Democratic Peace Theory & The Unintended Consequences of Intervention

Greg Kleponis 18 January 2013 New York College, Athens, Greece

Introduction

• What is Democratic Peace Theory? – Who are it’s proponents?

• Neo-Cons

• Liberal Theorists

• Be Careful what you wish for? (Hamas Palestine, Arab Spring)

• Blending National Security with International Theory – The so called “Bush Doctrine” interpretation of DPC

– Invasion of Afghanistan- a quick history 911 & beyond

– Challenges in establishing democracy in states with little or no democratic tradition or culture

– When does the kinetic (war) piece stop and nation building begin?

– Really What is Sovereignty?- when do we hand back control?

Fighting a War While Building a Nation “Don’t dig wells for others or you may fall into one yourself”

Afghan Proverb

• “Trying to build an airplane while you are flying it”

• The competition of polities, peoples and interests during the Rule –Set / Re-Set

• Interveners Tasks/Challenges: • Forming a national government and developing policies that

“travel” – Democracy – Parliamentary? Presidential ?

• Re-balancing ethnicities- addressing past grievances

• Delivery of social services and government goods while nascent government is forming

– Establishing credibility of government in individual lives • Cuts across all aspects of society and disciplines

• Requires thoughtful & balance program delivery

What Comes After “Success?”

Cross Cultural Competency & Having the “Right People” on the Job

• Cross cultural competency

• Afghanistan efforts essentially led by the US Army – Not the right people

– Didn’t possess the right skill sets

– Lack of understanding of the people, culture and capabilities

– Program design and delivery often not a fit with culture

Establishing Security Services (Army & Police) What to do with legacy systems and personnel? What type of police systems? Centralized, decentralized ? How to educate rule of law, integrity and human rights? Balancing authorities – roles and tasks?

Establishing Justice Systems that comport with local culture Central judicial system capacities? Acceptance by locals?

Developing economic programs & policies Macro & Micro business investment and development Private Property

15th Article of TE Lawrence

“Do not try to do too much with your own hands. Better the Arabs do it tolerably than that you do it perfectly. It is their war, and you are to help them, not to win it for them. Actually, also, under the very odd conditions of Arabia, your practical work will not be as good as, perhaps, you think it is.”

The Problems with “Forced Democracy”

• Le Monde Cartoon – “Repeat After Me”

• International support for Iraq/Afghanistan

• Conflictual Political system in Conflictual cultures

• Are there pre-conditions for democracy or can they be created from within society

– Challenges in doing so

– Education, time, developing a civil culture

– Capacity of the intervener

– Will of the people themselves

Local Leaders

• Local Leadership partners – are they on the same sheet of music?

Unintended Outcomes

• Iraq- is it better off now – Is it the country that the Coalition envisioned?

• Afghanistan- Taliban kicked out but have come back and will play a role

• Al Queda really gone?

• Is it a democracy?

• Will it remain a democracy?

• The role of Iran in both countries

Dr. Najibullah

Summary

• Interventions are long, costly, complicated and outcomes are uncertain

• Emerging democracies unstable & unpredictable

• Law of unintended consequences at work at all time.

• Capacities , both resources and talent must be enormous

• Thoughtful approaches to program development

• Be prepared for the 70% solution – “Afghan Good Enough”

• Should intervention policies be pursued – What Goals?

– When?

• “We came to change this country and really what it did was change us.”