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The confluence of three ‘rivers’
Population Growth Urbanization/Density
Suburbs = Battleground
Nationalization of Voter Attitudes/Dispositions
and Impact of Outside Money
Rise of the Millennials and a Very Different
Political Outlook
House +% 4.1% SR -‐0.7% House -‐% -‐3.8% LR 0.9%
House D-‐held 0.5% COMP 4.1% House R-‐held -‐0.01% LD 1.3% House U-‐held 2.0% SD 0.3%
Senate +% 3.4% SR -‐0.6% Senate -‐% -‐3.1% LR 3.1%
Senate D-‐held 0.02% COMP -‐1.8% Senate R-‐held 0.3% LD NA Senate U-‐held NA SD -‐0.6%
Average +/- changes
NC Sena
te
District Incumbent Party +/-‐ % IDEAL CVB
8 Bill Rabon REP 8.6% LR 17 Tamara Barringer REP 8.6% LR 44 David CurTs REP 7.3% SR 16 Josh Stein DEM 7.0% SD 9 Michael Lee REP 6.2% LR 3 Erica Smith-‐Ingram DEM -‐9.2% SD 5 Don Davis DEM -‐7.2% SD 4 Angela Bryant DEM -‐4.9% SD 46 Warren Daniel REP -‐4.9% SR 47 Ralph Hise REP -‐4.7% SR
Top 5 +/- NC Senate Districts
NC Ho
use
District Incumbent Party +/-‐ % IDEAL CVB
41 Gale Adcock DEM 14.8% COMP 37 Paul Stam REP 12.1% SR 26 Leo Daughtry REP 10.7% SR 38 Yvonne Lewis Holley DEM 9.3% SD 92 Charles Jeter REP 9.1% COMP 7 Bobbie Richardson DEM -‐9.7% SD 27 Michael Wray DEM -‐8.7% SD 55 Mark Brody REP -‐8.3% SR 94 Jeffrey Elmore REP -‐7.6% SR 63 Steve Ross REP -‐7.4% LR
Top 5 +/- NC House Districts
Wake Delega;on H11 Duane Hall DEM 5.3% SD H33 Rosa Gill DEM 7.2% SD H34 Grier MarTn DEM 2.0% SD H35 Chris Malone REP 7.8% LR H36 Nelson Dollar REP 6.3% LR H37 Paul Stam REP 12.1% SR H38 Yvonne Lewis Holley DEM 9.3% SD H39 Darren Jackson DEM 6.2% SD H40 Marilyn Avila REP 5.2% LR H41 Gale Adcock DEM 14.8% COMP H49 Gary Pendleton REP 1.9% COMP
Mecklenburg Delega;on H88 Rob Bryan REP -‐6.6% SR H92 Charles Jeter REP 9.1% COMP H98 John Bradford REP 6.5% SR H99 Rodney Moore DEM 1.9% SD H100 Tricia Cotham DEM -‐2.9% SD H101 Beverly Earle DEM 3.8% SD H102 Becky Carney DEM -‐2.2% SD H103 William Brawley REP -‐1.5% SR H104 Dan Bishop REP -‐6.0% SR H105 Jacqueline Schaffer REP 4.5% SR H106 Carla Cunningham DEM -‐0.3% SD H107 Kelly Alexander DEM 2.3% SD
Wake and Mecklenburg Delegations
S14 Dan Blue DEM 3.5% SD S15 John Alexander Jr REP 1.1% LR S16 Josh Stein DEM 7.0% SD S17 Tamara Barringer REP 8.6% LR S18 Chad Barefoot REP 2.7% COMP
S37 Jeff Jackson DEM -‐0.7% SD S38 Joel Ford DEM 2.2% SD S39 Bob Rucho REP -‐2.4% SR S40 Joyce Waddell DEM 0.7% SD S41 Jeff Tarte REP 3.8% SR
District Incumbent Party Home County +/-‐ % IDEAL CVB
2 Larry Yarborough REP Person 2.3% COMP 8 Susan MarTn REP Wilson 6.1% COMP 22 William D. Brisson DEM Bladen 1.6% COMP 41 Gale Adcock DEM Wake 14.8% COMP 45 John Szoka REP Cumberland 5.2% COMP 49 Gary Pendleton REP Wake 1.9% COMP 92 Charles Jeter REP Mecklenburg 9.1% COMP 115 John Ager DEM Buncombe 1.3% COMP 119 Joe Sam Queen DEM Haywood -‐5.7% COMP
NC House – CVB = COMP or LEAN
District Incumbent Party Home County +/-‐ % IDEAL CVB 44 Rick Glazier DEM Cumberland -‐2.1% LD 46 Ken Waddell DEM Columbus 1.8% LD 54 Robert Reives DEM Lee 1.8% LD 66 Ken Goodman DEM Richmond 3.7% LD 1 Bob Steinburg REP Chowan 2.3% LR 6 Paul Tine UNA Dare 2.0% LR 9 Brian Brown REP Pid 5.9% LR 35 Chris Malone REP Wake 7.8% LR 36 Nelson Dollar REP Wake 6.3% LR 40 Marilyn Avila REP Wake 5.2% LR 51 Brad Salmon DEM Harned -‐2.2% LR 53 David Lewis REP Harned 5.3% LR 63 Steve Ross REP Alamance -‐7.4% LR 65 Bert Jones REP Rockingham -‐2.1% LR 93 Jonathan Jordan REP Ashe -‐3.1% LR 116 Brian Turner DEM Buncombe -‐2.5% LR 118 Michele Presnell REP Yancey -‐6.5% LR
NC House – CVB = COMP or LEAN
District Incumbent Party Home County +/-‐ % IDEAL CVB 1 Bill Cook REP Beaufort -‐3.9% COMP 18 Chad Barefoot REP Wake 2.7% COMP 19 Wesley Meredith REP Cumberland -‐4.2% COMP 8 Bill Rabon REP Brunswick 8.6% LR 9 Michael Lee REP New Hanover 6.2% LR 10 Brent Jackson REP Sampson 0.8% LR 11 Buck Newton REP Wilson -‐0.7% LR 12 Ronald Rabin REP Harned 1.8% LR 15 John Alexander Jr REP Wake 1.1% LR 17 Tamara Barringer REP Wake 8.6% LR 25 Tom McInnis REP Richmond 0.5% LR 27 Trudy Wade REP Guilford 0.5% LR
NC Senate – CVB = COMP or LEAN
