View
713
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on
candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.
Joe Stewart Executive Director
[email protected] (919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
E2E Tools
§ Dedicated employee website § Landing pages § Mobile App § Videos § Snapshotz § Workplace posters § Social media (Facebook,
Twitter, LinkedIn) § Spanish Translation
RELATABLE, UNDERSTANDABLE, ACTIONABLE 4
§ Now over 70 key industry and demographic associations partnering with JCN to push out E2E content.
§ Women, Hispanic and Young Entrepreneurs Coalitions.
§ Provides potential employee reach to millions of employees through the member companies of our partners
21
5
What were we expecting?
þ Lots of attention from Presidential candidates
¥ Presidential excitement mattered, but OH & FL ‘hail Mary’ for Kasich & Rubio overshadowed
þ Up-ballot voter ’anger’ might impact down-ballot
¥ Not so much
þ Significance of GOP infighting
¥ To be determined
@NCFEF
2016 Election – Outcome Overview
Votes Cast 2,300,955
TO (‘12=34.66%) 35.34%
Presidential GOP
TRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO
40.24% 36.77% 12.68% 7.71%
Presidential DEM
CLINTON SANDERS
54.59% 40.76%
Presidential LIB JOHNSON NO PREF
38.1% 36.5%
Connect NC 65.56% YES 34.44% NO
AmericanSamoa 3/22/16 9Arizona 3/22/16 58Utah 3/22/16 40
NorthDakota 4/1/16 28Wisconsin 4/5/16 42NewYork 4/19/16 95ConnecBcut 4/26/16 28Delaware 4/26/16 16Maryland 4/26/16 38
Pennsylvania 4/26/16 71RhodeIsland 4/26/16 19
GOPDELEGATES Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson
1,237toWin
2,472Total 621 396 168 138 8
Indiana 5/3/16 57Nebraska 5/10/16 36
WestVirginia 5/10/16 34Oregon 5/17/16 28
Washington 5/24/16 44California 6/7/16 172Montana 6/7/16 27NewJersey 6/7/16 51NewMexico 6/7/16 24SouthDakota 6/7/16 29
2016 Primary: US Senate
Paul Wright
Larry Holmquist
Richard Burr (I)
Greg Brannon
@NCFEF
61.4% 8.5% 4.9% 25.2%
þ
2016 Primary: US Senate
@NCFEF
Chris Rey
Deborah Ross
Kevin Griffin
Ernest T. Reeves
9.4% 16.5% 62.4% 11.7% Sean Haugh
þ
CVBforNCSENATE34REP–16DEMSTRONGDEM(16) COMPETITIVE(4) LEANREP(6) STRONGREP(24)
28 Robinson
Guilford 21 Clark
Hoke 19 Meredith
Cumberland
8 RabonBrunswick 50
DavisMacon 24
GunnAlamance 39
Rucho(NR)Mecklenburg
40 Waddell*
Mecklenburg
5 DavisGreene
1 CookBeaufort
9 Lee*NewHanover 46
DanielBurke 47
HiseMitchell 31
KrawiecForsyth
38 Ford
Mecklenburg 13 Smith*
Robeson 25 McInnis*
Richmond 15 Alexander*Wake 27 Wade
Guilford
2 SandersonPamlico 44
Cur]sLincoln
14 Blue
Wake 23 Foushee
Orange 18 Barefoot
Wake 10 B.Jackson
Sampson 11 Newton
(NR)Wilson
45 Soucek(NR)
Watauga 35 Tucker
Union
20 McKissick
Durham 22 Woodard
Durham 12 Rabin
Harnea
6 BrownOnslow 48
Apodaca(NR)Henderson 42
Wells*Catawba
4 BryantNash 37
J.JacksonMecklenburg 17
BarringerWake 41
TarteMecklenburg 36
Hartsell(NR)Cabarrus 33
Bingham(NR)Davidson
3
Smith-Ingram*Edgecombe
16 Stein(NR)
Wake 26 Berger
Rockingham 43 Harrington
Gaston 30 Randleman
Wilkes
32 Lowe*Forsyth 49 Van
Duyn*Buncombe
*freshman NR = not running in 2016
7 PateWayne 34
BrockDavie 29
TillmanRandolph
9SENATEREPUBLICANWINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INCLBRSD06 SR HarryBrown 95.0SD07 SR LouisM.PateJr. 95.0SD08 LR BillRabon 85.9SD10 LR BrentJackson 95.0SD26 SR PhilBerger 95.0SD29 SR JerryW.Tillman 90.0SD34 SR AndrewCBrock 85.8SD42 SR AndyWells 90.0SD43 SR KathyHarrington 90.0
4SENATEDEMOCRATWINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INCLBR
SD03 SD EricaSmith-Ingram 47.8SD05 SD DonDavis 48.3SD14 SD DanBlue 55.0SD32 SD PaulLoweJr. 45.0
SENATEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD01 CO 1,165 80.0 èBillCook BrownieFutrell
SD02 SR 3,151 90.0 NormanSanderson DorotheaWhite
SD09 LR 13,579 90.0 MichaelLee AndrewBarnhill
SD12 LR 15,450 90.0 RonaldRabin SusanByerly
SD15 LR 16,411 65.0 JohnAlexander LaurelDeegan-FrickeBradHessell
SD17 LR 27,427 80.0 TamaraBarringer SusanEvansSusanHogarth
SD18 CO 16,934 90.0 ChadBarefoot GilJohnson
SD19 CO 5,560 78.9 WesleyMeredith ToniMorris
SENATEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD24 SR 4,950 95.0 RickGunn JohnThorpe
SD25 CO -2,603 90.0 TomMcInnis DannieMontgomery
SD27 SR 9,258 90.0 TrudyWade MichaelGarreaSD30 SR -2,189 90.0 ShirleyRandleman MichaelHolleman
SD41 SR 28,598 90.0 JeffTarte JonathanHudsonChrisCole
SD46 SR -2,428 80.5 WarrenDaniel AnneFischerSD47 SR -1,473 85.8 RalphHise MaryJaneBoydSD50 SR 865 87.5 JimDavis JaneHipps
SENATEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD13 SD -553 54.2 JaneW.Smith DannyEarl(JR)Bria
SD20 SD 9,597 32.5 FloydB.McKissick,Jr. BarbaraHowe
SD22 SD 14,891 52.3 MikeWoodard GregDouceae
SD23 SD 11,812 37.2 ValerieP.Foushee MaryLopezCarter
SD28 SD 7,432 28.6 GladysA.Robinson DevinR.King
SD37 SD 15,790 38.2 JeffJackson BobDiamond
SD49 SD 8,910 45.0 TerryVanDuyn WilliamMeredith
SENATEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
SD31 SR 5,819 85.8
JoyceKrawiec(I)þ DempseyBrewerPeterAnBnozzi
62.3%
27.3%
10.4%
SD35 SR 16,584 90.8TommyTucker(I)þ MaXDaly
61.6%
38.4%
SD44 SR 8,165 90.0DavidL.Cur]s(I)þChrisCarney
51.1%NicHaag
49.9%
SENATEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
SD04 SD -3,495 45.0AngelaR.Bryant(I)þ JamesMills
81.2%RichardScoa
18.8%
SD21 SD 5,996 77.5
BenClark(I)þ EronomySmithNaveedAziz
49.9%
DanTravieso5.9%
44.2%
SD38 SD 22,663 70.0JoelFord(I)þ RoderickDavis
52.1%RichardRiveae
47.9%
SD40 SD 12,219 35.8JoyceWaddell(I)þ NasifMajeed
64.6% MargueriteCooke35.4%
OPENSEATRACES–NCSENATEDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
SD11NEWTON(R)
SR
4,638
79.4
BentonSawrey 48.4%RickHornerþ 51.6%AlbertPacer 100%
SD16STEIN(D) SD 17,905
40.0
JayChaudhuriþ 63.1%EllisHankins 36.9%EricWeaver 100%
SD33BINGHAM(R) SR
791
85.8
CathyDunnþ 40.1%JoeD.Kennedy 27.7%EddieGallimore 32.2%JimBeallGraham 100%
SD36HARTSELL(R) SR 14,784 85.5
AndrewW.Platek 34.9%RobertBrownþ 65.1%
AmyBlake 21.4%ParishMoffiX 11.6%
PaulR.Newtonþ 37.0%ScoXC.Aumuller 30.0%
OPENSEATRACES–NCSENATE
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
SD39RUCHO(R)
SR
13,641 83.0LloydScher 100%
DanBishop 100%
SD45SOUCEK(R) SR -519 85.0
DeannaBallardþ 52.9%
KenBoham 47.1%
ArtSherwood 100%
SD48APODACA
(R)SR 7,675
95.0
ChuckEdwardsþ 56.2%
DennisJusBce 9.9%
LisaCarpenterBaldwin 33.9%
NormanBossert 100%
STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. Hall
Durham 114 Fisher
Buncombe 66 Goodman
Richmond 118 Presnell
Yancey 55 Brody
Union 86 Blackwell
Burke 110 Hastings
Gaston 96 Adams*
Catawba
106 Cunningham
Mecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 39 Jackson
Wake 49 Pendleton*
Wake 14 Cleveland
Onslow 82 Pittman
Cabarrus 77 Warren
Rowan 69 Arp
Union
102 Carney
Mecklenburg 5 Hunter Hertford 50
Meyer Orange 9 Murphy**
Pitt 36 Dollar Wake 15 Shepard
Onslow 98 Bradford*
Mecklenburg 13 McElraft
Carteret
31 Michaux
Durham 32 Baskerville (NR)
Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45 Szoka
Cumberland 40 Avila
Wake 109 Bumgardner
Gaston 91 Hall**
Stokes 81 Brown (NR)
Davidson
33 Gill
Wake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 54 Reives
Lee 63 Ross
Alamance 37 Stam (NR)
Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)
Johnston 74 Conrad
Forsyth 87 Robinson
Caldwell
99 Moore
Mecklenburg 100 Cotham (NR)
Mecklenburg 44 Richardson**
Cumberland 53 Lewis
Harnett 62 Blust
Guilford 16 Millis
Pender 104 Bishop (NR)
Mecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis Holley
Wake 23 Willingham*
Edgecombe COMP (8) 93 Jordan
Ashe 111 Moore
Cleveland 83 Johnson
Cabarrus 10 J. Bell
Wayne 95 Fraley
Iredell
60 Brockman*
Guilford 47 Graham
Robeson 119 Queen
Haywood 1 Steinburg Chowan 75
Lambeth Forsyth 19
Davis New Hanover 84
R. Turner Iredell 89
Setzer Catawba
58 Johnson*
Guilford 30 Luebke
Durham 2 Yarborough* Person 65
Jones Rockingham 88
Bryan Mecklenburg 4 Dixon
Duplin 17 Iler
Brunswick 68 Horn
Union
107 Alexander
Mecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 22 Brisson Bladen 3 Speciale
Craven 25 Collins
Nash 59 Hardister
Guilford 108 Torbett
Gaston 94 Elmore
Wilkes
56 Insko
Orange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 92 Jeter
Mecklenburg 51 Salmon*
Harnett 103 Brawley
Mecklenburg 61 Faircloth
Guilford 105 Schaffer (NR)
Mecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24 Farmer-
Butterfield Wilson
7 Richardson Franklin 11
5 Ager* Buncombe 64
Riddell Alamance
Catlin (NR) New Hanover 52
Boles Moore 97
Saine Lincoln
48 Pierce
Scotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 6 Tine (NR) Dare 11
6 B. Turner* Buncombe
Hager Rutherford 11
7 McGrady Henderson 85
Dobson McDowell
71 Terry
Forsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 8 S. Martin Wilson 35
Malone Wake
Whitmire (NR) Transylvania 12
0 West (NR) Cherokee 73
Zachary* Yadkin
57 Harrison
Guilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 41 Adcock*
Wake 28 Langdon (NR)
Johnston 80 Watford
Davidson
27 Wray
Northampton 11 D. Hall
Wake *freshman **appointed NR = not running in 2016
90 Stevens
Surry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101 Earle
Mecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)
Columbus 67 Burr
Stanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVBforNCHOUSE74REP–45DEM–1UNA
23HOUSEREPUBLICANWINNERSDISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015LBRHD004 SR JimmyDixon 90.0HD014 SR GeorgeG.Cleveland 75.0HD019 SR TedDavis,Jr. 90.0HD061 SR JohnFaircloth 90.0HD062 SR JohnM.Blust 79.2HD063 LR StephenRoss 92.5HD064 LR DennisRiddell 90.0HD068 SR CraigHorn 85.5HD075 SR DonnyCLambeth 90.0HD076 SR CarlFord 76.7HD078 SR AllenMcNeill 85.8HD079 SR JuliaCravenHoward 80.9HD080 SR SamWaiord 90.0HD085 SR JoshDobson 95.0HD089 SR MitchellSetzer 77.5HD096 SR JayAdams 85.8HD097 SR JasonR.Saine 90.5HD098 SR JohnR.BradfordIII 90.0HD108 SR JohnA.Torbea 95.0HD110 SR KellyHas]ngs 90.0HD111 SR TimMoore 95.0HD112 SR MikeHager 95.0HD117 SR ChuckMcGrady 80.8
19HOUSEDEMOCRATWINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015LBRHD005 SD HowardJ.HunterIII 43.2HD012 SD GeorgeGraham 67.5HD023 SD ShellyWillingham 31.1HD029 SD LarryD.Hall 24.1HD031 SD MickeyMichaux,Jr. 35.8HD039 SD DarrenJackson 59.2HD042 SD MarvinW.Lucas 73.0HD043 SD ElmerFloyd 66.7HD048 SD GarlandE.Pierce 49.2HD056 SD VerlaInsko 19.1HD057 SD PriceyHarrison 12.0HD060 SD CecilBrockman 67.5HD066 SD KenGoodman 92.5HD071 SD EvelynTerry 38.2HD072 SD EdHanesJr. 80.9HD099 SD RodneyW.Moore 80.0HD102 SD BeckyCarney 63.3HD106 SD CarlaCunningham 47.3HD114 SD SusanC.Fisher 14.5
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD002 COMP -1,605 85 LarryYarborough JoeParishHD008 COMP 1,861 90 SusanMar]n CharliePaaFarrisHD041 COMP 15,176 54.2 GaleAdcock ChrisShoffnerHD115 COMP 3,778 50 èJohnAger FrankMoretzHD119 COMP 1,119 48.3 JoeSamQueen MikeClampiaHD044 LD 1,998 50 BillyRichardson JimArpHD054 LD 5,531 50 RobertT.ReivesII WesleySeawellHD001 LR 768 92.5 BobSteinburg SamDavisHD003 LR 368 71.7 MichaelSpeciale MarvaFisherBaldwinHD035 LR 14,184 69.2 ChrisMalone TerrenceEveriaHD045 LR 2,902 90 JohnSzoka RobertaWaddle
HD049 LR 2,346 66.8 GaryPendleton CynthiaBallDavidUlmer
HD065 LR -2,516 85.8 BertJones H.KeithDuncan
HD118 LR 508 85.8 MicheleD.Presnell RhondaC.Schandevel
HD051 LR 5,706 76.7 èBradSalmon JohnSauls
HD116 LR 5,296 63.3 BrianTurner KayOlsen
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLYDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD010 SR 8,137 92.5 JohnR.Bell EvelynPaulHD013 SR 2,265 95.0 PatMcElrak RodneyAlexanderHD015 SR 811 90.0 PhillipShepard DanWhiaenHD016 SR 7,204 81.7 ChrisW.Millis SteveUngerHD025 SR 830 85.5 JeffCollins JimLeeHD040 SR 13,125 73.9 MarilynAvila JoeJohnHD055 SR 683 85.8 MarkBrody KimHargeaHD059 SR 5,676 81.7 JonHardister ScoaJonesHD069 SR 6,387 90.8 DeanArp GordonDanielsHD070 SR 605 85.8 PatB.Hurley LeeBohnsackHD074 SR 1,963 85.8 DebraConrad MarilynBakerHD086 SR -161 85.5 HughBlackwell TimBarnsbackHD088 SR 1,353 92.5 RobBryan MaryBelkHD090 SR -737 90.0 SarahStevens VeraSmithReynoldsHD094 SR -729 85.0 JeffreyElmore MichaelLentzHD103 SR 6,714 90.5 BillBrawley RochelleRivasHD109 SR 1,476 77.5 DanaBumgardner SusanMaxon
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD007 SD -72 44.2 BobbieJ.Richardson WilliamD.HancockII
HD011 SD 5,646 54.2 DuaneHall BrianLewis
HD018 SD 4,737 68.9 SusiHamilton GeraldBenton
HD030 SD 11,548 11.3 PaulLuebke ElissaFuchs
HD034 SD 2,625 29.1 GrierMar]n BillMorris
HD038 SD 9,300 35.8 YvonneLewisHolley OlenWatsonIII
HD050 SD 6,127 51.8 GraigR.Meyer RodChaney
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARYONLY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT
HD021 SD -8 62.5LarryM.Bell(I)þScoXySmith
85.5%14.5%
HD022 CO 176 90.0WilliamBrisson(I)þBenSnyder
53.5%46.5%
HD024 SD 1,765 42.7 JeanFarmer-Buaerfield(I)þKandieSmith
61.9%38.1%
HD027 SD -3,357 80.0MichaelH.Wray(I)þFranklinWilliamsJr.
52.6%47.4%
HD033 SD 8,249 45.0RosaUGill(I)þBernardAllenIIIShirleyHicks
65.5%12.6%21.9%
HD047 SD 509 55.8CharlesGraham(I)þRandallJones
58.0%42.0%
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD058 SD 1,995 52.3RalphC.Johnson(I)AmosQuickþ
28.6%
71.4%
HD101 SD 10,098 45.0BeverlyMillerEarle(I)þ StevenJones
78.1% Jus]nDunn20.9%
HD107 SD 8,900 58.3KellyAlexander(I)þ RobertBlok
90.5%
9.5%
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARYDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD017 SR 7,812 90.0 FrankIler(I)þMarionDavis
67.8%CharlesWarren
32.2%
HD036 SR 6,399 85.8 NelsonDollar(I)þMarkVillee
55.8% JenniferFerrellBrianIrving44.2%
HD052 SR 4,640 90.0 JamieBoles(I)þJohnZumwalt
53.7%46.3%
HD053 LR 7,740 90.5 DavidR.Lewis(I)þChuckLevorse
78.6%JonBlum
21.4%
HD067 SR -472 81.7 Jus]nP.Burr(I)þLaneBurris
50.9%CarsonR.Snyder
49.1%
HD073 SR -437 95.0 LeeZachary(I)þDwightShook
51.5%48.5%
HD077 SR 140 81.7 HarryWarren(I)þAndrewPoston
71.4%28.6%
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARYDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD017 SR 7,812 90.0 FrankIler(I)þMarionDavis
67.8%CharlesWarren
32.2%
HD036 SR 6,399 85.8 NelsonDollar(I)þMarkVillee
55.8% JenniferFerrellBrianIrving44.2%
HD052 SR 4,640 90.0 JamieBoles(I)þJohnZumwalt
53.7%46.3%
HD053 LR 7,740 90.5 DavidR.Lewis(I)þChuckLevorse
78.6%JonBlum
21.4%
HD067 SR -472 81.7 Jus]nP.Burr(I)þLaneBurris
50.9%CarsonR.Snyder
49.1%
HD073 SR -437 95.0 LeeZachary(I)þDwightShook
51.5%48.5%
HD077 SR 140 81.7 HarryWarren(I)þAndrewPoston
71.4%28.6%
HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD082 SR 9,031 69.2 LarryG.Piaman(I)þMichaelFischer
52.9% EarleSchecter47.1%
HD083 SR 4,343 90.0 LindaP.Johnson(I)þNathanStone
61.6% JeremyHachen38.4%
HD084 SR 1,890 90.0 RenaW.Turner(I)þKirkSherrill
63.8% JohnWayneKahl36.2%
HD087 SR -1,545 87.5GeorgeS.Robinson(I)Des]nHallþ40.3%59.7%
HD092CO15,160 86.7èCharlesJeter(I)þTomDavis
50.2%ChazBeasley
49.8%
HD093 LR 1,326 81.7 JonathanC.Jordan(I)þLewHendricks
73.9%SueCounts
26.1%
HD095 SR 5,348 95.0 JohnA.Fraley(I)þDavidW.Thompson
68.5%31.5%
OPENSEATRACES–NCHOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULT
èHD006TINE(U) CO 238 90.0
JudyJusBce 28.2%WarrenJudgeþ 71.8%AshleyWoolard 36.7%BeverlyBoswellþ 39.3%
HD020CATLIN(R) SR 6,747 78.9
HollyGrangeþ 62.0%TammyCovil 38.0%
HD026DAUGHTRY(R)SR 8,091 95.0
DennisNielsen 40.4%DonnaMcDowellWhiteþ 59.6%RichNixonþ 100%
HD028LANGDON(R) SR 4,368 85.8
JimmieM.Massengill 49.6%PatriciaOliverþ 50.4%GregoryA.Dail 8.1%LarryC.Stricklandþ 50.1%TonyBraswell 41.8%
HD032B’VILLE(D) SD -1,692 40.8
GaryLamontMilesSr 32.7%TerryGarrisonþ 67.3%
OPENSEATRACES–NCHOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULT
HD37STAM(R) SR 12,046 85.8
LindaHunt-Williams 100%JonathanGraham 100%RobertRose 100%
èHD46WADDELL(D) SD -1,093 85.0
BrendenJones 100%TimBenton 100%Thomas(Tom)HowellJr 100%
HD81R.BROWN(R) SR 663 80.0
LarryW.Poasþ 52.3%SharonPhillipsPearce 20.0%TylerLohrForrest 27.7%
HD100COTHAM(D) SD 1,692 59.3
BillyMaddalon 46.7%JohnAutryþ 53.3%
HD104BISHOP(R) SR 1,417 85.0
AndyDulin 100%PeterNoris 100%
HD105SCHAFFER(R) SR 12,855 85.0
ScoaStoneþ 52.2%TimMorgan 47.8%ConnieGreen-Johnson 100%
OPENSEATRACES–NCHOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
HD113WHITMIRE(R) SR 757 90.0
CodyHensonþ 64.7%
CotyJamesFerguson 35.3%
MaureenMahanCopelof 100%
HD120WEST(R) SR -573 95.0
EllioXJ.Southworth 26.1%
KevinCorbinþ 73.9%
*HD9B.BROWN(R) LR 3,747 90.0
BrianFarkasþ 61.8%WalterE.Gaskins 38.2%GregMurphy* 100%
*HD91H’WAY(R) SR 1,050 85.8
Ira(Bubba)Tilley 25.6%
KyleHall*þ 43.8%
RobertKnight 30.6%
EugeneRussell 100%
2016 Election – Outcome Overview SR LR COMP LD SD
NC House 74 – 45 – 1 59 14
12R 2D 8
3R 4D 1U 2 37
Winners 28R 2R 1D 29D
INC GEN 23R 9R 2D 6 3R 3D
2D 8D
NC Senate 34 – 16 24 6 4R 0 16
Winners 9R 2R 4D INC GEN 9R 4R 4R 11D
2016 Election: Likely Partisan Outcome Current Partisan
Count Strong REP
Lean REP COMP
Lean DEM
Strong DEM
NC House 74 – 45 – 1 59 14 8
3R 4D 1U 2 37
NC House Jan 2017
71 PROB
2 LIKELY
4 TOSS UP
4 LIKELY
39 PROB
NC Senate 34 – 16 24 6 4
4 GOP 0 16
NC Senate Jan 2017
26 PROB
7 LIKELY
1 TOSS UP
0 LIKELY
16 PROB
@NCFEF
Statewide Executive Branch G
OV Roy Cooper – 68.8%
Ken Spaulding – 32.2%
Pat McCrory – 81.8% Robert Brawley – 10.6% Charles K. Moss – 7.7%
Lon Cecil
LT G
OV
Linda Coleman – 51.1% Holly Jones – 28.8%
Robert E. Wilson – 10.5% Ronald Newton – 9.6%
Dan Forest JJ Summerell
AG
OP
EN
Josh Stein –53.5% Marcus Williams – 46.5%
Buck Newton – 54.9% Jim O’Neill – 45.1%
INS
Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey – 41.2%
Joe McLaughlin – 32.9% Ron Pierce – 25.9%
Statewide Executive Branch A
UD
Beth Wood Chuck Stuber
SO
S
Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia – 61.6%
A.J. Daoud – 38.4%
LAB
Charles Meeker – 56.6% Mazie Ferguson – 43.4% Cherie Berry
AG
R
Walter Smith Steve Troxler – 68.8% Andy Steven – 31.2%
SP
I June Atkinson – 79.8% Henry Pankey – 20.2%
Mark Johnson – 53.4% Rosemary Stein – 32.8% J. Wesley Sills – 13.8%
ST
OP
EN
Dan Blue III – 58.5% Ron Ellmer – 41.5% Dale Folwell
Statewide Executive Branch G
OV
Roy Cooper (68.8%) Pat McCrory
(81.8%) Lon Cecil
LT G
OV
Linda Coleman (51.1%) Dan Forest JJ Summerell
AG
O
PE
N
Josh Stein (53.5%) Buck Newton (54.9%)
INS
Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey (41.2%)
AU
D
Beth Wood Chuck Stuber
SO
S
Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia (61.6%)
LAB
Charles Meeker (56.6%) Cherie Berry
AG
R
Walter Smith Steve Troxler (68.8%)
SP
I
June Atkinson (79.8%) Mark Johnson (53.4%)
ST
O
PE
N
Dan Blue III (58.5%) Dale Folwell
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
Cooper Victory
Strong US Senate
Candidate
DEM Prez Candidate Fights for
NC Suburbs = Domestic
Issues
McCrory
Victory
Voters Positive on
NC Economy
Parity in Outside $
No GOP Fracture over Prez
@NCFEF
2012: 50.6% 48.8% 1.0%
2016 Election: State Supreme Court
Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds
(Guilford)
@NCFEF
Linda H. Stephens - D 1st Term (Wake)
Phil Berger, Jr. Orange - REP
Bob Hunter - R 1st Term [2014] (Guilford)
Abe Jones
Wake – DEM
Richard Dietz - R 1st Term (Forsyth)
Vince Rozier Wake – DEM
Valerie Zachary - R 1st Term [2015] (Yadkin)
Rickye McKoy-Mitchell Mecklenburg – DEM
2016 Election: Court of Appeals
@NCFEF
What to watch?
þ How GOP nomination process plays out
¥ Impact on ‘enthusiasm gap’
þ If Trump is the GOP nominee, how does that impact NC’s GOP candidates
¥ May put NC (more) in play
þ Significance of GOP infighting
¥ Within GOP House Caucus, within GOP HQ
What to watch?
þ Does US Senate race become a target
¥ Don’t think so, except that NC = purple
þ Will resources matter most in Legislative races
¥ Yes
þ Will a strong GOP slate for Council of State help up-ballot candidates?
¥ Couldn’t hurt
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe Stewart Executive Director
[email protected] (919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF