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DISRUPT YOUR BRAIN WITH DATA
LinkedIn, Medium & Twitter: @laurex
LAURE PARSONS SENIOR PRODUCT MANAGER
1. WHAT’S WRONG WITH OUR THINKING? 2. FOUR PRODUCT PROBLEMS & SOLUTIONS
• ALIGNMENT • ESTIMATION • VANITY • OPPORTUNITY
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SYSTEM 1 & SYSTEM 2
Acquiescence bias
Adaptive bias
Affect heuristic
Ambiguity effect
Anchoring
Anthropic bias
Apophenia
Attentional bias
Attitude polarization
Attribute substitution
Attributional bias
Availability heuristic
Bandwagon effect
Base rate fallacy
Bias blind spot
Bias of an estimator
Closed world assumption
Clustering illusion
Cognitive bias mitigation
Cognitive closure
Confirmation bias
Conjunction fallacy
Contrast effect
Cultural bias
Default standard unit bias
Deindividualisation
Delay discounting
Disconfirmation bias
Dr. Fox Effect
Dunning–Kruger effect
Egocentric bias
Emotional forecasting
Empathy gap
Endowment effect
Error management theory
Exaggeration
Experimenter effect
False-consensus effect
False-consensus effect
False memory syndrome
Familiarity heuristic
Forer effect
Framing effects
Functional fixedness
Fundamental attribution error
Gambler's fallacy
Generation effect
Group attribution error
Group-serving bias
Groupthink
Halo effect
Hindsight bias
Hostile media effect
Illusion of asymmetric insight
Illusion of control
Illusion of transparency
Illusory correlations
Illusory superiority
Illusion of control
Illusion of transparency
Illusory correlations
Illusory superiority
Impact bias
Implicit cognition
Ingroup bias
Inductive bias
Introspection illusion
Isolation effect
Just-world hypothesis
Lake Wobegon effect
Loss aversion
Magical thinking
Mere-exposure effect
Mindset
Minimization
Misinformation effect
Name–letter effect
Negativity bias
Negativity effect
Neglect of probability
Notational bias
Oedipus effect
Optimism bias
Pareidolia
Partisan effect
Pessimism bias
Physical attractiveness stereotype
Picture superiority effect
Planning fallacy
Positive illusions
Positivity effect
Primacy effect
Projection
Publication bias
Recency effect
Regression fallacy
Repetition bias
Response bias
Rosy retrospection
Selective perception
Self-deception
Self-serving bias
Serial position effect
Social comparison bias
Spacing effect
Status quo bias
Subject-expectancy effect
Subjective validation
Sunk cost fallacy
Trait ascription bias
True-believer syndrome
Univariate bias
Valence effect
Wishful thinking
Worse-than-average effect
Zeigarnik effect
COGNITIVE BIASES
Acquiescence bias
Adaptive bias
Affect heuristic
Ambiguity effect
Anchoring
Anthropic bias
Apophenia
Attentional bias
Attitude polarization
Attribute substitution
Attributional bias
Availability heuristic
Bandwagon effect
Base rate fallacy
Bias blind spot
Bias of an estimator
Closed world assumption
Clustering illusion
Cognitive bias mitigation
Cognitive closure
Confirmation bias
Conjunction fallacy
Contrast effect
Cultural bias
Default standard unit bias
Deindividualisation
Delay discounting
Disconfirmation bias
Dr. Fox Effect
Dunning–Kruger effect
Egocentric bias
Emotional forecasting
Empathy gap
Endowment effect
Error management theory
Exaggeration
Experimenter effect
False-consensus effect
False memory syndrome
Familiarity heuristic
Forer effect
Framing effects
Functional fixedness
Fundamental attribution error
Gambler's fallacy
Generation effect
Group attribution error
Group-serving bias
Groupthink
Halo effect
Hindsight bias
Hostile media effect
Illusion of asymmetric insight
Illusion of control
Illusion of transparency
Illusory correlations
Illusory superiority
Impact bias
Implicit cognition
Ingroup bias
Inductive bias
Introspection illusion
Isolation effect
Just-world hypothesis
Lake Wobegon effect
Loss aversion
Magical thinking
Mere-exposure effect
Mindset
Minimization
Misinformation effect
Name–letter effect
Negativity bias
Negativity effect
Neglect of probability
Notational bias
Oedipus effect
Optimism bias
Pareidolia
Partisan effect
Pessimism bias
Physical attractiveness stereotype
Picture superiority effect
Planning fallacy
Positive illusions
Positivity effect
Primacy effect
Projection
Publication bias
Recency effect
Regression fallacy
Repetition bias
Rosy retrospection
Selective perception
Self-deception
Self-serving bias
Serial position effect
Social comparison bias
Spacing effect
Status quo bias
Subject-expectancy effect
Subjective validation
Sunk cost fallacy
Trait ascription bias
True-believer syndrome
Univariate bias
Valence effect
Wishful thinking
Worse-than-average effect
Zeigarnik effect
DATA DATA DATA
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SOLUTION
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-Ronald Coase, Economist
TRUTHIf you torture the data long enough, it will confess.
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PROBLEM 1: ALIGNMENT
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ULTIMATE ATTRIBUTION ERROR
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STATUS QUO BIAS
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CONFIRMATION BIAS
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BANDWAGON EFFECT+ The False Consensus Effect
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SHARED INFORMATION BIAS
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SOLUTION
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OKRS
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DRE = (Total defects found in development [A]/ (Total defects found in development[A] + Defects found in production [B] )) x 100
TEAM POLLING
CUSTOMER DATA
PROBLEM 2: ESTIMATION
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OVERCONFIDENCE
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PLANNING FALLACY
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TIME-SAVING BIAS
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SOLUTION
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VELOCITY
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THROUGHPUT
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CYCLE TIMES
PROBLEM 3: VANITY
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CONFIRMATION BIAS
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ILLUSION OF CONTROL
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INFORMATION BIAS
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ILLUSORY CORRELATION
SOLUTION
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NO VANITY METRICS
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COUNTER-METRICS@laurex
PROBLEM 4: OPPORTUNITY
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IKEA EFFECT
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LOSS AVERSION+ The Sunk Cost Fallacy
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NARROW FRAMING
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CONFIRMATION BIAS
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SOLUTION
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USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended questions
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of “or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now and A/B test to see if your hypotheses are correct
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A/B TESTING
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MVP
RESOURCESThinking Fast & Slow - Daniel Kahneman
Decisive, Made to Stick- Chip & Dan Heath Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful - Gabriel Weinberg
OKRs: Getting Started Guide for Teams The Four Villains of Product Management
Four steps to more Decisive product decisions Gib Biddle on Netflix Product Strategy
Why This Opportunity Solution Tree is Changing the Way Product Teams Work -Teresa Torres
Spurious Correlations
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YOUR THOUGHTS?
