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KEY TRENDS FOR E-COMMERCE 2015Wijnand JongenChairman Executive Committee Ecommerce EuropeCEO Thuiswinkel.org
Copenhagen, October 9, 2014
B2C E-commerce in Europe
• Representing 25.000+ Europe’s online merchants
• Selling B2C goods and services
• A € 363 bn ($ 496.9 bn) market
• 15+ national e-commerce associations
Who Do We Represent?
© Ecommerce Europe Page: 2www.ecommerce-europe.eu
© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Ecommerce Europe proposes an integrated pan European perspective on 5 key policy areas:
1. Internet security & privacy2. Consumer rights3. E-payments4. Tax Issues5. E-logistics
1. Public Affairs
Page: 3
Page: 4© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Round Tables2015
• Milan• Madrid• Dublin• London• Amsterdam• Poznan
• Helsinki• Copenhagen• Paris• Berlin
2. Networking
Page: 4
Round Tables, Pre-conferences, GES, National Association Events
In cooperation with:
© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
3. Research: B2C E-commerce Reports
Page: 5
Reports include Country Profiles, Trends and 30+ Infographics
For free light version downloads of reports: [email protected]
Powered by:In cooperation with:
Page: 6© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
4. Ecommerce Europe Trustmark
Page: 6
In preparation, to be launched in 2015
KEY B2C E-COMMERCE FIGURESOf Goods And Services
2013 Key B2C E-commerce Data of Goods and Services at a Glance
Top 10 e-commerce countries in turnover (EUR billion)
USA € 315.4China € 247.3*
UK € 107.1Japan € 81.3Germany € 63.4France € 51.1Australia € 26.9Canada € 18.0Russia € 15.5S. Korea € 15.2* B2C & C2C goods & services, excluding insurances
7,233 millionpeople live in the world
2,668 millionpeople use the Internet
1,181 millionpeople are e-shoppers
16%
37%
100%€ 1,173.5 bnTurnover E-commerceGoods & Services
“1,878 million estimated social media users”
© Ecommerce Europe June 2014www.ecommerce-europe.eu
info: [email protected] reports: [email protected]
Ecommerce Europe Rue de Trèves 59-61 | B-1000 Brussels | Belgium Tel: +32 (0) 2 502 31 34
Twitter: @Ecommerce_eu
Global
Global€1,173.5 bn +13.6%Total B2C e-sales 2013 of goods and services
1
2 3
73.4% Share of Internet users accessing the web througha mobile device*
*Average worldwide
Cross-border B2C E- commerce
Most popular countries:USA 45%UK 37%China / HK 26%Canada 18%Australia 16%Germany 14%
Asia-PacificEuropeNorth AmericaLatin AmericaMENAAfricaOthers
€ 406.1 bn€ 363.1 bn€ 333.5 bn€ 37.9 bn€ 11.9 bn€ 2.3 bn€ 18.7 bn
+16.7%+16.3%+06.0%+24.6%+32.6%+11.9%+10.8%
GOMSEC
GlobalOnlineMeasurementStandard B2CE-Commerce
“94 million consumers buycross-border and this number is expected to grow in 2014”
Estimated share of online goods in total retail of goods
4.2%
‘Global B2C E-commerce report will be published in Fall 2014’
2013 Key B2C E-commerce Data of Goods and Services at a Glance
;
Top 5 mature e-commerce countries in turnover (million)UK € 107,157Germany € 63,400 France € 51,100Austria € 10,970Netherlands € 10,583
Top emerging countriesRussia € 15,500Spain € 14,414Italy € 11,268Poland € 5,225
816 millionpeople live in Europe
565 millionpeople use the Internet
264 millionpeople are e-shoppers
1
2 3
2, , +jobs directly or indirectly via e-commerce
54% Goods
46% Services
32%
69%
100% € 363.1 bnTurnover E-commerceGoods & Services
645,000+estimated online businesses
3.7 billion+number of parcels annually (f)
Estimated share of online goods in total retail of goods
5.7%
“443 million social media users”
Europe
WestCentralSouthNorthEast
€ 177.7 bn€ 93.3 bn€ 40.8 bn€ 31.9 bn€ 19.3 bn
+12.4%+22.7%+18.9%+12.7%+47.3%
2.2% eGDPEurope€ 363.1 bn 16.3%EU28€ 317.9 bn 14.7%
€ 16.4 trn GDP 2013
© Ecommerce Europe June 2014www.ecommerce-europe.eu
info: [email protected] reports: [email protected]
Rue de Trèves 59-61|B-1000 Brussels |Belgium Tel: +32 (0) 2 502 31 34
Twitter: @Ecommerce_eu
Powered by:
In cooperation with:
Free download at:https://www.ecommerce-europe.eu/facts-figures/free-downloads
© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Free downloads!
Page: 16
Powered by:
In cooperation with:
Free light version downloads: [email protected]
The Dutch Landscape
• Representing 2.200+ Dutch online merchants
• A € 13,5 bn market (2014), 110 million purchases
• 18% online share of total spending (product & services)
* 10% of products
* 66% of services
• Growth percentages:
* 8% for 2014, 17% for product, -4% for stores
18
Shopping2020 Research
“How do consumers shop online in 2020 and which actions need to be undertaken on an
national, sector and company level upon that Dutch B2C selling companies can act on this
successfully, nationally, within Europe and globally.”
19
Online Will Explode, According To 460 Experts
Online, 20%
Offline, 80%
2013
Online, 28%
Offline, 72%
2017
Online, 36%
Offline, 64%
2020
Bron: GfK Expertonderzoek, September 2013 onder 444 Experts
20
52% Of Dutch Consumers Expect To Do Shopping Online in 2020
T
2020
Online Offline
Bron: GfK Consumentenonderzoek, November 2013 onder 12.0000 Consumenten
5 MEGATRENDS FOR THE FUTURE
Source: iStock
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu Page: 22
Megatrend 1
MEGATREND 1: CONVERGENCE OF ALL CHANNELS
23© GfK 2014 | Remaining engaged | Global E-Commerce Summit
As Countries Reach Parity In Terms Of Online Access We Should Expect To See This Number Rise
GfK panelmarket sales full year 2013
Sales value [%] [01-12/2013]
19%
81%
GB
73.8% 76.1%
IT
92.3%
BE PTES
91.1% 93.2% 97.1%
AT
83.1%82.0%
FRNL CH
79.0%77.4%
DE
2 1 4 3 5Total Sales Ranking Internet
Traditional Sales
Internet Sales
23.9% 22.6% 6.8%8.9% 7.7%18.0% 16.9%21.0%26.2%2.9%
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Who Is Leading The Mobile Revolution?
Page: 24
Megatrend 1: Convergence of Channels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe Asia Africa Oceania Global% o
f Pa
ge V
iew
s C
om
ing
fro
mM
ob
ile
Dev
ices
Mobile Usage as % of Web Usage, by Region, 5/14
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
All The Way To Instant And Blended Commerce
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Megatrend 1: Convergence of Channels
Source: iStock
MEGATREND 2: THE INTERNET OF THINGS
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Wearables for personal benefit
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Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Products will become digital
Page: 30
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Products will also become touchpoints
Page: 31
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Shoes coach you to do better..
Page: 32
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Big Data Will Tell It All
Page: 33
Megatrend 2
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Our Smartphone Will Help Us Get Better
Page: 34
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Diaper Tells You When It Needs Changing
Page: 36
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Disney’s Magic Band offer access to..
Page: 37
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
How 3D Printing Will Change The World
Page: 39
A New Digital Revolution In Itself
Less (local) stock
Production of lighter &
‘impossible’ products
Quicker design & production
process
Mass one-on-one
production
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
And Be Disruptive to a lot of Industries
Page: 40
MEGATREND 3: THE SUPER CONSUMER“There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from the chairman on down,simply by spending his money somewhere else...”
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Super Consumer Is Almighty
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Megatrend 3
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu Page: 43
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
1 Thing Remains: Great Customer Experience
Page: 44
Megatrend 3: The Super Consumer
MEGATREND 4: RE-ECONOMY“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Henri Ford
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Major Developments:
•Peer-to-Peer
• The Shared Economy
• The Sustainable Economy
Re-economy
Page: 46
Megatrend 4
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Peer2Peer Economy
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Megatrend 4: Re-economy
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Why Buy When You Can Share?
Page: 49
Megatrend 4: Re-economy
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Why Lend At A Bank..?
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Megatrends 4: Re-economy
MEGATREND 5: IT’S A GLOBAL COMPETION
“Start with the customer and work backwards.“ Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Cross Border E-commerce is Growing Rapidly
Page: 55SOURCE: EC (2013) Consumer Attitudes Towards Cross Border Trade and Consumer Protection
15
10
78
7
+21% p.y.
86
444
+19% p.y.
20122011201020092008
Consumers that bought products online outside of their own country in the last 12 months
Within the EU
Outside of the EU
Percentage
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
With UK, Germany and France in The Lead
Page: 56
With regard to cross-border e-commerce
SOURCE: Civic Consulting (2013); “Consumer market study on the functioning of eCommerce” in EC (2012) Bringing eCommerce benefits to customers
In which countries did you buy products/services online (%, 2013)
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
U.K.
Total
13
20
48
40
29
20
29
19
21
41
28
34
…
24
…
2
3
4
1
31
4
4
3
1
2
3
2
8
4
3
2
3
3
5
…
5
3
4
8
3
6
4
Italy
4
38
8
7
3
11
4
5
…
3
2
3
6
6
Nether-lands
2
0
1
1
1
3
2
0
2
0
0
2
3
2
Poland
1
2
2
2
5
4
7
2
4
21
…
3
8
5
Spain
1
1
22
22
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
…
2
2
SwedenUnited KingdomAustria
2
…
1
2
15
4
4
19
15
1
5
2
3
5
Belgium
0
0
…
5
2
4
2
1
2
1
2
15
2
2
Denmark
90
26
32
38
41
…
36
78
43
18
22
32
21
27
GermanyFrance
5
42
5
5
…
9
26
43
11
16
27
9
17
14
Country of origin
Country where products/services were purchased Percentage > 10%
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Americans Concur the World
Page: 58
And control more and more of the retail infrastructure
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Amazon Is Still Leading The Way, Setting The Standard
Page: 59
With selection, ‘the everything store’, lowest prices, best convenience
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
But Some Cracks Are Appearing..
Page: 60
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
And New Competitors Are On The Rise
Page: 61
How long will it take for Google Shopping to add the BUY button?
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Chinese Are Here To Stay!
Page: 62
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
And They Have A Lot of Cash At Hand
Page: 63
Which is not intended for the homemarket
64
Why Alibaba May Beat Amazon?At it’s IPO Alibaba is valued at $ 231 billion, more than Amazon ($153) and eBay ($65) together
• It owns 60+% of the Chinese market.• It’s home market outgrows (40%) the US
market (14%) in 2016.• It makes a profit (40%) while Amazon
does not (2%), as it does not invest in technolgy (Kindle) infrastructure (warehousing).
• It’s commission is 75% lower than that of eBay & Amazon.
• It’s suppliers are the actual producers (Amazon 3P are retailers).
• It owns Alipay (= Paypal) and can sell directly on the local Twitter
• It can offer products at a much lower cost as a result.
• Mobile rules in china (35% of traffic vs 15% in USA and 12% in Europe)
Bold expectations are that Amazon will focus on the customer experience as it controls the entire journey, while Alibaba will focus on price. Question remains who will buy eBay?
66
Will Market Places Rule The World In 2020?The ‘over everything strategy’ results in conversion ratio’s up to 20%
# of countries active Growth 2013
13 22%
1*(just bought US 11Main)
50%
13 45%
The 3rd party strategy is a cash cow; as sales growth their costs remain the same
Market share
2 – 24%
55 – 60%
20 – 30%
* Although Alibaba offers an international site it is not focused on a specifica market
FINAL CONCLUSIONSAbraham Lincoln — 'The best way to predict your future is to create it'
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
1. Unique, exclusive offering2. Become content owner3. Build your community4 Work together5. Seamless fulfillment6. Be authentic7. Work small improvements8. Watch and learn from Amazon9. Embrace your people10.Provide leadership.
Page: 72
10 Tips To Survice Amazon. And Alibaba
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
2020: We’re Moving Into A New Era
Page: 78
3D Printing
BIG DATA
Re-Economy
Shared Economy
Internet of Things
Anyway: Change Ahead!
GlobalizationSustainable Economy
Changing Consumer Behavior
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Finally: It’s All About Innovation, Talent And People
Page: 79
Not the strongest but the most adaptable survive
!
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Future is Yours..
Page: 80
There is a business case for everyone!
© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
The Future Is Yours!
Page: 81
There’s a business case for everyone
Source: Estimote iBeacon (http://youtu.be/sUIqfjpInxY)
