1

Delhi story

Anumita Roychowdhury

Centre for Science and Environment

Session: Transport and Air Pollution Stories from Five Global Cities

Conference‘’Connect Karo Conference‘’

WRI - IndiaNew Delhi April 5-7, 2016

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Should we Leave Delhi?

First generation action....

Late nineties-- Concern over health propelled first generation action

-- One death per hour due to air pollution related diseases in Delhi

-- Public opinion pushed first phase of action

5

First phase of action……….

First generation action - until 2003Vehicles: Euro II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule, (Euro III in 2005); unleaded petrol

Largest ever public transport fleet – bus, taxis and three-wheeler on natural gas

Controlled benzene content in petrol

Pre-mix petrol for two- and three-wheelers

Phased out 15 year old commercial vehicles; Capped the number of three-wheelers

Strengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC)

Efforts made to bypass transit traffic

Industry -- Relocated polluting industry;

Power plants: Action on power plants; All except one on natural gas

Ban on open burning – but poorly enforced

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CNG Bus Emissions in 2004

0.32

0.009 0.0070

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Bharat stage II DieselBus (500ppm max.

sulfur)

Bharat stage II DieselBus +CRT (50ppm

max. sulfur)

Bharat statge II CNGBus + 3 way catalyst

PM

em

issi

ons

from

bus

es in

gra

mm

es p

er k

ilom

etre

CNG was the first generation leapfrog strategy in Delhi

Source: Teri

Even climate benefit……

729.74Euro II CNG bus +three way catalytic converter

781.38Euro II diesel bus on 50 ppm sulphur fuel + CRT

766.1 Euro II diesel bus on 350 ppm sulphur fuel + DOC

798.7Euro II diesel bus on 500 ppm sulphur fuel + DOC

CO2g/km

Type of bus

Evidence on tailpipe CO2 emissions from India

-- -- Climate mitigation has not been the primary driver of NGV programme. -- But GHG reduction potential is drawing attention now -- Globally, on well to wheel basis 25% average reduction in CO2 (e) compared to gasoline LDV is reported. In relation to diesel results are mixed and depends on type and level of technology. NGV can have lower fuel efficiency (IEA 2010)

Black carbon vs methane

New study shows that in comparison with the warming potential of New study shows that in comparison with the warming potential of black carbon emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has been black carbon emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has been less warming…..less warming…..

-- When black carbon from diesel is not considered estimated CO2 -- When black carbon from diesel is not considered estimated CO2 (e) increase due to switch(e) increase due to switch

-- When black carbon is taken into account -- switch is carbon neutral -- When black carbon is taken into account -- switch is carbon neutral Upto 30% reduction in CO2 (e)Upto 30% reduction in CO2 (e)

Source: Conor Reynolds and M Kandlikar, British Columbia 2008

Benefits from new generation CNG buses

CSIR-IIP-University of Alberta study::-- Ultrafine particles from Euro IV Indian

diesel bus - 600 to 2000 times more than the Euro IV CNG bus.

-- CNG ultrafine emissions are less or close to Euro VI standards for particulate number.

-- Diesel bus emits 1000 times more ultrafine particle numbers than Euro VI limit on transient cycle.

-- CNG buses have performed much better on all parameters than the diesel bus – CO, NMHC, NOx, and are close to Euro VI norms

-- Diesel bus – CO is19 times higher, NMHC 47 times higher, and NOx 17 times higher than Euro VI emissions standards.

.

CO(gm/kwh)

NMHC(gm/kwh)

NOx(gm/kwh)

Total Particles

Diesel busAcceleration

7.87 7.58 8.42 6.45x1014

Cruise 2.68 - 7.14 4.46x1014

CNG bus

Acceleration

0.43 0.15 0.87 2.78x1011

Cruise 2.2 0.57 0.82 4.37x1011

Euro VI (WHSC) (WHTC)

1.50.40

0.130.16

0.40o.46

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After a short respite pollution curve turns upward

Based on CPCB dataBased on CPCB data

Particulate pollution decline and rise again due to rapid increase in vehicle numbers

NO2 levels rising steadily

Multi-pollutant crisis – ozone levels are also rising

Second generation challenge....

Deeper understanding of health outcomes

Fifth largest killer in India……

More than 18 million healthy life years lost due to air pollution. Air pollution triggers stroke, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer…..

Air pollution is the 5th largest killer in India…….

Health of children compromised……

2012 epidemiological study on children in Delhi (CPCB and Chittaranjan National Cancer Institute of Kolkata): -- Covered about 12,000 school-going children from 36 schools.

-- Every third child has reduced lung function. Sputum of Delhi’s children contains four times more iron-laden macrophages than those from cleaner environs, indicating pulmonary hemorrhage.

-- The levels of these biomarkers in children have been found to be higher in areas with high PM10 levels.

Sputum cytology of a 14-year old girl, showing abundance of particle laden AM

Alveolar macrophage: the biomarker of air pollution

Exposed group; Kolkata taxi driver

Increase in AM number

High level of bio markers in polluted parts of Delhi

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7 6 4 6 38

Effects studied

No.

of s

tudi

es

Respiratory Cardio Cancer Related Eye related

Cytogenetic Mortality Others

Source: CSE

Wide range of health symptoms

Not just respiratory symptoms …. Also cardiovascular, eye disorders, cellular changes, cancer, diabetes, blood pressure, effect on brain and foetus and premature deaths….

Toxic risk

The endpoint of the toxic risk is cancer

-- India: over 700,000 new cases and 300,000 people are set to die every year, (National Cancer Control Programme)

-- By 2026, more than 1.4 million people will be falling in the grip of the disease.

-- NCCP lists greater exposure to environmental carcinogens as an important reasons.

-- Mitigation strategy must reduce environmental risk from all factors – air pollution is an important risk factor

Hospitals in Delhi reporting significant increase in the number of lung cancer among non-smokers

Better understanding of where pollution is coming from?

Pollution profile of Delhi

Source: IIT Kanpur study for Delhi Government

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• Need exposure mapping across micro environment

Ambient air quality to integrated exposure

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Ambient air quality vs Exposure

Union Ministry of Health and Family WelfareReport of Steering committee on air pollution and health related Issues’,

More important to know how close we are to the pollution source, what are we inhaling, and how much time we spend close to the pollution source than what occurs generally in the air that is influenced by climate and weather.

Shift from concentration management to exposure management

Ambient concentrations do not always well represent human exposures,

Ambient concentration is not a good surrogate for total air pollution risk, -- cannot indicate exposure and health outcome

ChennaiPM2.5 emission apportionment

PM2.5 exposure apportionment

Source: S Guttikunda – SIM Air

In Delhi, the people’s exposure to vehicle exhaust is 3 to 4 times higher than the world average

Estimates from Apte, J. S., Bombrun, E., Marshall, J. D., & Nazaroff, W. W. (2012). Global Intraurban Intake Fractions for Primary Air Pollutants from Vehicles and Other Distributed Sources. Environmental Science and Technology, 46(6), 3415–3423.

Exposure (iF) is the population-weighted intake fraction, or the grams of vehicle pollution inhaled per grams of vehicle pollution emitted.

Change the practiceEstimate exposure

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People living close to roads are most exposed to vehicular fume

Health Effect Institute: Influence of vehicular pollution maximum upto 300-500 m from roadside. About 55% of Delhi’s population live within this influence zone.

-- University California Berkeley: The PM2.5 inside vehicles 1.5 times higher than the surrounding background air and ultra-fine levels about 8.5 times higher in Delhi.

-- The short-term peaks during travel in Delhi can go above 1000 microgramme per cum

2525

How much pollution we breathe in Delhi? Average exposure to PM2.5 ranged between 192 to 642 micrgramme per cum. Peaks as high as 457 to 1170. The average ambient level ranged between 191 to 277. 

Source: Based on CSE exposure monitoring and DPCC data for ambient levels

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New science: Some particulates are more harmful than others

Studies are assessing differentiated health risk according to source of particulates

A significant study by the same Health Effect Institute, Boston, published in Environmental Health Perspective recently:

Particles from coal and diesel are more harmful than wind blown dust.

These increase ischemic heart disease related deaths.

This is dangerous as global Burden of dieses for India attributes half of air pollution deaths to heart disease.

This must inform policy....

Second generation clean air action....

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Explosive motorisation

Need stringent and preventive action and decision here to influence the future stock -- several times higher than the legacy stock

Source: CSE

In lakh

The legacy stock in India is much smaller than the new vehicle stock yet to roll out

New motorisation must be based on best available technology and fuels

Restrain this growth

Mixed trends......

PM and Nox still correlate with motorization. Carbon monoxide and sulphur dioxide have decoupled from motorization trend

Motorisation and oil demand…..

Trend in fuel consumption by different modes of transport in India Transport energy demand grown at 1.2 times the GDP growth rate.

Fuel consumption by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level. (ADB).

Shift of freight from railways to trucks will also add to the energy stress: (Railway share less than 30%)

Source IEA

Technology roadmap……

32Source: India, Europe compiled from Diesel Net, USA data provided by Axel Friedrich, Germany

Emissions standards roadmap: An unfinished agenda

Diesel car PM norms in g/km

Note: Europe has additionally introduced particle number standards at Euro V levelFuture norms of US and Europe are tightening NOx norms for diesel more

The Supreme Court intervention since October 2015:

Takes regional approach – NCT Delhi to NCR Delhi

Focus on all pollution sources – vehicles, construction, trash burning, road dust

Special focus on toxic risk reduction from diesel vehicles– trucks, light commercial vehicles, taxis and diesel cars

Application of polluter pay principle

Focus on monitoring and compliance

Public transport: Infrastructure for buses and non-motorised transportDiscussion on restrain measures have started

Beginning of next phase of action

Supreme Court directives on diesel vehicles since October 2015:

-- Imposition and doubling of environment compensation charge on trucks – Rs 100 crore collected in 3 months

-- Entry of pre-2006 trucks banned

-- Non-destined trucks being diverted

-- All diesel taxis in NCR to be replaced by CNG

-- Luxury diesel cars banned to stop misuse of low tax policy

-- Asks for advancement of Euro VI emissions standards

Directives on diesel vehicles

Delhi Government programmes and budget: -- Odd and Even scheme-- Augmentation of bus numbers, infrastructure and

service-- Infrastructure for walking and cycling on PWD roads-- Elevated BRT-- Municipal bodies revising parking fees

Central government programmes and budgetIssued draft notification on Euro VI in 2020Differentiated infra tax on diesel and petrol carsAMRUT and smart city policies etc

Government action since October 2015

Night time pollution during winter of 2014-15 and 2015-16

Source: CSE

Impact of action on trucks on night time pollution

Diesel cars legally allowed to emit several times more NOx and PM than petrol cars

Diesel emissions class 1 carcinogen for strong link with lung cancer

Black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles several times more heat trapping than CO2

Life cycle diesel emissions high -- CO2 emissions from the upstream diesel refining process to increase

Diesel fuel has higher carbon content than petrol. Rebound Effect: If more diesel is burnt due to cheaper prices and more driving, more heat-trapping CO2 will escape.

Nullifies marginal greenhouse gas reduction benefit of diesel car ……

Control dieselisation

135140145150155160165170175

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

CO

2 (g

m/k

m)

CO2CO2

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM (gm

/km)

PMPM

London: Pre Euro VI cars not to be allowed inside the ultra low emissions zone in Central London. France: Euro VI diesel cars not to be included in the new category 1 colour coding scheme that classifies vehicles according to how much they pollute. French government to “progressively” ban diesel vehicles. Paris: To phase out pre-2011 diesel cars by the end of the decade.  Madrid: To ban polluting diesel cars from the city centre from 2020. Netherlands: In 1998 the Third National Environment Policy targeted to reduce diesel chare to only 5% in 2010. Dutch registration and circulation taxes for diesel cars are close to prohibitive. Kept share of diesel cars in Netherland lower than EU average. Brazil Sales of diesel passenger cars and commercial vehicles below 1,000 kg are banned since the 1970s Beijing has banned diesel cars as a pollution control measure. China has the lowest diesel car penetration at less than 1%. China taxes do not differentiate between petrol and diesel fuel.  Sri Lanka has imposed several times higher duties for diesel cars compared to petrol cars and have reduced diesel car sales.  

Global action on diesel cars

39

Accelerate emissions standards roadmap

-- Introduce Bharat Stage IV emissions standards nation-wide this year

--- Leapfrog to Euro VI emissions standards in 2020

-- Implement advanced in-use compliance regulations and strategies

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India adopts air quality index and health advisory

National Air Quality Index in India Breakpoints for AQI Scale 0-500 (units: μg/m3 unless mentioned otherwise)

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Health advisory to people in Indian cities

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Pollution emergency action in Delhi

Source: CSE analysis based on DPCC data

Delhi enforces Odd and even scheme as pollution emergency action during January 2016

Pollution context based on AQI:

November and December 2015 -- higher number of days in severe category-four times the safe standard –the worst category according to the National Air Quality Index.

November 2015 had 73% cent of days in severe category against 53% in November, 2014.

December 2015 had 67% of days in severe category as against 65% in December 2014.

December 2014 at least had 3% of days in good and satisfactory category but December 2015 had none.

Winter of 2014-15: No action

Source: CSE

Source: CSE

Winter of 2015-16: Action gathers momentum

Pollution lightened...

Good   Bad0 to 0.3 0.3 to 0.45 0.45 to 0.60 0.60 to 0.75 0.75 to 0.90 > 0.90           

Legends:

Aerosol Optical Depth: Pre Odd-Even Trial December 18 to 31, 2015

Aerosol Optical Depth : During Odd-Even Trial January 1 to 15, 2016

Source: University of Miami

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Improvement in quality of life

-- Road rationing allowed buses, autos and taxis to do more kilometres and carry more people. Metro and bus ridership increased

-- Bus fleet utilization improved -- DTC bus fleet utilization improved from 84% in normal days to 95% during Odd-even fortnight

-- Petrol Dealers Association reported overall drop in petrol and diesel sales -- by 4.7% and 7.8%

-- Traffic Survey and Travel Attributes Study’ by the School of Planning and Architecture’ found:

substantial reduction in traffic volume and congestion.   Improvement in journey speed by all modes

Average occupancy of cars increased from 1.4 to 2.1  People experience change….

Other spin offs draw focus on mobility agenda…..

Air pollution and mobility challenge…..

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MOBILITY CRISIS

Cities are losing battle of car-bulge: The rapid increase in vehicles is destroying all gains of air pollution and health

Cars occupy more road space, carry fewer people, pollute more, guzzle more fuel.

They edge out public transport users, pedestrians, bicycles, cycle rickshaws ..

Delhi government budget 2016-17– Augment bus numbers, infrastructure and improve service

Supreme Court directive on bus infrastructure

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Reality check in Delhi Reality check in Delhi Public transport losing ground Public transport losing ground

Source: Anon 2008, transport demand forecast study: study and development of an integrated cum multi modal public transport network for NCT of Delhi, RITES, MVA Asia Ltd, TERI, September

Bus reformsUnder scanner:

Bus rolling stock – clean and fuel efficient buses. Delhi government budget for 3000 buses

Bus infrastructure – depot, terminal, inspection and maintenance strategies

Quality of bus service -- operational efficiency

Bus rapid transit

Financing of bus systems

Scale up the solutions

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Delhi is developing guidelines for modal interchange location Delhi-- UTTIPEC/DDA guidelines

Bus stop, cycle rental: within 50 meter level walk from station exit

Cycle and two wheeler parking :within 100 meter level walk from station exit

Auto rickshaw stand: within 150 meter level walk from station exit

Private car/taxi/auto rickshaw “drop off”: with barrier-free of exiting pedestrians and NMT

Pedestrian exits, bus-stops and Cycle-rickshaw stands must be closest to main pedestrian exits from station.Car parking if provided, must be BEYOND 250 M distance of Station/ or PT interchange pointPairing of Origin-Destination (O-D) Nodes: Provide cycle/ auto stands at nearby important destinations.

Metro station/Public transport interchange point

Delhi government budget – Investment in walking and cycling infrastructure

Supreme Court directive on clean air fund and investment in walk and cycling infrastructure

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Unsafe walking access….

Poorly designed walking infrastructure- Discontinuous, poorly paved footpaths, and not easily accessible - Height and width of pavements violate norms - Poor signages, no pedestrian refuge islands -- crosswalks are ordeal - No kerbed ramps or blended crossings to access the crosswalk facilities - Exposure to traffic very high.

Source: CSE

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Design solutions are not implemented

Retrofit change… ……..Change is possible

Connaught Place

Source: CSE

Looks nice. But design faults compromise use

VIKAS MARG Source: CSE

Poor maintenance and obstruction

TUGHLAKABAD FORT

Source: CSE

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NMT infrastructure not protected

Source: CSE

There are policies and laws…but don’t add up

– National Urban transport policy: Advisory-- CMVR safety rules -- says motorist cannot enter

pedestrian way. Liable to penalty--Indian Penal Code (sec 283), sec 34 of Delhi Police

Act -- obstruction in public space punishable-- Urban street vendor policy, 2007, to protect livelihood

rights – Guidelines for proper vending zones. They are service providers on footpaths…

-- Master Plan 2021 provides for pedestrian facilities-- Design and engineering guidelines (IRC) – -- Disabilities Act 1995 (Sec 44) – guidelines for disable

• Rules are not enforced for protection of pedestrian infrastructure and rights

Shahadra, East Delhi

Policy link between sprawl and pollution weak

Only 1 per cent of Delhi’s population live in Lutyen’s Delhi. Density 26683

persons/km

New Delhi: Population Density 3820

NE Delhi: Population Density 37346

Space affluence vs unliveable peripheries

•Delhi has one of the most sparsely populated core in the world.• New Delhi’s density is more than six times lower than core administrative regions of New York and Madrid

Source: Complied

Density control in Delhi has pushed people out of the city core

Need density redistribution and infilling

• Chawri Bazar • Race Course • Green Park

Source: CSE

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Integrated Public Transport Network Plan for 2021. implement this….to meet Delhi Master Plan target of 80% public transport ridership

in 2021.

Source: Transport Demand Forecast and Development of Public Transport Network, RITES

6666

But roads are not designed for public transport, walking and cycling…..

Engineering changes once made cannot be reversed easily… It permanently decides our travel choices. Locks in pollution

Case Study – Outer Ring Road (Nehru Place Flyover)Travelling from A to B

CR Park Kalkaj

i

Pamposh-Enclave

Nehru PlaceB

A

Originally 30M across the road

Case Study – Outer Ring Road (Nehru Place Flyover)Travelling from A to B – Pedestrian Route 1

CR Park

Kalkaji

Pamposh-Enclave

Nehru Place

B

A

1000M via FOB

FOB

Case Study – Gurgaon Sector 28Accessing Metro from ITC Laburnam Apts

ITC Laburnam Apts

• Shortest route not possible.

Emerald Court 1

IFFCO Chowk Metro

MGF Plaza Mall

400M

Case Study – Gurgaon Sector 28Accessing Metro from ITC Laburnam Apts

ITC Laburnam Apts

Emerald Court 1

IFFCO Chowk Metro

MGF Plaza Mall

1800M

National Habitat Standard Mission of the Ministry of Urban Development

Guidelines for compact mixed land use

-- 95% of residences should have daily needs retail, parks, primary schools and recreational areas accessible within 400m walking distance.

-- 95% residences should have access to employment and public and institutional services by public transport or bicycle or walk or combination of two or more.

-- At least 85% of all streets to have mixed use development.

-- Need small block size with high density permeable streets etc

Build compact city………Devil is in detail

UTTIPEC guidelines

Need restraint measures...

Directive on parking policy as car restraint measures ....

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This is not sustainable…

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Parking pressure

• Insatiable demand for land:

• Daily registration of cars is generating demand for land bigger than 310 football fields! Land is expensive and has other opportunity costs.

• Inequitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking. Under low cost housing scheme only 18-25 sq m is allotted to very poor families.

• Urban common, green spaces, walkways at risk

Land is limited. Where will Delhi find more land to park cars?

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Acceptance of demand management principles

2006Supreme Court/EPCA:

“Land is limited and there is a limit to the additional parking space that can be created in the city. This will also require …. well thought out pricing policy to control the demand for parking.”

• The provision of parking for personal motorised vehicles cannot be considered as a matter of public good.

• Individual user of personal vehicle should pay for the use of the space for parking and parking facilities. The ‘user pays’ principle should govern the pricing of parking.

• Government should not subsidise this cost• On the basis of these principles MCD, DDA, NDMC should frame

the rationalised pricing policy for all types of parking facilities…

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National Urban Transport Policy

2006-- Urban land is valuable. Levy high parking fee that represents value of land occupied. Graded parking fee should recover the cost of the land. Make public transport more attractive.

-- Public transport vehicles and non-motorised modes of transport be given preference in parking space allocation.

-- Park and ride facilities for bicycle users with convenient interchange are a useful measure.

-- In residential areas byelaws need changes to free the public carriageway….

Why are we wasting so much valuable space for parking?

A 100 sqm plot built to the full allowable FAR (315 sq m) needs 161 sq m of parking space by Law - more than half. This is equal to one and half storey or space of 4 EWS dwellings….

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Free or underpriced parking inciting motorisation

Indian cities have the lowest parking rates in the world

Global studies show : Shifting from free to parking rates can reduce automobile commuting by 10-30 per cent especially if linked with other transportation choices

Weak connection between parking policy and air pollution mitigation strategy

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Other countries are using parking policy to restraint

car useBoston has frozen parking requirements at 10 per cent higher than the 1973

levels. This has helped Boston to meet the federal clean air standards.

Portland, Oregon set an overall cap of 40,000 parking spaces downtown. This increased public transport usage from 20-25 per cent in the 1970s to 48 per cent in mid 1990s.

Seattle allows a maximum of one parking space per 100 square metres of downtown office space.

San Francisco limits parking to seven per cent of a downtown building’s floor area

New York: Very high parking fees and limited parking supply have lowered car ownership far below the average rates in other US cities.

Amsterdam -parking fees expanded to meet NO2 and PM10 standards.

Zurich considers total NO2 emissions when determining the amount of parking to be allowed.

Bogota has removed limit on the fees that private parking companies can charge. The additional revenue is dedicated to road maintenance and public transit service improvement.

80

Policy principles changing... but no action

• Need flexible parking standards and maximum caps

• Parking district management

• Stringent controls and enforcement

• Parking pricing for demand management

• Integrate parking design with multi-modal integration;

• Parking strategy for buses, IPT, freight

• No parking on green spaces, pavement, NMT lanes etc. Non-negotiable.

• Need parking strategy for residential areas and mixed land use areas. Promote priced, shared, common parking

• Use parking revenue for local area development, public transport; Stringent penalty on parking violations.

• Parking strategy for special localities like hospitals, railway station, cinemas, shopping malls, schools, high impact events etc

• Need traffic impact assessment of new developments

81

Indian style socialism… we tax the bus higher than the car

2,90,431

30,521

2,725

5.69

2.39

0.44

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Two wheeler Cars Bus0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total annual tax per vehicle Total tax per vehicle-km

Tax per vehicle-km

Annual tax

World bank study in India: Buses pay more taxes

In Delhi:

Buses pay at least Rs 13,000 per year as road tax

Cars: One time road tax works out to be a mere Rs 300 per year

Need tax measures to change behaviour

82

Action Agenda for air Pollution control

Reduce emissions from vehiclesLeapfrog emissions standards Reinvent mobility – link with urban planning and design

Reduce emissions from power plantsTighter control on coal based power plantsSet new standards for NOx and air toxics

Shift to natural gas for power – insist GOI provides clean gasReduce emissions from air polluting industry

Review the challenges of industrial emissions and control measuresReduce emissions from generator sets

Tighter emission standards for generator sets Siting and acoustic measures for big gen setsEnergy efficiency measures to reduce electricity demand

Action on open burningMonitoring and awareness campaign

Road dust and construction activitiesAdopt dust control measures for construction industry, and roads

83

• The paradox: Strong environmental laws; but weak action.

• Role of Judiciary: catalyst

• Vigilant civil society: important

• Need legal mechanism to meet clean air targets

Challenge of air quality governance

84

Our health is non-negotiable

Source: CSE

85 Thank You