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Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Using scenarios to plan the future workforce for the health and social care
system in England
Jack P. Lawrence
Data Modeller, CfWI, England
Dr Graham Willis
Head of Research and Development, CfWI, England
Dr Siôn Cave
Decision Analysis Services Ltd, England
Perugia, Italy - January 21-23, 2015
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
To become the primary source of high quality, evidence-based workforce intelligence for health, public health and social care.
To be the leading authority - providing world-class intelligence to support workforce planning across health, public health and social care.
Our mission
Our vision
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
How many doctors do we need??
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Trai
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d h
osp
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(th
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san
ds)
60
50
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Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
Answer…
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Do we trust this??
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Policy
What if the future is not what we expect?
Failure
Megatrends
ProblemSystem
Events
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Consider many futures…
Expected future
Use plausible, challenging and consistent futures to test policies
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Supply
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Demand
Multiple futures…
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Why do this??
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Po
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tco
me
s
Po
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op
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ns
A
B
C
D
Evaluation…
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Robust workforce planning
Understand the system
Explore the future
Simulate the possibilities
Make robust decisions
Focal question
Transparent and participatory
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Horizon scanning
Context
Issues
Factors
Events
Ideas bank System mapping
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Scenario generationStakeholder workshops
Influencing factors
Keyfactors
Consistency check
Narrative scenarios
Quantified scenarios
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Modeling and simulation
Demand side
OutputsSupply
side
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Po
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ou
tco
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s
Po
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ns
A
B
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D
Policy analysis
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
But there’s more!
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Trai
ne
d h
osp
ital
do
cto
rs
(th
ou
san
ds)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
Uncertainty bands
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Trai
ne
d h
osp
ital
do
cto
rs
(th
ou
san
ds)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
Uncertainty bands
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Trai
ne
d h
osp
ital
do
cto
rs
(th
ou
san
ds)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
Uncertainty bands
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Supply
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Demand
Uncertainty bands
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Supply
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Trai
ned
ho
spit
al d
oct
ors
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Demand
Uncertainty bands
Contact details
www.cfwi.org.uk | www.horizonscanning.org.uk
Questions welcomed…
Dr Graham WillisHead of Research and DevelopmentCfWI, England
+44(0)7812 340 405
Dr Siôn CaveDecision Analysis Service Ltd, England
+44(0)7825 758 139
Jack P. LawrenceData ModellerCfWI, England
@
+44(0)7812 340 405
Business Systems Laboratory 3rd International SymposiumADVANCES IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT. TOWARDS SYSTEMIC APPROACH
Using scenarios to plan the future workforce for the health and social care
system in England
Jack P. Lawrence
Data Modeller, CfWI, England
Dr Graham Willis
Head of Research and Development, CfWI, England
Dr Siôn Cave
Decision Analysis Services Ltd, England
Perugia, Italy - January 21-23, 2015
