Economic indicators april 2014 houston

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Economic Indicators

Last update 22.4.2014

| Economic Indicators |2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – April 2014

Europe:• Consensus April GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,5% for 2014 and improved by 0,1%point

to 1,8% for 2015.• The EU industrial confidence decreased slightly compared to last month while the consumer

confidence indicator continued its positive path from the last months also in March.• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell in March after four consecutive increases. The

crisis of the emerging economies and the events in Crimea are impacting confidence.• The Euro area recovery appears to be gaining traction: retail sales held firm during February,

unemployment came slightly down, consumer confidence expanded in March and PMIs were also upbeat.

US:• Consensus April GDP forecast for the US decreased again slightly from 2,8% to 2,7% for 2014.

Forecast for 2015 came down from 3,1% to now 3,0%.• The US economy made a soft start to 2014, with exports falling in February and winter storms

curbing production. On the other hand, forward-looking manufacturing indicators are robust.

Japan:• The April GDP growth forecast for Japan fell again from 1,4% to 1,3% for 2014 and remained

stable on 1,3% for 2015.• On April 1, 2014, Japan raised its consumption tax for the first time in 17 years in an attempt to

help consolidate the country’s hefty deficit. There are fears over how much the sales tax hike will impact short-term GDP growth and inflation.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Mar 14

'08

Q1

'08

Q2

'08

Q3

'08

Q4

'09

Q1

'09

Q2

'09

Q3

'09

Q4

'10

Q1

'10

Q2

'10

Q3

'10

Q4

'11

Q1

'11

Q2

11 Q

3

11 Q

4

12 Q

1

12 Q

2

12 Q

3

12 Q

4

13 Q

1

13 Q

2

13 Q

3

13 Q

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Mar 14

'08

Q1

'08

Q2

'08

Q3

'08

Q4

'09

Q1

'09

Q2

'09

Q3

'09

Q4

'10

Q1

'10

Q2

'10

Q3

'10

Q4

'11

Q1

'11

Q2

11 Q

311

Q4

12 Q

112

Q2

12 Q

312

Q4

13 Q

113

Q2

13 Q

313

Q4

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Apr 14

08/1

'08/

4'0

8/7 '0

09/1

'09/

4'0

9/7 '0

10/1

'10/

4'1

0/7 '1

11/1

'11/

4'1

1/7 1

12/1 12 12 12

13/1 13 13 13

14/1 14 14 14

15/1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

14 Mar; 0.6

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Apr 14

Mar 14; 0,5

Apr.14; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

July

08

Jan

09

Jul.

09

Jan

10

Jul.

10

Jan

11

July

11

Jan

12

Jul.

12

Jan

13

Jul.

13

Jan

14

Jul.

14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


Jan

08

May

08

Sep

.08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

.09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

.10

Jan

11

May

11

Sep

.11

Jan

12

May

12

Sep

.12

Jan

13

May

13

Sep

.13

Jan

14

May

14

Sep

.14

Jan

15

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Feb.14; 10.6

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


Ja

n 0

8A

pr.

08

Ju

l.0

8O

ct

08

Ja

n 0

9A

pr.

09

Ju

ly 0

9O

ct

09

Ja

n 1

0A

pr.

10

Ju

l.1

0O

ct

10

Ja

n 1

1A

pr.

11

Ju

l.1

1O

ct

11

Ja

n 1

2A

pr.

12

Ju

l.1

2O

ct

12

Ja

n 1

3A

pr.

13

Ju

l.1

3O

ct

13

Ja

n 1

4A

pr.

14

Ju

l.1

4O

ct

14

Ja

n 1

5

-40-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

10

Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased slightly in March, but the industry remains in a fairly positive mood.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 continued its positive path in March. J

an

08

Ap

r.0

8J

ul.

08

Oc

t 0

8J

an

09

Ap

r.0

9J

uly

0

9O

ct

09

Ja

n 1

0A

pr.

10

Ju

l.1

0O

ct

10

Ja

n 1

1A

pr.

11

Ju

l.1

1O

ct

11

Ja

n 1

2A

pr.

12

Ju

l.1

2O

ct

12

Ja

n 1

3A

pr.

13

Ju

l.1

3O

ct

13

Ja

n 1

4A

pr.

14

Ju

l.1

4O

ct

14

Ja

n 1

5-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat Feb 14

04

Q1

04

Q3

05

Q1

05

Q3

06

Q1

06

Q3

07

Q1 0

08

Q1 0

09

Q1 0

10

Q1 1

11

Q1 1

12

Q1

12

Q3

13

Q1

13

Q3

14

Q1

14

Q3

60

65

70

75

80

85

79.4

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14

The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14

The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Apr 14


Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Apr 14

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

.08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

.09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

.10

Jan

11

May

11

Sep

.11

Jan

12

May

12

Sep

.12

Jan

13

May

13

Sep

.13

Jan

14

May

14

Sep

.14

Jan

15

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

.08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

.09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

.10

Jan

11

May

11

Sep

.11

Jan

12

May

12

Sep

.12

Jan

13

May

13

Sep

.13

Jan

14

May

14

Sep

.14

Jan

15

80859095

100105110115120125

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in March after four successive increases. Companies expressed far less confidence in future business developments, but were more satisfied with their current business situation. The crisis of the emerging economies and the events in Crimea are impacting the confidence of German firms.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation

Source: IFO Apr 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in March after four successive increases. Companies expressed far less confidence in future business developments, but were more satisfied with their current business situation. The crisis of the emerging economies and the events in Crimea are impacting the confidence of German firms.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry

Source: IFO Apr 14, bundesverband druck und medien

Ja

n 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Se

p.0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Se

p.0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Se

p.1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Se

p.1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Se

p.1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ma

y 1

3

Se

p.1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ma

y 1

4

Se

p.1

4

Ja

n 1

5

-60-50-40-30-20-10

01020

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated slightly from 0 to -3 in March.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – March 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry deteriorated by 9%points and only reached 2% in March.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – remains clouded, reaching -3% after 0% in the previous month.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative at -8% after -11% in the previous month.

Source: IFO Apr 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth – Zenith 4/14 Press Release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14


Regional Advertising Development – Zenith 4/14 Press Release



Global Advertising Market – Zenith 4/14 Press Release



Advertising by medium – Zenith 4/14 Press Release


Marketing

Economic indicators april 2014 houston