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Retrofit aggregation What can Canada learn from the Netherlands?
Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze
Senior Advisor, Pembina Institute
May 31, 2017
@tompierrefs
2
Leading Canada’s transition to clean energy The Pembina Institute is a non-profit think-tank that advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada's clean-energy transition.
Referencecase
CLP+Fed.Carbonprice
-33%2020
-30%from2005,basedonfederaltarget
-80%2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ann
uale
mission
sinM
tCO2e
(+ forestry credits)
B.C. emissions
CIMS modeling by Navius
Emissions from B.C. buildings
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GH
G e
mis
sion
s fr
om b
uild
ings
(M
t)
Business as usual
Net-zero ready policy
Net-zero ready policy +
Retrofit strategy
40%-50% 2030
80%-100% 2050
Targets:
3% retrofit rate electrify 1 out of 2
25% GHG reduction in rest
BUSINESS
CASE
$
$
$
$
SIMPLIFIED ACCESS
RETROFITS AT
SCALE
• Carbon pricing• Retrofit codes • Public financing
CONSUMER
AWARENESS
• Electrification strategyDEEP
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
• Demand aggregation
• Innovative financing mechanisms
• Integrated delivery
• Energy disclosure • Valuation of non-energy
benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY
Conditions for success
6
QUALITY Long-year warranty energy performance house
NON-INTRUSIVE Refurbishment within one week
AFFORDABLE Financeable from energy cost savings
IMPROVE LOOK & FEEL Make the neighbours jealous
Slide:Energiesprong
DEAL: 111,000 NET ZERO ENERGY REFURBISHMENTS
housing associations construction companies
Slide:Energiesprong
29
Three Prototypical San Francisco Building Types
Prototypes selected represent majority of the affordable housing market
Category:5-9 unit buildings Market Share: 8.9% (~6.2K units)
6 Unit Prototype • Built pre-1980s • 4,725 sqft • 3 stories • Row home • Furnace, no cooling* • Individual gas HW heater
Category: 10-19 unit buildings Market Share: 22.5% (~16K units) 15 Unit Prototype • Built pre-1980s • 11,270 sqft • 3 stories • Stand alone building • Furnace, no cooling* • Central gas HW heater
Category: 20+ unit building Market Share: 66.2% (~46K units)
65 Unit Prototype • Built pre-1980s • 40,900 sqft • 5 stories • Stand alone building • Central boiler, no cooling* Central
gas HW heater
Major Takeaways: • Majority of buildings (~65%) were constructed prior to 1980 and likely have gas furnace heating • Majority of affordable housing buildings are three stories or less
*58% of San Francisco homes use NG, 36% electricity according to a ACEEE 2017 report Slide: RMI
30
Results Summary
For the 6 and 15 unit prototype there are many paths to net zero. For the 65 unit prototype you can reach net zero, but costs will need to be reduced.
Slide: RMI
Social housing stock in B.C.
33
1,2206,148
24,060
3,48211,763
363
12,832
5,666
4,277
#ofunits
HighRise-BCHousing
Apartment-BCHousing
Apartment-NPHA
Townhouse-BCHousing
Townhouse-NPHA
Duplex,SingleFamilyHouse-BCHousingDuplex,SingleFamilyHouse-NPHAOther-BCHousing
Other-NPHA
Apartment
Townhouse
SFD-Duplexes
Other
Data: BC Housing, BC-NPHA
Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze [email protected]
@tompierrefs
pembina.org Subscribe – our perspectives to your inbox.
twitter.com/pembina
facebook.com/pembina.institute
Building stock evolution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Build
ing
Floo
r A
rea
(mill
ion
m2)
Pre-2000 construction
2000-2010 construction
Net-zero energy ready
1/3
2/3 1/2
1/2 TODAY
BUSINESS
CASE
$
$
$
$
SIMPLIFIED ACCESS
RETROFITS AT
SCALE
• Carbon pricing• Retrofit codes • Public financing
CONSUMER
AWARENESS
• Electrification strategyDEEP
EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS
• Demand aggregation
• Innovative financing mechanisms
• Integrated delivery
• Energy disclosure • Valuation of non-energy
benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY
Strategies
36