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Fourth Quarter 2012 Bo Askvik, President & CEO Nicolas Adlercreutz, CFO Stockholm, 6 February 2013

Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

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Page 1: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Fourth Quarter 2012

Bo Askvik, President & CEO

Nicolas Adlercreutz, CFO

Stockholm, 6 February 2013

Page 2: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Today’s three topics

2

Q4

>> FOURTH QUARTER 2012

Financial highlights

>> STRENGTHENED FINANCIALS

Recapitalisation completed

>> PA RESOURCES WAY FORWARD

Strategy and investment focus

Page 3: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

3

Tomas Hedström appointed as new CFO

BRIEF

• Broad international experience in accounting and finance

from listed companies

• Most recently CFO at Rottneros AB (publ)

• Several positions at SCA (publ), with sales of more than

SEK 100 billlion and 50,000 employees, most recently as

Senior Vice President Finance

• M.Sc. Business and Economics

• Assumes position as CFO by 1 August 2013 or earlier

Page 4: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Financial highlights

Q1

Page 5: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Earnings and key ratios

5

Q4

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2011

FY

2012

FY

2011

Production (bopd) 7,100 7,700 8,400 7,900 8,600

Oil price (USD/barrel) 106 109 104 111 103

Revenue (SEK million) 467 525 535 2,184 2,154

EBITDA (SEK million) 266 292 306 1,255 1,295

EBITDA margin 56.9% 55.7% 57.2% 57.5% 60.1%

Profit before tax

(SEK million) *

-16 64 11 85 158

Profit for the period

(SEK million)

-340 -1,385 -1,855 -1,966 -2,084

Earnings per share

(SEK)

-0.24 -2.17 -2.91 -2.36 -3.27

* Figures for Q4 and full-year 2012, exclude non-cash, one-off costs of SEK 169 million respectively

SEK 1,748 million and for Q3 2012 of SEK 1,495 million. Figures for Q4 and full year 2011, exclude SEK

2,035 million in one-off costs

KEY COMMENTS Q4 vs Q3

• Lower production and realised price

lowered revenue

• Stable costs, to a large extent fixed.

• EBITDA margin improved to 56.9%

• Relinquishment of P1342 and

P1802 of SEK 18 million and Azurite

direct costs of SEK 151 million

presented as one-off costs

• Financial net impacted by non-cash

item related to set-off issue of SEK

70 million

• New assessment of deductible

costs in EG increased income taxes

with approx. SEK 75 million.

Page 6: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Q4 - after one-offs and set-off issue

6

SEK million Q4

2012

Q4

One-offs

Tax and

FX effects

Set-off

effects

Q4

adjusted

Revenue 466,801 466,801

Cost of sales & other

expenses -201,046 -201,046

Depreciation & WD -256,752 169,226 -87,526

Operating profit 9,003 169,226 178,229

Financial revenue 1,908 1,908

Financial expenses -195,697 22,000 84,762 -88,935

Total financial items -193,789 0 22,000 84,762 -87,027

Profit before income

tax -184,786 169,226 22,000 84,762 91,202

Income tax -154,797 75,000 -79,797

Profit for the period -339,583 169,226 97,000 84,764 11,405

KEY COMMENTS

• Relinquishment of UK licences

amounted to SEK 18 million.

• After total Azurite impairment in Q3,

all additional investments has been

treated as direct costs, amounting

to SEK 151 million in Q4

• Q4 fx effects in financial net SEK

-22 million mainly related to NOK

• New assessment on deductible

costs in Equatorial Guinea increa-

sed income taxes with approx. SEK

75 million.

• Effect from set-off issue (convertible

bond) amounting to SEK 85 million

Page 7: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Improved cash flow

7

SEK million

Q4

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2011

FY

2012

FY

2011

Operating cash flow 175 64 -106 838 812

of which income

taxes paid

0 0 -7 -5 -45

CAPEX -186 -16 -135 -255 -1,613

Financing activities 65 -51 36 -568 -408

Net cash flow 54 -2 -204 15 -1,209

KEY COMMENTS

• Improved operating cash flow

• SEK 838 million for the full year 2012

• SEK 175 million in Q4

• Higher capex spending in Q4 mainly

relating to Azurite sidetrack preparations

• Amortisations of SEK 568 million for full

year

• Full year net cash flow of SEK 15 million

Page 8: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Strengthened financial position

Q1

Page 9: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

» Offer to convertible bondholders to set-off their convertible bonds against newly

issued shares at SEK 0.15

» Approx. 90 percent of the nominal amount was converted into newly issued shares

» Equity increased with SEK 968 million and nominal debt decreased with SEK 890

million (net debt reduced by 819 MSEK)

Recapitalisation completed

Completed two-step transaction strengthens equity with approx. SEK 1.570 billion

Set-off issue

9

1

» Fully underwritten rights issue at SEK 0.10 (~50% directed to old share holders and

~50% to convertible bondholders)

» 51% of shares (3,570 million) were subscribed with preferential right

» Additionally, 226 million shares were subscribed for with subsidiary preferential right

and without preferential right agreements

» The remaining 3,256 million shares were allocated to guarantors pro rata in relation to

total undertaking

» Total number of shares amounts to 14,146 million

» Increases equity by SEK 604 million after transaction related costs and reduces net

debt by SEK 602 million

» Outcome of transactions to result in significant changes in shareholder structure

Fully underwritten rights issue

2

Page 10: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Strengthened financial position

10

RECAPITALISATION COMPLETED

• Equity significantly strengthened with

SEK 1 570 million after transactions

related costs

• Cash and cash equivalents after rights

issue of SEK 569 million

• Net debt reduced by SEK 1 421 million

Equity and Net debt before and after transactions (SEK million)

Pro forma Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Covenants

Book Equity (SEK million) 2, 194 1 590 956 2,608 >2,000

Book Equity to

Capital Employed 46% 37% 22% 43% >40%

Net debt (SEK million) 2 028 2 630 3,410 3,503 N/A

Covenants and Net Debt development

956 334

968 ,1 590

604 ,2 194

3 410 3 450

2 630 2 630

2 028

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

30 Sept.2012

Q4, excl.set-offissue

Set-offissue

31 Dec.2012

ProForma

After newShareIssue

Net d

eb

t Eq

uit

y

Equity Net Debt (RHS)

Page 11: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Strategy & focus

Q1

Page 12: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

PA Resources way forward

12

2013 - 2018

Development of

prioritised projects

with reduced risk

>> LONG TERM GROWTH

Development of ~ 32 mmboe for

long-term production growth

>> BALANCED INVESTMENTS

Farm-out of assets reducing invest-

ments and risk, financing from

production and debt financing at lower

level

Page 13: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Business plan – development for future growth

13

Operating cash flow and

strengthened liquidity enables

maintenance, financing and

amortisations

» Cash flow from producing assets to finance maintenance investments

in Aseng and Didon fields

» Strengthened balance sheet, in combination with new debt financing,

enables planned amortizations of bond loans and credit facilities

Lower interest reduces both

investments and risk

» Farm-out processes ongoing to reduce interest in certain prioritized assets

• Zarat license in Tunisia (Elyssa, Zarat and Didon)

• 12/06 in Denmark (Broder Tuck and Lille John)

» Reduced risk exposure to individual projects and share of investment

» Strengthened balance sheet improves position for future transactions

Development of

prioritized assets for

long-term production growth

» Cash flow from producing fields combined with new debt financing

enables development of ~32 mmboe to production

» Net debt to remain in line with the level following the transactions

Selective exploration to increase

the resource base

» Selective exploration and appraisal in Equatorial Guinea, Tunisia and

the Netherlands, a few scheduled commitment wells coming two years

2016

Elyssa & Lille John 2017

Broder Tuck

2018

Zarat

Page 14: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Investments and key assumptions

14

KEY ASSUMPTIONS:

Development is not progressed until farm-out

successful

• Maintenance investments on producing fields

• Farm-out of prioritised assets to reach

preferred working interest level and reduce

risk on individual assets

• Zarat licence from 100% to 20%

• Didon field from 100%% to 50%

• 12/06 from 64% to 15%

• Present operatorship in farm-out assets

secures development planning

• Oil price of 110 USD/bbl and USD/SEK of

6.53

Capex forecast 2013-2018 before and

after farm out transactions (SEK million)

1,613

255 170 270

540 590

230

520

680

970

300

0 0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

PA Resources' share of investments Partners' share of investments

Page 15: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Expected outcome of planned development

15

KEY ASSUMPTIONS:

• Development of existing

reserves adding after farm-out

30 MMBOE for long-term

production growth

• Debt stays around current

level

• Expected net cash position in

2018

Estimated development of net debt

and average production

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

ba

rrels

pe

r da

y

SE

K b

illi

on

Net debt actual Production Net debt estimate

Page 16: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Operations & Outlook

Q1

Page 17: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Changes in Reserves and Resources 2012

17

Working

Interest

Net

Entitlement

End 2011:

Proven and probable reserves*

Production

Revision

1P/P90 2P/P50 1P/P90 2P/P50

39.1 60.2

-2.9

+1.9

-2.9

-1.6

-2.1

+1.3

-2.1

-1.4

25.9 40.4

End 2012: 38.1 55.7 25.1 36.9

* Reserves are classified accordingly to the SPE-PRMS 2007 guideline

KEY COMMENTS:

• Improved 1P to 2P ratio from 65 to 68%

• 1P reserves impacted by;

• Increase of 1P volume for the Aseng field

(1.03 mmboe) and the Tunisian fields (1.0

mmboe) based on production performance

• Reduction for Azurite of 0.15 mmboe

• 2P reserves impacted primarily by;

• Downwards revision of Azurite reserves by

2.9 mmboe on a working interest based

• Upwards revision of the Tunisian fields

(1 mmboe)

• Resources approximately unchanged

• Contingent resources of 142 mmboe (145)

• Risked prospective resources of 406 mmboe

(409) at a mid-case level

Page 18: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

1,613

255 250-380

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2011 2012 2013

Capex 2012 and forecast 2013

Actual Forecasted

Capex development and forecast (SEK million) KEY COMMENTS

• Capex in Q4 amounted to SEK 186 million

• Azurite investments of SEK 151 million fully

expensed in Q4

• 2012 full year capex of SEK 255 million, at

the lower end of the forecast range of SEK

240 – 275 million

• 2013 forecast of SEK 250 – 380 million,

presuming maintained interest (no farm-outs)

18

Page 19: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Capex forecast 2013/2014 – drilling programme

DK: 12/06 Lille John 2013/2014 Appraisal/

Exploration/1-2

EG: Block I Block I 2013 Appraisal/

Exploration/2

EG: Block H Aleta 2013 Exploration/1

NL: Q7/10a Q7-FA Q4

2013/2014

Appraisal/

Development/1

Tunisia: Zarat Elyssa 2013/2014 Appraisal/1

Tunisia: Makthar 2014 Exploration/1

Drilling programme/planned wells 2013-2014 Capex forecast 2013 includes:

• Drilling campaign on 12/06 high priority

• Drilling on 12/06, Block H and Q7/10a

dependent on rig availability

• Drilling campaign ín Block I in EG

• Maintenance investments on producing

fields

• Elyssa well assumes successful farm-out

of Zara tlicence

• The drilling programme is revised

continuously based on the capex budget

and prioritised commitments

19

Page 20: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

20

Production and sales

bopd Full-year

2012

Q4

2012

January

2013

West Africa 5,600 4,900 5,000

North Africa 2,300 2,200 2,100

Group Total 7,900 7,100 7,100

• ASENG: Average production level increased of

60,500 boepd in Q4 (3,400 net to PA Resources)

• AZURITE: Production slightly lower than

expected in Q4 due to several short production

interruptions on the FDPSO

• TUNISIA: Stable production

• PRICE: PA Resources realised price slightly

under Brent average for the quarter due to local

discount in Tunisia

Average production per country (bopd)

Average sales price (USD/bbl)

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Congo: Azurite EG: Aseng Tunisia: Didon & Onshore

97

109 106 104

120

109 109 106

106

117 113 109

119

108 109 110

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

PA Resources Brent

Page 21: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

21

Recent development

HIGHLIGHTS

• Azurite workover operation suffered mechanical

downhole problem preventing sidetrack from the

existing wellbore. Ongoing evaluation of future options

for the field – awaiting operator’s proposal

• Alen field development progressing according to plan

and below budget, targeting first production in Q3

2013

• Following detailed studies, two licences in UK

were relinquished

• German licence farm-out to Danoil (10%, pending

approval)

• Tentative Unitization agreement of the Zarat field

• Tunisian farm-out process ongoing

Page 22: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

EG Block I - Plateau continues at foundation asset PA Resources 5.7%

• First oil from Aseng in November 2011, plateau level of

around 60,000 bopd sustained since March 2012

• Total field production since start in November 2011 of

~27 mmbo + 1.5 million barrels to PA Resources

• Average production of 60,500 bopd in Q4,

3,400 net to PA Resources

• 1P reserves upgrade substantially replaces 2012 production

• Profitable barrels

• Investments of SEK 500 million recovered in 2012

• Opex per barrel will reduce after Alen commencement

• 6-9 liftings per quarter generate frequent cash flow

• Alen field development – first oil expected in Q3 2013

22

Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%),

Atlas Petroleum Int. (27.55%), Glencore (23.75%),

PA Resources (5.7%), GEPetrol (5%)

Page 23: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

EG Block I - Exciting near term drilling program PA Resources 5.7%

• Firm 2013 drilling programme with Atwood Hunter rig

• Progressing two exciting fields towards development

• Carla North and South

• 2011 discovery in adjacent Block O (’Carla North’)

currently being appraised in Block O, where operator

has announced additional oil reservoir found.

• Operator has announced plans for fast-track

development tied back to Aseng vessel.

• Atwood Hunter rig will shortly move to Block I to drill

Carla South exploration well on same trend as Carla

North

• Diega

• Expect appraisal well and 3 to 4 week production test

in Block I later in 2013

• Operator estimates Diega P75-P25 gross resource

range of 65-116 mmboe

23

Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas

Petroleum Int. (27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources

(5.7%), GEPetrol (5%)

Block I

Carla South

Page 24: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

240 241 250 244 248280 297

329

54 59 61 63 68

7471

72

63 70 6845 50

4849

47

2325 29

5868

7586

96

380396

408 410435

477502

544

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Gas C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

mm

cfd

)

STEG IPP Industries (HP) Other (MP & BP)

~5% CAGR

Tunisia Zarat & Elyssa - Gas market pull on development

Historic Gas Demand

Source: STEG 2012

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Natu

ral G

as (

mm

cfd

)

Demand Supply

Demand

outstrips

Supply

from

2012

onwards

Historic & Forecasted Gas Supply

~3% CAGR

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(m

mcfd

)

Algerian Gas Miskar Hasdrubal El Franig BaguelChergui Adam Fields Oued Zar Maamoura and BarakaJbel Grouz Chouech Es Saida South Tunisia Gas Project Other

Demand - Supply Shortfall

Note: Forecast supply does not include production from Zarat and Elyssa

fields

24

Page 25: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Tunisia Zarat & Elyssa - Beneficial economic environment

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, Factset

~58% ~60% ~60% ~62% ~64%

~75% ~77%

Americas Tunisia OECD Middle

East

Asia-

Pacific

North

Africa

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

• Full recovery of exploration and development

expenditure

• Partial recovery of financing costs

• One of the most attractive E&P fiscal regimes in

North Africa

11.00

11.90

9.63

2.24

10.83

4.22

~6.00

9.18

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Tunisia Asia TTF NBP Henry

Hub

Libya

(EPSA)

Israel Egypt

US

$ / m

cf

International Gas Prices Regional Gas Prices

• Gas price enshrined in Tunisian Law

• Formula is tied to 85% of Mediterranean high

sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) price

• Assuming USD 90/bbl long term oil price, resultant

Tunisian gas price is c. USD 11/mcf

• Assuming USD 100/bbl long term oil price, resultant

Tunisian gas price is c. USD 12/mcf

…generates strong gas price for the project

…results in Government share of profit comparable to OECD Fiscal Incentives….

25

2.4

Linkage of domestic gas price to oil price...

Page 26: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

• Jelma-Makthar permits surround producing Douleb,

Semmama and Tamesmida (DST) fields onshore

Tunisia

• Both permits cover areas of 7,216 km² and 3,828 km²

• Jelma extended until 2016 and Makthar until 2014

• Makthar permit contains several onshore exploration

prospects

• Detailed analysis and modelling of 2D seismic over

Makthar finalised

• Evalutaion of Jelma permit potential completed

• Regional mapping of reservoirs, seals and source rock

formations over both permits completed

• Awarded open acreage around Douleb (189km2) as

integrated into Makthar permit

• New seismic to be acquired over Makthar’s most

promising prospects and leads in 2013 to mature

prospect for commitment well in 2014

Licence Group: Operator PA Resouces 100%

ETAP has a back-in right of up to 55%

Tunisia - Makthar and Jelma permits’ potential PA Resources 100%

26

NW Maiza

Boughanem

Friha

Jelma permit

Makthar permit

Douleb & Semmama

Page 27: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Denmark 12/06 - Progressing discoveries PA Resources Operator with 64%

• High quality Middle Jurassic reservoir proved by wells

• Mid to high case assessment of c. 25-50 mmboe gross

of contingent resources including liquids

• Technical and commercial studies continuing with focus

on eliminating need for further appraisal drilling

• Ongoing discussions with Maersk (DUC) for infrastructure

tie back as one of range of possible development

concepts

• Assumed production start in 2017

• Wells established 35 API oil in Miocene sandstone

at c. 900m – exceptionally light oil for shallow depth

• Remaining deeper potential likely – Chalk and Middle

Jurassic

• Efforts to locate available rig for appraisal drilling continue

in tight rig market

• Development options dependent on appraisal results –

successful appraisal could lead to tieback to nearby

infrastructure or standalone development

• Assumed production start in 2016/17

27

Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (64%),

Nordsøfonden (20%), Spyker Energy (8%), Danoil (8%)

B20008-73

12/06 Broder Tuck-2

Lille John-1

Broder Tuck

Lille John

Page 28: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Denmark 12/06 - Exploration and appraisal potential

28

PA Resources Operator with 64%

• Prospects at Miocene,

Chalk & Middle

Jurassic levels

• Commitments fulfilled,

2 year extension to

2014

• Follow-on potential in

German licence

B20008-73

12/06 Prospectivity

Page 29: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

29

Germany B20008-73 - Farm-out

Hanze

Regnar

Vagn

Tove

Broder Tuck

Lille John

PA Resources Operator with 90%

• Danish and Dutch sector prospectivity extends

onto B20008/73

• Danoil farming in for 10% (subject to regulatory

approvals)

• PA Resources’ 2011 Danish discoveries are seen

to upgrade prospectivity of B20008/73

• Currently evaluating existing 3D over block and

adjacent areas

• Decision to drill or drop at year end 2013

Licence B20008/73

Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (90%),

Danoil (10% subject to regulatory approvals)

Page 30: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

• Application group PA Resources 50% (Operator),

First Oil & Gas Limited 50%, notified that award

will be made.

• 22/19-1 Fiddich Triassic gas condensate discovery

(1984) flowed 15 mmcfg/d and ~1500 bcpd

• Fiddich discovery and low risk Fiddich East

segment – several 10’s mmboe combined

• Key issue – minimum economic reserve size and

availability of options for tieback

• Decision to drill well or drop after 2 years

UK 22/19a - Undeveloped field in Central North Sea

30

PA Resources Operator with 50%

Application group: PA Resources 50% (Operator),

First Oil & Gas Limited 50%.

Discovered resources on 22/19a

Page 31: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Summary and outlook

31

>> STRENGTHENED FINANCIAL POSITION

Capacity to finance development capex and planned amortisations

and well positioned for future transactions

>> EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL WITH UPSIDE POTENTIAL

Drilling activites on prioritised assets - Block I campaign in 2013

and 12/06 campaign possibly in 2013 or 2014

>> FOCUS ON ADDING LONG TERM PRODUCTION GROWTH

Focus on development of prioritised assets and increased farm out –

32 MMBOE with lower participation - expected net cash position in 2018

>> OPERATING CASH FLOW FROM PRODUCING FIELDS

Important cash flow with profitable barrels from the Aseng field

– foundation for growth

Page 32: Pa resources q4 2012 presentation_6 february 2013

Thank you! Q1

Q1 Report on 24 April 2013