The Science of Making Better PredictionsPhuong NguyenDirector of Advertising

eBay’s credentials• One of the world’s biggest repositories of data

• One of the UK’s biggest media publishers:

19 millionunique users per

month.

6 billionad impressions

per month.

41%reach of UK adult

population.

Source: eBay internal data 2015.

20 minutes on ebay.co.ukBy the time I finish, the following will have been bought on eBay:

12 pushchairs

100 pairs of jeans

10 TVs

28 iPads/tablets

20 cars

Source: eBay internal data 2015.

Data drives insights on eBayOur data isn’t limited only to purchases.

Shopper insights

This forms an enviable list of observed not inferred shopping behaviours few if any can match.

Buy Bid

Search View

3 things we couldn’t have predicted

3 things we couldn’t have predicted

3 things we couldn’t have predicted

How can we deliver better predictions?

1.Validateefficacy of data Inferred vs observed

2. Understand the impact of data decay

Understand the impact of data decay Example: Length of shopping windows

50,000,000 transactions on eBay UK every month

Days Months versus

Source: eBay internal data 2015.

Consideration window varies markedly between products and categories

eBay Advertising Christmas Tracker is based on search data from ebay.co.uk in 2014.Peak windows of influence correspond to protracted peaks for searches within each category.

Home Furniture & DIY

Peak window of influence: 2nd November - 6th December

CAT

EGO

RIE

S

THE COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS

September October November December

September October November December

Christmas Day

Cameras & Photography

Peak window of influence: 2nd November - 13th December

Clothes, Shoes & Accessories

Peak window of influence: 12th October- 6th December

Computers,Tablets & Networking

Peak window of influence: 2nd November - 6th December

DVDs, Films & TV

Peak window of influence: 16th November - 24th December

Mobile Phones & Communication

Peak window of influence: 21st September - 15th November

Sound & Vision

Peak window of influence: 9th November - 6th December

Toys & Games

Peak window of influence: 5th October - 6th December

Video Games & Consoles

Peak window of influence: 16th November - 13th December

3. Use quality data to explore ‘hypothesis’ driven trends

Use quality data to explore ‘hypothesis’ driven trends Example: SanDisk

SanDisk wanted to sell more memory products but avoid wastage. eBay specifically targeted only those shoppers who:

• Were currently in-market for memory products

• Had recently bought a host device

Results • Sales tripled • Net promoter scores increased across all metrics studied • Broadcast level of audience reached (2.2m unique individuals) but all qualified leads

4. Dig deep into the data to reveal ‘serendipitous’ trends

Insight driven advertising solutions Example: The Co-operative Electrical

Shoppers of bakeware are incredibly diverse. The Co-operative Electrical wanted to target them with a campaign for kitchen appliances.

Bespoke home bakers segment targeted to coincide with the final of cult TV show The Great British Bake Off.

5. Productise your predictions

Predictive targeting case study: New Mums

High Street branch of chemistsCampaign

performance (CTR)

Baby category targeting: 0.05%Baby keyword targeting: 0.07%New Mums targeting: 0.11%

Summary1.Validateefficacyofdata (Inferred vs observed)

2. Understand the impact of data decay

3. Use quality data to explore ‘hypothesis’ driven trends

4. Dig deep into the data to reveal ‘serendipitous’ trends

5. Productise your predictions

Let’s hope predictive analytics can help us all make the right choice in the future

Thank you for your time@phuongster