November 6th, 2012

Electoral Map 2012

Polling Accuracy

The two most accurate pollsters in 2008 were Rasmussen and PEW (tied).

FiveThirtyEight ranked in the top 5. All three calculated the popular vote

breakdown to be: Obama 52% / McCain 46% (± fractions of a percentage point).

In 2004, the RCP only missed WI and in 2008, it only missed IN and NC, the two closest states won by Obama.

Combined, the state averages were off by just 2.8 points in 2008 and 1.9 points in 2004 – not perfect, but provide somewhat reliable predictions for 2012.

Rather than rely on one poll alone such as ABC/Fox, RCP averages many polls together for more accurate results.

Prediction: Romney (200)

Colorado (9) Active Registered Voter

Stats: 32% D, 34% R, 34% U The number of

unaffiliated voters in CO has increased by 225,000 since 2008, making it a closer race for each candidate

Early voter reg. stats: 37% R, 35% D

Voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 elections

Entrepreneurial, wealthy state

Unemployment rate above national average

Prediction: Romney (229)

Florida (29) Active Reg. Voter Stats:

41% D, 36% R, 23% U 67% white, 13.5% Latino,

13.3% black Jewish pop. account for

8% of likely voters in FL According to the AJC,

Jewish support for Obama in FL has dropped from 76% to 69%, a favorable shift for Romney

Historically, Latino voter turnout has been low Estimated Romney gets 61% of white vote

Was a red state in 4 of the last 6 elections

Prediction: Obama (207)

Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections

Unemployment rate below the national average

Des Moines Register poll on Nov. 3rd confirms that Obama is leading in IA by +5

The state that propelled him out of the caucuses and toward the Democratic nomination

Iowa (6)

Prediction: Obama (223)

Leaning Obama In a poll by the

Detroit Free Press, 50% of respondents said that the auto bailout was a deciding factor in their vote. Obama won the support of 67% of those votes

An Obama campaign ad showed Romney’s article from 2008 in the NY Times titled “Let Detroit go Bankrupt”

Michigan (16)

Prediction: Obama (229)

Nevada (6) RCP margin of error is

about 3% which means that Obama’s support actually ranges between 47.2% and 53.2%

Frequently a swing state; last 6 elections it was 3x blue/3x red

Large % registered voters – Independent

54% white, 27% Hispanic, 9% black

Booming population 3rd most urban state

in terms of pop.

New Hampshire (4)

Population 94.6% white (one of the nation’s lowest minority-populated states)

30% R, 29% D, 40% U 54% of women favor

Obama (52% of likely voters)

56% of men favor Romney (48% likely voters)

51% of voters aged 50+ favor Obama (54% likely voters)

Prediction: Obama (233)

North Carolina (15)

Prediction: Romney (244)

Leaning Romney Since 1980, it’s voted

red (except for 2008) According to

Rasmussen Reports, male voters in NC prefer Romney by 66% to 31%, female voters support Obama 58% to 40%

93% of NC Reps and 22% of NC Dems favor Romney. 77% NC Dems favor Obama

Prediction: Obama (251)

Has gone with the winner in every election since 1964

The largest newspaper in OH, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which has endorsed the winner in all but two elections since 1964, endorsed Obama

Unemployment rate below the national avg. - believes he deserves a second chance

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

Prediction: Obama (264)

Voted Republican in every election since 1968, except for 2008

Fairfax County support: In 2008, Obama won 60% of the vote as opposed to McCain’s 39% (due to Republican stance on businesses – most jobs in Fairfax are from gov’t contractors

Large minority pop., young voters, and suburban independents

Prediction: Obama (274)

Democratic in the last 6 elections

Unemployment rate below the national average

Despite the fact that Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, has been a Republican representative of WI since 1999, Obama is winning the state by generous margins

Obama has held the lead for the entire month of October

Wisconsin (10)

Pennsylvania (20)

Prediction: Obama (294)

Since 1992, PA has voted Democratic

In the last 60 years, the candidate who carried the state has also won the national popular vote in every election but two.

Philadelphia suburbs is left-leaning, driven by women Republicans are linked with opposition to abortion /same-sex marriage.

Electoral College Map Prediction

Obama Wins Re-Election

WinnerLoser