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Guidelines for Drought Management Plans &
National Consultation dialogues
Activity 2.1 & 2.2
Elena Fatulova 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014
Partners & Outputs
• Aim of Act. 2.1 – to develop Guidelines for Drought Management Plans (DMPs) – the main instrument for implementation of drought policy based on risk management
• 10 CEE countries involved in the activity (BL, CZ, HU, LT, MO, PL, RO, SK, SLO, UA)
• Partners – national GWPs and experts from individual countries
• Final output – Guidelines for DMPs including examples of its application within the region (e.g. Slovak Study report)
• First phase: First draft presented – Hodrusa Hamre Execution of the Slovak case study Development of the Slovak Study Report – March 2014
– completed in accordance with the plan Draft of the Guidelines for DMPs – June 2014
• Second phase: 1 July 2014 - draft of the Guidelines sent for completion
and comments to the involved countries 31 December 2014 – national examples and comments
provided April 2015 – final output – Guidelines for DMPs
Progress Report
Approach - principles
• Conformity with EU drought policy developed within Common Strategy for Implementation of Water Framework Directive – based on drought risk management approach
• Consistency with EU WFD – Drought Management Plan a part of River Basin Management plans
• Focus on the national level
• Harmonization of approaches within the CEE region
Basic documents
General guidelines:
• Drought Management Plan Report Including Agricultural, Drought Indicators and Climate Change (Report 2007)
• Guidelines for National Drought management Policies and Preparedness Plans (Donald A.Wilhite) for the WMO/GWP IDMP
EU policy document:
• A Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources” COM (2012) 673 final
Output, sources Output (Guidelines content): - Description of the generalized procedure for development
of the DMPs based on harmonized approach - Accompanied with the national examples of the key DMP
elements (indicators, thresholds, warning system, organizational structure) in line with EU drought policy
Sources: • Slovak Study report • National experiences – examples of the chosen elements
provided by involved countries during the second phase • Outputs from other activities of the IDM Programme
DMP – main elements
• Indicators and thresholds establishing onset, ending, and severity levels of the exceptional circumstances (prolonged drought) – meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic (impact indicators)
• Measures to be taken in each drought phase in order to prevent deterioration of water status and to mitigate negative drought effects
• Organizational framework to deal with drought and subsequent revision and updating of the existing drought management plan
Slovak case study
• Evaluation of the drought event 2011-2012
• Real data from monitoring used
• Partners from water sector and agricultural sector (experts)
• Data from drought impact assessment (e.g. fish mortality, ecological status, wetlands) are missing (information from the Ministry)
• Some stakeholders refused to provide data (e.g. energy production company)
Slovak Study Report
Indicators: Precipitation and air temperature River flow Groundwater level and spring-discharge Soil water balance Thresholds for drought classification: Normal status Pre-alert status Alert status Emergency status
Thresholds - Precipitation
Thresholds - River flow
1. quantile (120 to 80 % of Qmes61-2000 - normal status of water bearing)
2. quantile (80 to 40 % of Qmes61-2000 – subnormal status of water bearing)
3. quantile (less than 40 % of Qmes61-2000- critical value of water bearing status
Thresholds – groundwater level
• Fig. 2 Groundwater monitoring point No. 10, hydrological year 2012
Thresholds – soil water balance
Drought degree Extreme
drought
Severe drought Moderate
drought
Normal drought
Probability interval
[%] ≤ 2% 2.1% to 10% 10.1% to 25% 25.1% to 50%
ASWI interval [–] ≤ –1.8 –1.8 to –1.151 –1.15 to –0.721 -0.72 to 0
Drought degree Extreme
drought
Very severe
drought
Severe drought Normal drought
Probability interval
[%] ≤ 2% 2% to 10% 10.1% to 25% 25.1% to 50%
ASWICUM interval
[–] ≤ –300 –299 to –200 –199 to –100 -99 to 0
Available soil water index
Cumulative available soil water index
Slovak Study Report
Measures:
• organizational – all drought status
• operational – pre-alert, alert, emergency status
• preventive – normal status
- measures for improvement of water governance
- measures focused on increasing of resistance against drought and mitigation of drought adverse impacts
- action plan for science and research drought program
DMP – organizational structure
Uncertainties, gaps
• Drought is not considered as a relevant issue
• No state body has been officially charged with the production of the Drought management plan within the second planning cycle of preparation of RBMPs
• Absence of drought impact indicators
• Monitoring system is not sufficient for running of reliable drought early warning system and has to be upgraded
• Thresholds and early warning system have not been tested
Act. 2.2 National consultation dialogues
First National Consultation dialogues:
• 6 countries (CZ, HU, LT, MO,SK, UA – in 2013
• 4 countries (PO, RO, SLO, BL) – in 2014
General objective - development of DMP:
• To gather the drought experts and representatives from competent authorities
• To inform about the objectives of IDMP
• To discuss the answers from the Questionnaire
Act. 2.2 National consultations Second National Consultation dialogues – in 2014:
General objective – provide input for the Guidelines for Drought management plans:
- Organizational framework – draft of drought working group (schematic) and its mandate
- Early warning system – short information on indicators and thresholds, drought stages
- Impact assessment – impact information system
- Creation of drought hazard and Water Scarcity Risk maps
Plans - continuation • To develop the first draft of the Guidelines – activity leader – 30 June 2014 on the base:
- Slovak study report
- Results of demonstration projects
- Communication with GWPs partners – comments to Guidelines contents, answers on specific questions – terminology, early warning system (daily base?)
• To send the draft of the Guidelines to the involved partners (GWPs) for comments and providing national experiences for the chosen DMP elements – 1 July 2014
Plans - continuation • To organize National Consultation dialogues (after June
2014) with the aim to discus the draft of the Guidelines and provide national experiences in line with EU strategy: to develop of organizational structure for drought
management (all partners and sector identified in the questionnaire) – competent authority, working group (example provided in Slovak Study Report)
to provide national examples of development of the key elements of DMP – Annex of the Guidelines
• New template for NCD will be prepared – end of June • To provide comments and input for Guidelines – 31
December 2014
•
Questions
• How could be defined meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, socioeconomic drought referring to working definition: „Drought is a natural phenomenon. It is a temporary, negative and severe deviation along a significant time period and over a large region from average precipitation values (a rainfall deficit), which might lead to meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic drought, depending on its severity and duration“
• How often should be assessment of indicators for early warnings updated - daily, weekly?
Contact: Elena Fatulova, GWP Slovakia [email protected]
Thank you for your attention