40
Jump the Curve Jouko Karvinen

Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen.

Citation preview

Page 1: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Jump the CurveJouko Karvinen

Page 2: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

It should be noted that certain statements herein which are not historical facts, including, without limitation those regarding expectations for market growth and developments; expectations for growth and profitability; and statements preceded by “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “foresees”, or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Since these statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, they involve risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: (1) operating factors such as continued success of manufacturing activities and the achievement of efficiencies therein, continued success of product development, acceptance of new products or services by the Group’s targeted customers, success of the existing and future collaboration arrangements, changes in business strategy or development plans or targets, changes in the degree of protection created by the Group’s patents and other intellectual property rights, the availability of capital on acceptable terms; (2) industry conditions, such as strength of product demand, intensity of competition, prevailing and future global market prices for the Group’s products and the pricing pressures thereto, price fluctuations in raw materials, financial condition of the customers and the competitors of the Group, the potential introduction of competing products and technologies by competitors; and (3) general economic conditions, such as rates of economic growth in the Group’s principal geographic markets or fluctuations in exchange and interest rates.

Page 3: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Q3 2011

Page 4: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Scorecard Q3 2011 Q3 2010

EBIT excl. one times €204m €255m

Cash after CAPEX €282m €230m

Liquidity €1,181m €1,121m

Page 5: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Scorecard Q3 2011 Q3 2010

Working capital % 19% 17%

Personnel 28 771 27 785

Debt to equity 0.45 0.43

Page 6: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Outlook

Page 7: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

• Production curtailments increased in Q3

• will continue in Q4

• Q4 EBIT excl. NRI and FV

• somewhat lower year on year

Demand development Q4/11 vs Q4/10

Price development Q4/11 vs Q3/11

Consumer Board

Industrial Packaging

Newsprint and Book Paper

Coated Magazine Paper

Uncoated Magazine Paper

Coated Fine PaperUncoated Fine PaperWood Products

11

Page 8: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Next

Page 9: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Competition

Page 10: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Future that already happened

Page 11: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

0

25

50

75

100

ad spend time spent

digital TV radio print

Western Europe 2010

Page 12: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Five years

Page 13: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

telephonePC

mobilephoneTV

radioDVD

youtubeFacebook

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%US population use 5 years after launch

Page 14: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

50 %

Page 15: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Magazine

Page 16: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Flexibility

Page 17: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

• From

• Minimum cost at full operating rate

• Sharing curtailments

• Machine specialisation

• To

• Lowest delivered cost at real operating rates

• Focus curtailments to highest cost units

• Asset base optimisation

Page 18: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Capacity reduction to market share 2005-2011Newsprint SC CMR

Stora Enso comp comp rest

Announced and completed permanent closures

Page 19: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Free Cash Flow

Investments

Restructuring

Use of cash flow from operations 2006-2010

Page 20: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Fixe

d co

st to

reve

nue

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 2011

Page 21: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Jump

Page 22: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Margin vs. Operating RateEB

IT %

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Operating Rate90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%

Page 23: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Margin vs. Operating RateEB

IT %

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Operating Rate90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96%

Page 24: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Renew Recycle Re-use

Page 25: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Competition

Page 26: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

100 million tons

Page 27: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

25 %

Page 28: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Wood is good

Page 29: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

gram

s pe

r kilo

gram

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

steel frame concrete block brick concrete wood

manufacturing CO2 Carbon sink

Page 30: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Prepared

Page 31: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

• Good inventory levels

• Flexibility up

• Strong liquidity

• Executing on strategic growth

Page 32: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

So much more to do!

Page 33: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Flexibility

Page 34: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Working Capital to Sales

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q32008

nowbest segment2nd

3rd

Page 35: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

Less is more

Page 36: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

MFC for 7 billion in 2012

• Lighter • Stronger • Less energy

Page 37: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Net Promoter Score

Promoters Passives Retractors

Page 38: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Customer response on Rethink2010 2011

positives neutral negative

Page 39: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen

1

Page 40: Deutsche Bank, Paper Seminar. Presentation by CEO Jouko Karvinen