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This workshop on long term conditions worked to identify third sector roles and contributions
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www.hertsdirect.orgThink Intelligence, Think Intelligently
Third Sector Public Health Workshop
…Long Term Conditions
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Workshop Outline
• Deprivation and disability free life expectancy
• Projections for long term conditions
• Long term conditions by age group
• HIV Prevalence
• Depression
• Dementia
• Diabetes estimates and projections
• Other long term conditions
• What can third sector agencies do?
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High impact third sector roles
• Integration between health and social care
• Home from hospital
• Community interventions
• Self management
• Resilience and coping
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Deprivation
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Disability Free Life expectancy and Deprivation
Life expectancy and disability free life expectancy in Hertfordshire
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0
DeprivationIndex of Multiple Deprivation (higher number = high deprivation)
Ag
e
Life expectancy Disability free life expectancySources: EMPHO/LHO, 2006-10; ONS 1999-2003; DCLG, 2010
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Long term conditions by age group
Long Term Health Problem or Disability by Health by Age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
Age
Perc
enta
ge o
f Pop
ulati
on (%
) Hertfordshire: Bador very bad health
Hertfordshire: Day-to-day activitieslimited a lot
England: Bad orvery bad health
England: Day-to-day activitieslimited a lot
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Long-term conditions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
2012
2016
2020
N Herts. E Herts. Brox. Wel Hat. Stev. Dac. St Alb. H.mere Three R. W.ford
East & North Herts CCG Herts Valleys CCG
# O
f Peo
ple
Long-Term Conditions Projections
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People aged 15-59 diagnosed with HIV
HIV Diagnoses in people aged 15-59
948
112
165
138
97
6895
817747
68
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
England Hertfordshire Watford Stevenage Welwyn Hatfield Hertsmere Broxbourne Dacorum NorthHertfordshire
St Albans Three Rivers EastHertfordshire
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
Source: Health Protection Agency (HPA)
Numbers represent the number of people accessing HIV treatment
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Late HIV Diagnoses
Late HIV Diagnoses* in Hertfordshire
107
13
1519 11 12 7
5 16
5<5
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
2008/10
2009/11
2010/12
England Hertfordshire Three Rivers Dacorum Watford St Albans Stevenage Broxbourne Hertsmere WelwynHatfield
East Herts NorthHerts
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
all
HIV
dia
gn
os
es
Source: Survey Of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed (SOPHID), HIV and AIDS New Diagnoses Database (HANDD), and CD4 Surveillance - analysed by the Health Protection Agency
*Adults (aged 15 years or more) w ho have been diagnosed w ith HIV and have a CD4 count of less than 350 cells per mm3 w ithin 91 days of HIV diagnosis.Numbers respresent the numbers of people affected in the three year period betw een 2010 and 2012
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Depression prevalence in Hertfordshire
Prevalence of depression diagnosis, all ages, in Hertfordshire
101884 109492
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
England Hertfordshire
Per
cen
tag
e
Source: HSCIC Compendium of Population Health Indicators (Quality and Outcomes Framew ork, QMAS database)Numbers indicate how many people are affected
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Dementia prevalence in Hertfordshire
Dementia prevalence in Hertfordshire, all ages
53195566
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
England Hertfordshire
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Source: HSCIC Compendium of Population Health Indicators (Quality and Outcomes Framew ork, QMAS database)
Numbers indicate how many people are affected
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Dementia
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Nu
mb
er
of
pe
op
le
Year
People aged 65 and over predicted to have dementia, by age, projected to 2020, Hertfordshire
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Source: www.poppi.org.uk
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Estimated diabetes prevalence in Hertfordshire adults
Estimated total (diagnosed and undiagnosed) diabetes prevalence in adults (16+)
6.9%6.6%
7.3%7.8%
8.3%
7.3%7.6%
8.2%8.6%
8.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hertfordshire England Source: Public Health England, Diabetes prevalence model for local authorities
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Estimated prevalence of long term conditions Hertfordshire in 2011
• COPD – 2.74% of people in Hertfordshire, approximately 30700 people
• CHD – 4.69% of people in Hertfordshire, approximately 52500 people
• Stroke – 2.19% of people in Hertfordshire, approximately 24500 people.
• Cancer – approximately 5000 new incidences of all cancers per year.
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High impact third sector roles
• Integration between health and social care
• Home from hospital
• Community interventions
• Self management
• Resilience and coping
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Further information
• http://jsna.hertslis.org- Health and Wellbeing in Hertfordshire
• www.hertlis.org- Local Information System
• www.pansi.org.uk - Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information
• www.poppi.org.uk - Projecting Older People Population Information System
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Where to from here?What can 3rd sector do?
What can we do together?
What can PH do, What can CCGs, HCS?
