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12 August 2010: Presentation by Kantar Worldpanel to National Consumer Agency of Irish grocery market trends
Citation preview
© Kantar Worldpanel
A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 13 June 2010 – A Presentation to the National Consumer Agency
© Kantar Worldpanel
Headlines
– The value of the total grocery market has declined by 5.7% in the year to 13 June 2010, dropping to under €9 billion for the last 52 weeks
– However the decline in the market is slowing, with a 2.9% decrease for the 4 week period ending 13 June 2010 compared with same period in 2009.
– Overall the market is likely to move into growth during August driven by 2 factors
– This time last year was particularly tough, so this is now annualising
– Evidence of some price increases beginning to come through
– Overall shoppers are maintaining the number of trips but are spending 4.4% less per trip, spending €21.91 per trip.
– Budget products are the only products tier showing volume growth.
© Kantar Worldpanel
3
The total grocery market has lost over €527 million this year, declining by 5.7%
52 we €000’s 12 we €000’s
+1.2% -5.7%
-1.5% -4.4%
© Kantar Worldpanel
How is the total grocery market performing? The decline in the market is slowing which is particularly evident in a 4 w/e period.
720,969
683,340
663,855
4 w/e 15 JUN 08 4 w/e 14 JUN 09 4 w/e 13 JUN 10
4 we €000’s
-5.2%
-2.9%
© Kantar Worldpanel
5
While the market is still underperforming on shorter term, the rate of value decline is slowing down since the start of the year.
% Value Growth in Total Grocery
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private label maintains share at a third of total market value and 35% of volume
6
Private Label Share of Grocery
© Kantar Worldpanel
Inflation is beginning to come back into the grocery sector as 10% more markets are experiencing inflation compared with the Christmas 2009-10 period
7
© Kantar Worldpanel
The overall level of deflation within the total Grocery market has eased to -2.5% in 12 w/e June 2010
8
CSO data based on monthly surveyKWP data based on 12-weekly rolling trend
CSO Food & Beverage Inflation
© Kantar Worldpanel
9
So what is the effect on shopper behaviour?
Shoppers maintained the number of trips but spent 4.4% less each time
© Kantar Worldpanel
The number of markets where shoppers are choosing more expensive or non-promoted products is on the increase – however, this is largely a result of ‘extreme’ trading down this time last year
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
1111
Budget products are still the only product tier that shows volume growth, suggesting that trading down still is important in driving volume, but does not affect value to the same extent as last year
Change in Volume sales Share of Volume Sales
© Kantar Worldpanel
8.1 81.4 1.47.4 7.14.4 4.2
25.7 26.7
47.8 47.7
5.1 5
0102030405060708090
100
52 w/e 14Jun 09
52 w/e 13Jun 10
Value share Value growth
-5.7
-7.9
-7.7
-8.9
-11.5
-2.1
-5.9
-7.4
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
TOTAL RST
TOTAL ALCOHOL
TOTAL HEALTHCARE
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare)
TOTAL TOILETRIES
AMBIENT GROCERIES
TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED
FROZEN
Which sector is driving market growth annually? Total Outlets52 w/e 13 June 2010… All categories are declining over the past year – toiletries have shown the most decline while ambient groceries decline slower than the market average.
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which sector is driving market growth quarterly? Total Outlets12 w/e 13 June 2010… Like on an annual basis all categories are showing decline, however the decline among frozen, and fresh and chilled slows on a 12 w/e basis. The total RST decline is also slowing from -5.7% to -4.4% 12 w/e 13 June 10
7.3 7.21.4 1.47 6.94.4 4.3
25.9 26.4
48.8 48.6
5.1 5.2
0102030405060708090
100
12 w/e 14Jun 09
12 w/e 13Jun 10
Value share Value growth
-4.4
-5.6
-6.8
-6.5
-7
-2.5
-4.9
-3
-10 -5 0
TOTAL RST
TOTAL ALCOHOL
TOTAL HEALTHCARE
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare)
TOTAL TOILETRIES
AMBIENT GROCERIES
TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED
FROZEN
© Kantar Worldpanel
Brief Overview of UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel
Market Growth & InflationSmall upturn in market growth as inflation remains at 1.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
13
Ju
l 08
10
Au
g 0
8
07
Se
p 0
8
05
Oct
08
02
No
v 0
8
30
No
v 0
8
28
De
c 0
8
25
Ja
n 0
9
22
Fe
b 0
9
22
Ma
r 0
9
19
Ap
r 0
9
17
Ma
y 0
9
14
Ju
n 0
9
12
Ju
l 09
09
Au
g 0
9
06
Se
p 0
9
04
Oct
09
01
No
v 0
9
29
No
v 0
9
27
De
c 0
9
24
Ja
n 1
0
21
Fe
b 1
0
21
Ma
r 1
0
18
Ap
r 1
0
16
Ma
y 1
0
13
Ju
n 1
0
% c
ha
ng
e
12 we growth 12 we inflationGrocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Coping StrategiesIncreased volume is the key contributor to the gap
1.5
1.9
2.3
-1.3
-0.1
0.0
Inflation HH VolumeChange
Store Choice PromotionChoice
Product Choice HH SpendChange
con
trib
utio
n t
o c
ha
ng
e %
pts
-
Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)
© Kantar Worldpanel
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3% 1
8 M
ay
08
15
Ju
n 0
8
13
Ju
l 08
10
Au
g 0
8
07
Se
p 0
8
05
Oct
08
02
No
v 0
8
30
No
v 0
8
28
De
c 0
8
25
Ja
n 0
9
22
Fe
b 0
9
22
Ma
r 0
9
19
Ap
r 0
9
17
Ma
y 0
9
14
Ju
n 0
9
12
Ju
l 09
09
Au
g 0
9
06
Se
p 0
9
04
Oct
09
01
No
v 0
9
29
No
v 0
9
27
De
c 0
9
24
Ja
n 1
0
21
Fe
b 1
0
21
Ma
r 1
0
18
Ap
r 1
0
16
Ma
y 1
0
.13
Ju
n 1
0
con
trib
utio
n t
o c
ha
ng
e %
pts
Volume change Store Choice Promotions Product Choice
Grocery Coping StrategiesThe trend continues to be driven by volume but falls back on last period
Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)