

Jan

, 09

July

Jan

, 20

10

July

Jan

, 20

11

July

Jan

, 20

12

July

Jan

, 20

13

July

Jan

, 20

14

July

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Source: Pakistan Poultry Association

Pri

ce (

In R

up

ee

s)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 20132011 2014

Page 10: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Annual Price Movement of Day Old Chicks(Karachi)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pri

ce (

In R

up

ee

s)

Source: Pakistan Poultry Association & daily DAWN

Page 11: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Monthly Price Movement of Eggs(Karachi)

Jan

,04

Jul

Jan

, 05

Jul

Jan

, 06

Jul

Jan

,07

Jul

Jan

, 08

Jul

Jan

,09

July

Jan

, 10

July

Jan

, 11

July

Jan

, 12

July

Jan

, 13

July

Jan

, 14

July

10.00

30.00

50.00

70.00

90.00

110.00

Pri

ce (

in R

up

ee

s)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Pakistan Poultry Association & daily DAWN

2010 2012 20132011 2014

Page 12: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Jan

,04

Jul

Jan

, 05

Jul

Jan

, 06

Jul

Jan

,07

Jul

Jan

,08

Jul

Jan

, 09

Jul

Jan

, 10

Jul

Jan

, 11

Jul

Jan

, 12

Jul

Jan

, 13

Jul

Jan

, 14

Jul

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

Pric

e (in

Rup

ees)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Pakistan Poultry Association

20052004 20142012 2013

Price Movement of Feed(Per Kilogram)

Page 13: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Price Mechanism of Poultry Products

• Since poultry products, Day Old Chicks, Broilers and Table Eggs are perishable generic products, they are sold as a commodity.

• The prices are truly governed by demand-supply in a free market mechanism.

• The demand is highly elastic; a decrease in price widens the consumer base and an increase in price narrows the consumer base.

Page 14: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Factors Affecting Demand of Poultry Products

• Both broiler and egg demand are influenced by the prices of supplementary food items like beef, mutton, pulses, etc. and also reacts to fluctuating climate changes and Islamic calendars. For instance, during the month of Muharram, Ramadan, Safar and Zul Hajj chicken meat demand goes down and during the month of Shaban, Shawwal and Rabi-al-Awwal, being wedding season, demand goes up.

• Demand also changes with the percentage increase in per capita income. Egg demand decreases during summers and with the school closures and increase during winters.

Page 15: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Influence of Prices on Demand and Production of Poultry Products

Eggs:• At current prices, per capita income and inflation rates, a 1% decrease in

the egg prices is associated with a 0.5% increase in consumption. • A 1%* increase in income is associated with a 2% increase in per capita

consumption of eggs. • On the supply side, a 1% increase in price elicits a 1% increase in the

quantity of eggs produced/supplied per capita. • The analysis also shows that the farm price of eggs relative to the price

of wheat, a proxy for returns relative to feed costs, is a significant supply variable for egg production.

* The Pakistan Poultry Industry – A Policy Analysis Framework by Chemonics Int’l Consulting Division and USAID

Page 16: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Factors Affecting Demand and Supply of Poultry Products

Broilers:• A 1%* increase in broiler prices results in 0.9% decrease in per capita

consumption of chicken meat at current levels of red meat consumption, prices, income and inflation. Conversely, a 1% increase in price elicits a 0.7% increase in per capita production/ supply.

• A 1% net increase in income is associated with a 2.2% increase in chicken meat demand/consumption.

* The Pakistan Poultry Industry – A Policy Analysis Framework by Chemonics Int’l Consulting Division and USAID

Page 17: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Poultry – Fluctuating Fortunes

• 2004 saw a 40% reduction in production due to severe losses and adverse impact of Bird Flu.

• On revival of demand, in the face of 40% lower production, a sharp increase in prices elicit a very rapid expansion and modernization, increasing from 483 million broilers in the year 2003 to 830 million in the year 2008.

• Once again in 2007, faced with Bird Flu and a substantial increase in feed prices, industry suffered heavy losses. Day Old Chicks were distributed Free of Cost and eventually embryos were pulled out of incubators and destroyed resulting in closure of more than 50% broiler breeding farms, dropping the production back to 430 million broilers.

Page 18: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Poultry – Fluctuating Fortunes

• Broiler prices registered a sharp increase registering a peak of Rs 130/Kg and ever highest Day Old Chicks monthly average price of Rs 68.66 during April 2010, once again bringing about a sudden revival and further expansion.

• By the end of 2012, the supply had increased to 1.05 billion broilers.• During 2013, Day Old Chicks prices slummed as low as Rs 1/chick against

the cost of production of Rs 35 and were given away free as well. Broilers were being sold at Rs 20-30 below cost of production. In the face of wide spread New Castle disease outbreak, the sector had gone through serious losses.

Page 19: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Modernization Sets-in

• Modernization of broiler farms, for reasons of bio-security and efficiency, commenced in 2005.

• During 2005-10, some 1400 automated poultry sheds came into production with most modern technology adopting controlled environment houses, automation in heating & cooling, ventilation along with automatic feeding and drinking systems.

• At the end of 2013, there were over 6800 automated poultry houses. • The Advantage of regular uninterrupted supply benefited to the

consumer• The advantage of efficiency in cost was negated to the farmers on

account of prolonged outages of electricity in rural areas necessitating use of a generator and an additional stand by generator of the standby, producing electricity at a cost of over Rs 42/unit.

Page 20: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Expected Production 2018

• 1.4 billion broilers by 2018The sector at current rate of growth, by the end of 2018, would be producing 1.4 billion broilers from current 1.2 billion

• In order to sustain the existing growth rate of 15% production, the production of feed ingredients have to be increased particularly of corn at 15% per annum

Page 21: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Major Constraints and Recommendations to Sustain Growth in Production

• Disease Control• Diagnostic Facilities and Services have not increased at the same rate as

the demand for services. • Well equipped Government Veterinary Laboratories capable of carrying

out serology and virus isolation need to be established at district levels in all intensive poultry producing areas of the country.

Page 22: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Price Control – A Serious Constraint to Recovery of Lost Production

• Market Interventions Counter Productive: Ministry of Food & Agriculture has already advised the Provincial Chief Secretaries against price fixation and control of poultry products. Nonetheless, frequent price fixation and controls by the Administration by use of coercive measures of arrest and fines, particularly in the absence of any relief during periods of severe losses, is unjustified.

• Hoarding or manipulation of perishable generic commodity produced by over 30,000 farms is not possible.

• It sends wrong signals to the farmers and discourages them to place replacement flocks. The practice must be forcefully discouraged.

Page 23: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Major Constraints and Recommendations

to Sustain Growth in Production• Product Prices in a free market economy is the only source that issues a

directive to the producer to increase or decrease his production. • A high price yielding higher profits signals a need to expand production;

a price that is bearish is indicative of over production and signals the producer to reduce production.

• A market intervention, which may reduce the prices, would make the producer grope in the dark; the result would be distortion.

• The market forces are so strong that their direction cannot be successfully diverted by intervention. Eventually the market intervention will cost the consumer very dearly and, of course, many of the producers would be out of business.

Page 24: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Major Constraints and Recommendations

to Sustain Growth in Production• Live Bird Markets

Live bird markets have neither expended nor are capable of handling growing production. Distribution of live birds costs not only the producers, but also the wholesalers, retailers, consumers and the national economy on account of transit mortalities and loss of weights

• Law & Order SituationDue to law & order situation in the country, it is not unusual that a truck load carrying over 2,000 chicken and over 10,000 Day Old Chicks is hijacked in Punjab

• Price InstabilityThe frequent boom and burst to be prevented by bringing in stability through poultry processing. Value Addition – The Next Step Forward

Page 25: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

The Next Step Forward Processing and Value

Addition

Page 26: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Benefit to Consumers

• Generic Commodity Converted to Branded Products • Price Stabilization• Diversification in Products• Convenience• Competitive Pricing

Page 27: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Benefit to Consumers

• Branding Benefits • Safeguarding Brand Equity brings about:

Quality Assurance: Free of Bacteria, Virus, Toxins, Chemicals and Drug Residues (Vertical Integration)Food Safety (Vertical Integration – An Important Factor)

Over 250 Known Food borne Illnesses; some important ones are:BotulismCampylobacteriosis E-ColiHepatitisSalmonellosis, Etc.Cause: Bacteria, Virus, Parasites, Toxins, Drug Residues

Page 28: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Benefit to the State

• Means to Enhance GDPA Live Bird worth Rs 242, after value addition, generates sales revenue of Rs 512

• Exportable Products • Brings Foreign Exchange Earnings • Safeguards Health of the Nationals• Less Illness – Reduces Subsidies for Public Health Care

Page 29: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Exports

• Possible after Processing only • World Halal Food Trade in 2012 was worth US$ 3.5 Trillion (FAO/WHO)

• Countries of our interest, because of being in close proximity or being Muslim countries, requiring Halal products, imported chicken meat in the year 2011 to the tune of US $4.27 billion, growing approximately @ 8-10% per annum

• Pakistan, being predominantly a Muslim country, stands to benefit from growing demand of Halal food world over

• US$ 440 Million from 10% Value Added Exports10% Export of the Current Live Birds, when converted to Value Added Products i.e. 80,000 MT @ US$ 5500/MT, could earn over $440 Million per annum

Page 30: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Way Forward- Government to be a factor

Free Trade Agreements • Free Trade Agreement should, in fact, be Fair Trade Agreements. • No FTAs and MFN may include poultry and poultry products unless both

the countries have same regulations and protocols ensuring both countries have level playing field to have equal opportunities to export to one another.

• The poultry sector must be taken on board for evaluating protocols and regulations for every FTA or MFN where poultry is to be included.

• In the face of power outages and existing rate of import duties on inputs, level playing field would be difficult.

Page 31: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Way Forward- Government to be a factor

Fiscal Incentives• Fiscal incentives for modernisation of poultry production• Sales Tax Refund on Import of Plant and machinery not available to

poultry• Exemption from 5% Sales Tax levied on import of Plant & machinery in

the budget of 2014-15 was available to registered persons • Poultry farmers, not being producer of taxable goods, are being denied

registration, hence exemption• FBR may provide registration or alternatively accept NTN as an evidence

of being taxpayer• Since Poultry Plant, machinery and equipment being specific

requirement of poultry and can under no circumstances used for any other purpose

• To assist small producers commercial importers having sales tax registration be provided the benefit of refund of sales tax

Page 32: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Way Forward- Government to be a factor

Fiscal Incentives• Sales tax on soybean meal to be withdrawn• All poultry feed stuff including oil seed meals, such as canola meal,

sunflower meal, rape seed meal and all of the feed stuff including vitamin amino acid are exempted from sales tax

• Soybean meal is the only exemption which is subject to 5% sales tax• International prices of soybean have been bullish fluctuating between

$500 to $700 per metric ton, 5% sales tax substantially increases the cost of poultry feed.

Page 33: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Way Forward- Government to be a factor

Fiscal Incentives

• Withdrawal of Zero Rating of Sales Tax on Processed and Value Added Products has increased the cost of production by Rs 5 – 40/Kg. This would reduce the demand and defeat the economy of scale.

• The UK VAT Act 1994 Schedule-8 Group-1 specifies food of a kind used for human consumption is Zero Rated. The term food includes products eaten as part of a meal or as a snack. Food items are not only exempted but are zero rated and entitled to input tax credit. In USA too, many States exempt all food items whether processed or unprocessed from payment of VAT.

• Restoring Zero rating would encourage additional units in processing.• Only additional 8% processing would yield Rs. 3.8 billion in taxes.

Page 34: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Way Forward- Government to be a factor

Fiscal Incentives Need to Enhance Import Duty• The Indian Example: On entry of and commencing imports by

multinational fast food chains, the Indian Government clamped 100% import duty on importation of value added products. Our Government reduced the import duty from 50% to 25%. Though the bonded rate of duty filed by the Government of Pakistan under WTO regime was 100%

• Government of Pakistan reduced the import duty from 50% to 25%• The bonded rate of import duty filed by Government of Pakistan under

WTO regime is 100%• In view of higher cost of production and above all to encourage poultry

processing, rate of import duty may be enhanced from 25% to at least 50%

Page 35: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

• There is an apparent massive under-invoicing with regards to import of processed chicken meat from China

• Boneless, Skinless Chicken Breast meat imported @ US$ 0.70/Kg• Pakistan’s live bird cost: Rs 140/Kg• Pakistan’s Skinless Boneless Breast Meat Cost: Rs 385/Kg• The US FOB price of Halal, non-stunned, hand Zabiah Boneless, Skinless

Chicken Breast meat US$ 5.56• There is no example of $0.70/kg anywhere in the World • Proceedings for under-invoicing be instituted, both under the Customs

Regulations and State Bank Regulations • Minimum import price for frozen Skinless Boneless Breast Meat to be

fixed at US$ 4.25/kg, Skinless Boneless Leg meat at US$ 3.75/Kg and Skin-on Whole Chicken to be fixed at US$ 1.80/kg

Measures to PreventUnder-Invoicing and Misdeclaration

Page 36: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Way Forward- Government to be a factor

Fiscal Incentives• Imported inputs for producing value added products covered under PCT

Headings 0904.1200, 0910.9100, 1905.9000, 2103.9000 and 2501.0090 are subject to 15% to 35% rate of import duty and 17% sales tax

• On the other hand, finished products under FTA with Malaysia are duty free and from China importable at 16% import duty

• Import duties and sales tax on the above PCT headings needs to be withdrawn for the poultry processing sector under specific requirements

• Provide competitive support against other countries

Page 37: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

• Imports of Poultry Products from Malaysia are not Halal• Malaysia’s Halal Regulations allows stunning of chicken before slaughter

– a regulation not approved by the Government of Pakistan• Pakistan’s Halal regulation forbids stunning of birds before slaughter • Requires birds to be hand slaughtered • Requires feed to be free of pork products • Certificates accompanying import consignments of chicken products do

not clearly state that the birds were hand slaughtered and were not stunned

• Certificates do not certify that the chicken were fed a diet free of pork by products

• Certification for Imported Halal Chicken products must state clearly Chicken were Hand Zabiah without Stunning and were fed on feed free of pork products

Halal Certification for Imports

Page 38: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Thank You!

Page 39: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

CHICKEN MEAT IMPORTED BY COUNTRIES OF OUR INTEREST IN 2011

Country 000's of US$ UAE 670,362Saudia Arabia 1,768,589 Oman 188,593 Kuwait 316,500 Yemen 166,347Russia 596,742 CIS 322,782 Qatar 147,107Egypt 92,584 TOTAL: 4,269,606

Source: FAO

Page 40: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Value Addition to Chicken Increases GDP

ESTIMATED PRODUCTION OF BROILERS PER ANNUM A No of Birds 1 Billion

BIRDS SOLD IN LIVE FORM

Average Weight of a Live Bird B Kg 1.75Average Selling Price C Rs/LWKg 138.15Average Selling Price per Bird - (B x C) D Rs 241.76

REVENUE from live Chicken: (A x D) Rupees 242 Billion

INITIAL VALUE ADDITION – BIRDS SOLD AS DRESSED WHOLE CHICKEN

Average Price of Raw Skinless Carcass E Rs/Kg 277.22 Live bird yield of 55% F Grams 962.50Meat Value per bird (E x F) G Rs 266.82 Bye-parts Recovery per Bird H Rs 24.71 Revenue per bird (G + H) I 291.53 Percentage Addition over live 21%

REVENUE - Form Dressed Whole Chicken (A x I) Rupees 292 Billion

Page 41: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Value Addition to Chicken Increases GDP

BIRDS SOLD AS BONELESS MEAT Average Price of Raw Meat L Rs/Kg 497.00 Boneless Meat per bird at yield of 22.70% M Grams 397.25Meat Value per bird (F x G) N Rs 197.43 Drumsticks, wings, bone carcass & bye parts Recovery/Bird O Rs 107.89 Revenue per bird (H + I) P 305.33 Percentage Addition over live 26%

REVENUE – From Boneless Meat (A x P) Rupees 305 Billion

VALUE ADDITION TO MEATAverage Price of Value Added Products Q Rs/Kg 511.58 Birds required to Produce Boneless Meat for 1 kg of Value Added Products R 1.26

Price of Value Added Products per Bird (Q / R) S Rs 404.58Drumsticks, wings, Bone Carcass & Bye parts Recovery/Bird T Rs 107.89 Revenue per bird (S + T) U Rs 512.47 Percentage Addition over live 112%

REVENUE – From Further Value Addition (A x U) Rupees 512 Billion

Page 42: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Country's Total Broiler Production Birds 1,020,000,000Broilers Processed Birds 20,000,000Processing Target: Additional 8% Birds 81,600,000 Next 5 Years' Total Processing Birds 101,600,000

At target level proceeds from Sales of Live Broilers through Wet Market would beAverage Selling Price on Live Weight (FY 2012-13) Rs/Kg 131.88 AAverage Weight of Live Bird Kgs 1.75 BAverage price per Bird Rs/Kg 230.80 (A x B)Sales Proceeds at Target level of 101,600 thousand birds would be Rs (b) 23.40 AND BEING IN UNORGANISED SECTOR REVENUE FOR EXCHEQUER IS ZERO

Cont’d…

Target for Next 5 Year Revenue to Exchequer: Rs 3.8 Billion

Page 43: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Incremental Revenue For Exchequer IF Target Broilers are PROCESSED

ProcessingIndustry

Organized Sector

Wet MarketUnorganized

Sector

BenefitTo

Exchequer

Rs (b) Rs (b) Rs (b)Income Tax 2.10 - 2.10 Tax withholding on Supplies of packing material, marketing services, employees, utilities, food ingredients etc. 1.00 - 1.00 WPPF, WWF, EOBI & Social Security 0.50 - 0.50 Import Duty 0.20 - 0.20

Total 3.80 - 3.80 Contribution towards GDP

Sales Proceeds Rs (b) 45.60

Business generation for other industriesPacking Material Rs (b) 1.50 Marketing Rs (b) 2.60 Food ingredients Rs (b) 2.90

Total Rs (b) 7.00 Jobs Creation

Number of employees 14,600 Above estimate is based on single processing units performance of 2012-13

Target for Next 5 Year Revenue to Exchequer: Rs 3.8 Billion

Page 44: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

PCT ITEM ORIGIN IMPORTER NAME

AGENT NAME

CONSI-GNER

ASSESSED VALUE

ASSESSED UNIT VAL

DECLARED UNIT VAL

DEC’D VALUE QTY UNIT CASH

NOCASH DATE

B/E TYP

EPORT

0207.4500

FROZEN

CHICKEN

BREAST

BONELESS

SKINLESS

CHINA

PAK

FOODSHAPPY LINKERS

HANTONE

INDUSTRY

LIMITED TRUST COMPA

NY

18900 0.70 0.70 18900 27000 KG 7131 21 May 2014 HC KAPE

18900 0.70 0.70 18900 27000 KG 7131 21 May 2014 HC KAPE

18900 0.70 0.70 18900 27000 KG 9299 21 May 2014 HC KAPE

18900 0.70 0.70 18900 27000 KG 9299 21 May 2014 HC KAPE

Measures to PreventUnder-Invoicing and Misdeclaration

Page 45: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Comparison of Deflated Prices of Selected Food Items

2003-04 vs. 2013-14

ItemsPrice per Kg Inflation Corrected

Price (Rs.) * Inflation Corrected

Increase (%) 2003-04 2013-14

A B C D Chicken 58.67 168.23 110.15 10.15

Eggs (Farm) – Per Dozen 42.81 92.39 50.01 (49.99)

Beef (with bone)** 55.19 250.27 189.56 89.56

Mutton (Avg. quality)** 111.53 354.80 254.80

* Deflated to the extent of (%): 99

Current Price per Kg (B) – (Previous Price per Kg (A) x Deflation %) = Inflation Corrected Price (C) 168.23 – (58.67 x 99%) = Inflation Corrected Price (C) (168.23 – 58.08) = 110.15

Inflation Corrected Price (C) - (Previous Price per Kg (A) / (Previous Price per Kg (A) x 100 = Inflation Corrected Increase (D)110.15 – (58.67 / 58.67) x 100 = Inflation Corrected Increase (D)110.15 – (1 x 100) = 10.15**Data Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan

Page 46: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Price Movement of Broilers in Lahore

  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

January 44.32 56.48 48.81 52.29 58.65 69.84 93.23 92.65 137.26 139.03 151.55

February 29.62 45.25 47.89 68.18 57.41 99.11 98.79 118.00 138.28 116.64 130.57

March 33.74 47.16 36.17 62.03 77.84 103.42 129.10 119.26 137.65 100.32 138.29

April 50.87 67.57 42.45 71.37 89.93 91.47 123.58 103.00 152.23 116.67 141.20

May 65.81 67.97 39.67 56.42 70.33 90.13 107.57 94.35 124.74 116.23 140.29

June 61.17 60.90 66.29 53.58 65.32 85.80 96.93 106.29 132.73 149.87  136.80

July 53.42 66.39 80.57 53.65 81.40 103.80 104.61 137.45 161.52  141.23 137.97

August 56.52 63.10 78.52 76.68 90.81 111.23 110.87 141.13 124.52  148.97 128.48

September

53.00 68.33 67.27 75.53 90.55 110.90 126.93 108.97 98.27  117.90

October 59.55 63.50 66.71 72.77 83.84 108.42 99.03 99.48 92.45  110.03

November

61.20 66.00 50.26 60.55 76.26 99.23 86.84 94.97 92.90  106.13

December

64.68 53.48 44.94 61.97 73.71 85.61 86.97 103.81 118.35  137.52

Average 52.83 60.51 55.80 63.75 76.34 96.58 105.37 109.95 125.91 125.05 138.14

Page 47: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Price Movement of Day Old Chicks(Karachi)

  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

January 13.16 18.13 11.11 4.38 8.67 16.38 49.19 21.93 49.16 29.23 43.42

February 4.36 17.50 13.71 17.22 9.82 27.21 65.40 37.39 49.27 21.21 37.96

March 6.41 20.09 9.80 20.10 20.12 32.33 68.06 43.30 38.80 8.48 46.52

April 11.64 20.93 7.30 18.38 21.00 28.20 68.66 22.24 37.60 6.47 51.70

May 12.33 19.73 5.32 10.32 9.67 27.82 52.03 15.65 38.96 7.77 59.06

June 14.30 19.64 16.46 7.56 7.96 28.25 52.56 26.59 36.43  28.03 50.53

July 13.01 17.71 23.35 8.45 10.54 38.73 53.39 46.00 43.74  24.19 44.81

August 13.21 18.05 29.80 21.06 15.77 50.58 52.28 46.90 37.32  24.61 35.35

September

16.75 20.62 31.40 19.83 22.53 62.68 59.81 34.90 19.70  30.53

October 17.18 21.40 26.90 21.29 19.60 64.67 45.25 27.19 13.10  29.32

November

17.12 22.94 9.59 13.39 8.96 65.10 23.36 33.40 23.33  29.13

December

20.17 15.04 2.57 6.90 6.38 42.87 12.93 39.12 30.19  45.81

Average 13.30 19.32 15.61 14.07 13.42 40.65 50.24 32.88 34.80 23.73 46.17

Page 48: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

Price Movement of Eggs(Karachi)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

January 34.00 44.90 35.93 35.33 56.33 49.39 74.78 80.51 107.33 102.51 104.76

February 20.87 37.47 21.87 34.63 49.78 55.13 57.30 61.88 94.93 80.17 101.83

March 20.90 27.53 18.00 36.77 37.77 53.81 53.78 71.41 81.17 83.10 109.51

April 22.60 29.63 17.80 23.67 50.59 50.93 45.07 58.77 64.13 69.87 73.40

May 23.43 25.30 16.33 27.10 40.44 42.19 51.27 58.74 73.05 64.67 76.69

June 26.87 27.03 22.17 32.97 41.19 42.30 54.67 65.91 65.01  67.56 81.37

July 33.07 35.17 22.80 38.07 52.00 44.73 50.61 76.74 72.68  70.89 89.24

August 34.20 30.03 30.10 40.07 53.06 53.33 64.37 76.13 74.46  83.26 107.13

September

31.73 33.50 29.87 41.83 52.40 57.61 65.02 80.48 81.62  95.63

October 32.03 38.40 31.30 46.37 57.97 70.74 74.57 80.17 102.08  92.93

November 37.60 41.70 40.30 50.20 64.83 75.40 74.12 83.99 106.23  110.35

December 40.73 45.60 46.93 54.87 68.00 71.93 80.09 96.47 115.16  108.13

Average 29.84 34.69 27.78 38.49 52.03 55.62 62.14 74.27 86.49 85.75

Page 49: Ppa presentation sep '2014 (1)

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

January 12.08 12.98 14.38 14.18 15.38 20.48 24.88 26.14 34.30 33.96 40.60 44.70

February 12.08 12.98 14.38 14.18 15.38 21.48 24.88 26.50 35.56 33.96 42.17 44.70

March 12.08 12.98 14.58 14.18 16.18 21.48 24.08 26.29 35.56 35.29 43.22 46.70

April 12.08 13.38 14.58 13.98 16.18 22.88 24.08 26.29 35.56 35.56 43.22 46.70

May 12.08 13.78 14.58 13.98 16.18 22.88 24.08 26.41 34.89 35.56 44.12 46.70

June 12.18 13.38 14.58 13.58 16.68 22.88 24.08 28.92 36.36 35.56 44.70 46.70

July 12.28 13.38 14.58 13.58 16.68 24.88 24.08 30.09 33.96 36.23 44.70

August 12.28 13.38 14.58 13.58 17.18 24.88 24.08 30.70 33.96 38.64 44.70

September

12.48 13.38 14.38 13.58 17.88 24.88 24.08 31.76 33.96 40.42  44.70  

October 12.48 13.38 14.38 13.98 18.68 24.88 24.08 32.80 33.96 40.42  44.70  

November 12.48 13.38 14.38 15.38 19.48 24.28 24.39 33.84 33.96 40.60  44.70  

December 12.63 13.88 14.18 15.38 19.48 24.28 24.39 34.00 33.96 40.60  44.70  

Average 12.2713.36

14.46 14.13 17.11 23.35 24.27 29.48 34.67 37.31 43.43

Price Movement of Feed(Per Kilogram)