Exploring cynefin transitions v14

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Exploring Transitions in the Complex Domain

Expanding upon the Cynefin Knowledge Framework

@tonyjoyce

Working draft v14

@tonyjoyce 2

This is the

starting place

for my search

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http://www.cognitive-edge.com/blogs/dave/2011/10/a_typology_of_foresight.php

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From my blog post on the Transitory Zone

Easy

U

nkn

ow

n

Imp

oss

ible

Unexpected Plausible Deliberate

bluffing, bogey

diplomacy, soft power, integrative

negotiation

brinksmanship, chicken

coercion, demands

seize opportunity, early adopters

neglect, avoidance,

laggards

collusion, Luddites

follow the crowd,

mainstream

Awareness of dynamic

Ability to manage constraint

Complex domain

Inauthentic disorder 12/9/2014 @tonyjoyce 3

Easy (Ability to Manage)

Working Across the Transition Zone (shifted 45° to emphasize the baseline)

Disorder Ambiguity Complexity

Unknown (Unaware, Hidden)

Plausible (Mainstream)

Deliberate (Awareness of

dynamic)

Plausible (Integrative)

Unknown (Aware,

Crisis)

Higher Constraints

Lower Constraints

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About Collaboration

• Collaboration is a dispositional coherence – Intentional coherence is the vector into the complex

domain (from higher & lower constraints and ambiguity) – In retrospective coherence either the cause (intentioned)

or disposition (outcome) might be found – Retrospective coherence can be from ambiguous

(intentioned) or random (outcomes) actions

• Collaboration as shown is – Alignment of Easy-plausible and Impossible-plausible

(center vertical in slide 3) – Recognizable by strange bedfellows and enemy-of-my-

enemy narratives


Remapping into different visual

Easy

7 6 5

Un

kno

wn

8 9 4

Imp

oss

ible

1 2 3

Unexpected

Plausible Deliberate

Awareness of dynamic

Ability to manage constraint

Complex domain

Inauthentic disorder

8 6

2 4

9

7

3

1 5


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The Transitory Zone

Able to Manage (Being Social &

Engaging)

Deliberate (Dynamic awareness, incremental steps)

Death & Rebirth

(Disorder)

Managed Innovation

(Complexity)

Un

exp

ect

ed

Im

po

ssib

le

Ea

sy

De

lib

era

te

Unexpected Easy

Impossible Deliberate Plausible Unknown

Plausible Unknown

Ambiguous


Adding Boundary Cases

• Ritual dissent as a crowdsourcing process – Process = a partially constrained system pattern – RD moves from critiques to a collection of stories

• Recipes as formulaic processes – Intentional coherence, when diligently followed – Understanding what was produced is usually by

retrospective coherence – Convergence is often premature; this may statistically

favor dispositional coherence – This is basic to “Abduction in the Pareto World” – also see Dave’s many comments on Sick stigma


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Cynefin Orientation of Boundary Cases

Disorder

Social Engagement (Exploit)

(Praxis) Probe & Respond

Easy & Recipe

Critique

Complexity Complexity

Limits of cohesion

Limits of agreement


Expanded Transition Zones

Disorder

(Social Engagement) Exploit

Probes (Gamble, Practice)

Easy Recipe

Critique

Complexity

Casual, Purposeful

Dispositional, Observed

Dispositional, Observed

Casual, Purposeful

Plausible

Unknown

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Explanation of Constraints

• The opposite of the exploit is the gamble

– This is constraints as either/or

– Aka constraint-based thinking

– Shown as higher and lower loops in slide 4

• To accept ambiguity is a different case

– This is the middle way to either/and

– It leads in a different direction than above

– It may be a dive through disorder (revealed later)

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Reorientation in the Transitory Zone

Ambiguous

Being Social & Connecting

Deliberate

Death & Rebirth

(Disorder)

Managed Innovation

(Complexity)

Un

exp

ect

ed

Im

po

ssib

le

Ea

sy

De

lib

era

te

Unexpected Easy

Impossible Deliberate Plausible Unknown

Plausible Unknown

Ret

rosp

ecti

ve C

oh

eren

ce

Inau

then

tic

or

Can

’t a

void

it

Exploit

Gamble

Unknowable

Emergent

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Orientation to the Cynefin Framework

Disorder

(Social Engagement) Exploit

(Praxis) Probe & Respond

Critique

Easy & Recipe

Disorder

Complexity

Complicated

Chaotic

Cynefin

Complexity

Plausible == Exploit

Probe == Gamble

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Orientation in a Knowledge Space

• Exploit is complicated (requires ordered space vice unordered)

• Gamble is chaotic (random, pseudo random, fractals)

• An example of how knowledge may be created

• A brief reflection on my KMWorld 2012 talk – It was an examination of Typology vrs Taxonomy

– and Boisoit’s i-Space

– Feedback on my talk, it was “too theoretical”

• It concluded with a philosophical idea of belief and knowledge correlating with Cynefin domains

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Knowledge Formation

Easy Recipe

Critique

Casual

Dispositional

Dispositional

Casual

Plausible

Emergent

Reflection barrier

Reflection Barrier is Path

Dependency

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@tonyjoyce 16

Concept in my KMWorld 2012 paper

Knowledge (fantasy = too loosely coupled)

Disordered (too many

constraints)

Simple (too few

constraints) Chaoti

c

Com

plicate

d

Complex

Belief (biased = too highly coupled)

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Five Realms of Knowledge

Complex Fuzzy Philosophy

Emergent

Ordered

Inspired by Escher

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Tolerating Ambiguity

• Tolerance of ambiguity leads to 2 new domains

• First, emergence near the limit of cohesion – Bricolage (see

http://www.yiannisgabriel.com/2012/08/on-paragrammes-theory-of-organizations.html?q=bricolage)

– Abduction in Pareto World

• A new layered framework is presented as strata of Ordered, Uncertain and Emergent – Does this layering illuminate the ABIDE criteria?

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Chaotic Affirmative Emergent

Expanding on the Cynefin Framework

Disorder Ambiguous Complex

Unknown Simple Complicated

Fuzzy set

Ordered set

Uncertain

set

Emergent set 12/9/2014 @tonyjoyce 19

Within Emergence

• We also have a different domain that originates near ritual dissent, an affirmation of each other

– A new “way of talking”

– Found in the study of hermeneutics

– Also in informatics of classification; see Bowker & Starr’s “Classification and its Consequences”

• Note, the Fuzzy set – chaotic, disorder and unknown – remains indeterminate until history (retrospective) is apparent

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A Dynamic Knowledge Framework

Unknown

Disorder

Chaotic Affirmative

Ambiguous

Simple Complicated

Complex

Emergent

Cynefin

hook or

catastrophic

fold

(Act/prob

e/react)

act-sense-

respond

Ordered

set

Transitory

submodel

Under

Tension

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Anticipation (appreciative awareness)

Chaotic Affirmative Emergent

The Expanded Cynefin Contexts

Disorder Ambiguous Complex

Unknown Simple Complicated

Easy (able to manage)

Deliberate (awareness of dynamic)

Exploit

Gamble

Intentioned coherence

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Emergence is a Realm of Tension

• A Tension that is intractable – It is the distance across the catastrophic fold – Released in spurts of innovation and paradigm shifts

• It is a permanent feature of social activity because networks are constantly changing

• The change has intensified with modern technology and it is now more visible through this expanded Cynefin framework

• Can be visualized in terms of KM metaphors using C Kurtz’s dimensional form of Cynefin (“eyes”)

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“Three Strands in a Braid: Identity Interaction in Social Software” – Cynthia Kurtz

Catastrophic fold

Emergence (committing + realizing)

Probe-Sense-Respond

Affirmation (selecting + relating)

Act-Sense-Respond

Network

Building

Network

Pruning

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Conclusions

• Collaboration is a form of dispositional coherence

• Bricolage is a distinct form of dispositional coherence

• Affirmation, i.e. the generative aspect of appreciative inquiry, is dispositional coherence

• As we can see in the Dynamic Knowledge Framework, emergence is different from the intentional complexity of Alice Juarreo’s “Dynamics in Action; Intentional Behavior as a Complex System”

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Future Work

• Articulation of a learning practices boundary case

– Kolb’s reflective learning cycle

– Note this is social constructionism

– It need not be grounded to “reality”

• A model of decisions

– (Needs explanation)

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How is knowledge formed?

Unknown

Disorder

Chaotic Affirmative

Ambiguous

Simple Complicated

Complex

Emergent

Kolb learning

loop

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Tony Joyce

Government & Nonprofit

Exploring cynefin transitions v14