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THE SOUND HORIZONTHE SOUND HORIZON
SURVIVORSHIP BIAS(and the dangers of your own hype)
Dominic Pride D:Health Catalyst Partnering and Opportunity
9 June 2015
WHAT WE DO
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Create Services
•Define and size the opportunity •Develop strategy •Align with business goals
•Create business case •Support decision-‐making
•Formulate Go To Market approach
•Prepare for sales readiness
Develop Markets
•Envision future needs •Develop insights •Bring key journeys to life •Define & design service •Prototype and iterate •Manage launch build
•Transfer knowledge
OUR THINKING ON DIGITAL HEALTH
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Sign up for our “Flat White Papers” at bit.ly/coffeesup
WHO AM I?
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Refreshing Health Drink
MeYou
YOUR CURRENT PRESENTATION NEEDS
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You 2 Facts
10 Minutes
1 LolCat*
*Minimum Commitment
OUR DIGITAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVE
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DIGITAL HEALTHDigital Service Creation
Health Domain Expertise
We approach from service creation rather than health expertise
WE’VE SEEN SOME DIFFERENT THINGS
Source: Michael DeGusta: The Understatement http://ow.ly/aJixq Inflation and population adjusted Quoted in: Silicon Alley Insider Feb. 18, 2011 http://ow.ly/aJiC5
-64%
World’s largest recorded music market lost 2/3 of consumer spend since filesharing began.
1999: Napster
2003: iTunes
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BLACK SWAN EVENTS
Rare
“Unforeseen”
Catastrophic
THE ORIGIN OF THE “BLACK SWAN”
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Image: Allan Ramsay [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
“No amount of observations can allow the inference that all swans
are white.
But the observation of a single black swan is
sufficient to refute that conclusion.”
-‐ David Hume
THE ORIGIN OF THE “BLACK SWAN”
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Image: By Sarah Josephine Taleb (http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/pictures.htm) [Attribution], via Wikimedia Commons
“Rare events are always unexpected otherwise they would not occur.
Rare events exist precisely because they are
unexpected."
-‐ Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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BLACK SWAN EVENTS
Depend on magnitude of outcome
NOT
Frequency of occurrence
THE ACUTE
LUCKY RANDOMNESS
FOOL
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Survival through luck, not skill
Presenting with more injuries
Presenting with fewer injuries
Not presenting
at all
SURVIVORSHIP BIAS IN ACTION
IGNORE THE BIAS AT YOUR PERIL
• Over-‐optimism leads through not seeing failure
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• Belief in some special traits of survivors
CAUSATION vs.
CORRELATION
WE’RE SUCCESSFUL SO FAR BECAUSE….
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..we own the music rights
..we own the TV stations
..our drivers are licensed
..we own the real estate
..we’ve got banking licenses
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT RANDOMNESS
• Partner, learn and share
• #fail fast
• Don’t believe your own success story
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“The things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to
randomness.”
-‐ Nassim Nicholas Taleb
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT..
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Sign up for our “Flat White Papers” at bit.ly/coffeesup
THE SOUND HORIZONTHE SOUND HORIZON
Let’s talk!
[email protected] www.thesoundhorizon.com
@thesoundhorizon
Dominic Pride. The Sound Horizon 2009-‐2015. Some Rights Reserved.
COPYRIGHT AND ATTRIBUTION
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Here’s the small print. Please read before you get upset about anything.
