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Stitching Scenarios
from Distributed FragmentsCrowdsourcing
Blockchain Futureshttp://bit.ly/1TYiuhH
Dr Wendy L Schultz16 April 2016
So. Blockchain. What’s that all about?
Blockchain – the basics
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/how-will-blockchain-technology-transform-financial-services/
William Mougayer, “Understanding the blockchain”, https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/understanding-the-blockchain
So. Blockchain. What’s that all about?
John Lanchester, “When Bitcoin Grows Up”, http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n08/john-lanchester/when-bitcoin-grows-up
Scenarios – uses + creation methods
Narratives
Causal Layered AnalysisScenario ArchetypesOrganisational Story-telling
AxesDeductive Scenarios: Uncertainties as Logics, Change-Theory-Driven
Tables
Scenario Parameter MatrixFAR Futures Table
Morphological AnalysisManoa ScenariosSystems-based
Conn
ecto
rs
Competition: Ambient Images of Futures
Set of all images of the future:impossible, possible, probable,
preferable
dystopias
visionsscenarios:downside
scenarios:PTE
(present trends extended)
scenarios: upside
utopiasnightmares
Images of the future are present inreligions, political ideologies, art,
movies,television, novels, stories, advertising –
and research
Business scenario use rarely takes competition
for the narrative space into account
Business scenario use rarely takes competition
for the narrative space into account
Archetypes, eg Manoa “Four Futures”
+ Natural England
Archetypes, eg Manoa “Four Futures”
+ Natural England
THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORKSharpe, Hodgson, Curry
Waves of Ambient Futures
How to collect ambient futures?
How to collect ambient futures?
Mosaic or ‘quilt’ scenario building
Mosaic or ‘quilt’ scenario building
Examples:IRAHSS transport, Grexit, blockchain
Blockchain futures narratives collector – the invitation to share on Sensemaker
Sensemaker intro page:http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh
http://merlion.sensemaker-suite.com/Collector/collector.gsp?
projectID=BlockchainFutures&language=en#Collector
Side benefit – operationalising Gartner’s ‘hype cycle’
RTs/scenarios > 1 = hypeRTs/scenarios < 1 = increasing maturity
So I’ll do it my own damn self.
… but all y’all are my only hope.
Contribute a mini-scenario yourself:http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh
or get Sensemaker Collector (red) appon Google or IOS app store,use activity code “blockchain”
Blockchain future applications –generating possibilities with Verge
Verge General Practice
Framework for Futures
Studies and Foresight
How might any of these people use blockchain?
DEFINEOpinion leaders in the news; scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revolutionaires
RELATE Businesses; unions; NGOs; international agencies; government agencies; families
CONNECT News sources; media organizations; celebrities; artists, musicians, poets, designers; IT experts
CREATE Investors; manufacturers; farmers; educators; inventors
CONSUME Retail shoppers; food and restaurant patrons; house owners; movie and book fans
DESTROYGarbage collectors, recyclers; vandals, terrorists; grey market and black market participants
Keep those stories coming – add as many as you like, as ideas about the evolving future of blockchain emerge.
Article on ‘blockchain futures’via Sensemaker Collectorby 30 April 2016