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North Carolina Demographic Change &
Implications for 2020NCFEF Thinkers Luncheon
February 9, 2015
Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina
5.1 millionin 1970
>10 millionin 2015
10.6M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pop
(Mill
ions
)
Officially 9th most populous state
as of 2014
Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM
North Carolina Population, 1970-2020
13 Counties with Half of NC Population, 2013
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
42% of future growthwill be in Wake or Mecklenburg
Source: NC OSBM
Image Source: Wayne Hsieh; Data Source: NC OSBM
1 in 3 countieswill lose population
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Data Source: 2013 ACS
Estimated Deviation from Ideal District Size (US House), 2013
Data Source: Carolina Demography
Estimated Deviation from Ideal District Size (NC Senate), 2013
Data Source: Carolina Demography
Estimated Deviation from Ideal District Size (NC House), 2013
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
Year
Components of Population Change, NC, 1981-2012
Natural IncreaseNet Migration
2.2 million net migrants since 1990
Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
<1 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100+
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
Age
Projected NC Population by Age, 2020
Millennials (1982-2004)3.2 million or
31% of the population
Baby Boomers (1946-1964)2.3 million or
20% of the population
Source: NC OSBM, 2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
<1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 89
Num
ber
of
Peop
le
Age
NC Hispanic Population by Age & Citizenship, 2012<18 Citizen <18 Non-Citizen Voting Eligible 18+ Non-Citizen
Source: 2012 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
