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Gary Klein's book is a book every planner should read. It is an academic but surprisingly useful look at how insights are developed. If you don't have time here are the cliff's notes.
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S E E I N G W H AT O T H E R S D O N ’ T T H E R E M A R K A B L E W AY S W E G A I N I N S I G H T S
B R I E F S U M M A R Y O F G A R Y K L E I N ’ S
1 9 2 6 4 S TA G E M O D E L
G R A H A M W A L L A S T R A D I T I O N A L M O D E L F O R
C O N T E X T
This is a look at two theories about how we gain insight taken from Gary Klein’s book. This serves as
a practical guide to understanding insight.
2 0 1 3 3 PAT H M O D E L G A R Y K L E I N P R O P O S E D M O D E L R E S E A R C H P S Y C H O L O G I S T S T U D Y I N G D E C I S I O N M A K I N G
– G A R Y K L E I N
“Insights shift us toward a new story, a new set of beliefs that are more accurate, more comprehensive, and more useful.”
W H AT D O I N S I G H T S D O ?
G R A H A M WA L L A S
T H E F I R S T M O D E R N A C C O U N T O F I N S I G H T
!4 S TA G E S O F C O N T R O L
From The Art of Thought (1926)
1. Preparation - examine the problem
2. Incubation - seek out mental relaxation and stop thinking about the problem
3. Illumination - the result of a train of unconscious associations
4. Validation
G A R Y K L E I N
A U T H O R O F S E E I N G W H AT O T H E R S D O N ’ T
• Collected 120 different stories of insight
• Coded each with similar factors and proposed a three path model
• Feels the Wallas model helped foster the idea of insight as magic
* S P O I L E R A L E R T : I N S I G H T S A R E N ’ T M A G I C
W H E R E I N S I G H T S C O M E F R O MT H E T H R E E PA T H M O D E L O F I N S I G H T
C O N N E C T I O N C O I N C I D E N C E C U R I O S I T Y:
S P O T A N I M P L I C A T I O N
C O N T R A D I C T I O N F I N D A N I N C O N S I S T E N C Y
C R E AT I V E D E S P E R AT I O N
E S C A P E A N I M PA S S E
U S E W E A K A N C H O R T O R E B U I L D T H E
S T O R Y
A D D N E W A N C H O R
D I S C A R D A W E A K
A N C H O R
C H A N G E S I N H O W W E
U N D E R S TA N D A C T | S E E | F E E L | D E S I R E
T R I G G E R
A C T I V I T Y
Change the story that anchors your thinking
O U T C O M E
T H E M O T H E R O F A L L S C I E N T I F I C I N S I G H T S
C O N N E C T I O N PA T H
D A R W I N & W A L L A C E
• both of these men were naturalists exploring different regions of the world
• Darwin exploring the Galapagos, Patagonia & Cape Verde amongst others
• Wallace exploring the Malay Archipelago
• both read An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Malthus
• both applied the idea of population growth dependent on competition for resources to explain species variation
• Their insight - natural selection
C O N N E C T I O N PAT H
The connection path was by far the most dominant path to insight. However only 45 of the cases
codified used connections alone. An additional 53 cases used connection + one other path to insight.
C O N N E C T I O N PAT H
R E A D H I S B O O K F O R M O R E E X A M P L E S O F I N S I G H T G A I N E D T H R O U G H T H E C O N N E C T I O N PAT H
T H E B A T T L E O F TA R A N T O A L I S O N G O P N I K - B R O C C O L I & G O L D F I S H
L E R O Y B U T L E R & T H E S U P E R B O W L A L E X A N D E R F L E M M I N G & P E N I C I L L I N
W I L H E L M R O E N T G E N & X - R A Y S R U S S E L O H L & T R A N S I S T O R S
J O C E LY N B E L L B U R N E L L & P U L S A R S
C O N N E C T I O N PAT H
C H O L E R A & T H E B R O A D S T. P U M P
C O N T R A D I C T I O N PA T H
J O H N S N O W
• The existing theory is that cholera was spread in the air- the Miasma theory
• John snow saw a few contradictions
• there was no impact on patient’s lungs
• patients in the same room did not get it
• His insight was that it was spread by what people ate or drank
• An outbreak of cases seem to surround the Broad St. Pump
• However, workers at a local brewery didn’t get cholera even though they were breathing the same air
• Later it was found the Broad St. Pump had a cesspool that ran into some of the cracks in its pipes.
N O T T H AT O N E
T H AT O N E
C O N T R A D I C T I O N PAT H
Contradiction insights showed up in 38% of the cases making it the second most common path to
insight, after the connections pathway.
C O N T R A D I C T I O N PAT H
R E A D H I S B O O K F O R M O R E E X A M P L E S O F I N S I G H T G A I N E D T H R O U G H T H E C O N T R A D I C T I O N PAT H
S T E V E E I S M A N & S U B P R I M E M O R T G A G E S J O H N PA U L S O N & T H E R E A L E S TA T E B U B B L E
M I C H E L B U R R Y ’ S H E D G E F U N D G R E G L I P P M A N N A N D M O R T G A G E D E FA U LT R A T E S
G E N E PA R K A T A I G M E R E D I T H W H I T N E Y & T H E C O L L A P S E O F B E A R S T E R N S
A L B E R T E I N S T E I N & T H E T H E O R Y O F R E L A T I V I T Y
C O N T R A D I C T I O N PAT H
F I G H T I N G F I R E W I T H F I R E
C R E A T I V E D E S P E R A T I O N PA T H
W A G N E R D O D G E
• 12 of 15 smoke jumpers were killed in a fire after being trapped by an unexpected collision of fire and wind in Mann Gulch
• A fire on an opposite slope jumped sides putting the smoke jumpers in danger
• Dodge had four beliefs to anchor his understanding
• A steep uphill slope that favors fire over runners
• Fire behind picking up speed
• Safety ahead - a rocky ridge would be safe (two people made it to the ridge)
• Heavy dry grass fueling the fire
• Dodge started a fire in front of him and took refuge in its ashes - no one else on the team understood what he was doing he didn’t have time to explain the idea of an “escape fire”
C R E A T I V E D E S P E R A T I O N PA T H
The least common path to insight from this work included creative desperation in 25% of the cases
often in combination with another path.
C R E A T I V E D E S P E R A T I O N PA T H
R E A D H I S B O O K F O R M O R E E X A M P L E S O F I N S I G H T G A I N E D T H R O U G H T H E C R E AT I V E D E S P E R AT I O N PAT H
A R O N R A L S T O N T R A P P E D B Y A B O U L D E R C H E R Y L C A I N & T I M E C A R D S
D A V I D C H A R LT O N & T H E G L A S S C O A T I N G S N A P O L E O N A T T O U L O N
C R E A T I V E D E S P E R A T I O N PA T H
R E V I S I T I N G W A L L A S 4 S T E P M O D E L
1. Preparation
In 18% of Klein’s cases insights were accidental and had no preparation.
2. Incubation
Only 5 of the cases clearly involved incubation and the creative desperation path has no time for incubation to take place. In 39% of cases incubation was impossible.
3. Illumination
56% of cases included an epiphany the other 44% were gradual. The coincidence path requires seeing an anomaly several times and testing hypotheses before coming to a conclusion
4. Verification
Still seems like a good idea.
K N O W T H E PAT H Y O U ’ R E O NM I N D S E T S T H A T H E L P D E L I V E R I N S I G H T
C O N N E C T I O N C O I N C I D E N C E C U R I O S I T Y:
S P O T A N I M P L I C A T I O N
C O N T R A D I C T I O N F I N D A N I N C O N S I S T E N C Y
C R E AT I V E D E S P E R AT I O N
E S C A P E A N I M PA S S E
U S E W E A K A N C H O R T O R E B U I L D T H E
S T O R Y
A D D N E W A N C H O R
D I S C A R D A W E A K
A N C H O R
C H A N G E S I N H O W W E
U N D E R S TA N D A C T | S E E | F E E L | D E S I R E
• Is insight about breaking out of an impasse? Yes, for the creative desperation path, but not the others.
• Does incubation help? Maybe in the contradiction or connection paths but it is impossible on the creative desperation path.
• Does experience get in the way? Yes on the creative desperation path, but not on others.
• Should we keep an open mind? Yes, on the connection and creative desperation paths, but not on the contradiction path.
• Should we be skeptical? Yes, for the contradiction path, but not for the others.
• Is insight about filling a gap? Yes, on the connection path, but not the others.
H O W T O I N C R E A S E P E R F O R M A N C E
P E R F O R M A N C E I M P R O V E M E N T S
G R O W T H
C O N T R O L
Errors & Uncertainty
Insights
Problem solving approaches (sigma six)
Managers of algorithms
Innovation approaches (design thinking)
masters of heuristics
– G A R Y K L I E N
“When we put too much energy into eliminating mistakes, we’re less likely to gain insights.”
“ T W I N ” S T U D Y F I N D I N G S
H O W T O D I S C O V E R A N I N S I G H T W I T H T H E S A M E A M O U N T O F I N F O R M AT I O N A S O T H E R S
G R I P P E D B Y F L AW E D B E L I E F S
L A C K O F E X P E R I E N C E
PA S S I V E S TA N C E
C O N C R E T E R E A S O N I N G
E S C A P E D F I X AT I O N O N F L AW E D B E L I E F S
E X P E R I E N C E
A C T I V E S TA N C E
P L AY F U L R E A S O N I N G
N O I N S I G H T G A I N E D I N S I G H T
– G A R Y K L I E N
“The magic of insights stems from the force for noticing connections, coincidences, and
curiosities; the force for detecting contradictions; and the force of creativity
unleashed by desperation. That magic lives inside us, stirring restlessly.”