Upload
gudmundur-kristjansson
View
771
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Number that MattersFuture of the European Union in 2030
Arthur DanziGudmundur Kr
Mauricio SuzukiSameer AgarwalSri Hari Krishnan
Our Initial Scenarios
Empire
Breakup
Super State
Islam State
Click Next to see the Muslim Demographics Video
Fertility RatesClaim
France 1.8 1.98 (07) – 2.02 (08) 3
England 1.6 1.63(01) – 1.92 (07)2
Greece 1.3 1.32(95) – 1.41(06) 3
Germany 1.3 1.37 (07) – 1.38 (08) 3
Italy 1.2 1.19 (95) – 1.35 (06) 1
Spain 1.1 1.16 (95) – 1.40 (07) 1
EU 1.38 1.5 (09) 3
Reality
Sources: (1) Eurostat (2) UK Office of National Statistics (3) AFP News
Claim
2.11 Required
1.9 Never Reversed
France Population
18001850
19001950
200025,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
65,000,000
WW I WW II
Source: Compilation de données INSEE, INED, et Jacques Dupaquier, Histoire de la population française, Paris, PUF, 1988. Les données datant d'avant les premiers recensements napoléoniens sont des estimations qui prêtent à débats.
“France: 1.8 per family, Muslims: 8.1”
Not legal in France to collect data on religion
Mostly immigration from Algeria and Morocco – 2.38 children per family
Niger– Highest fertility rate in the World – 7.15
Muslim nations have high fertility rates – Yemen 6.41, Gaza Strip 5.19, Saudi Arabia 3.89
* Source: UN World Population Prospect 2008
“In the Netherlands, 50% of all newborns are Muslim.”
Nearly 1 million Muslims in the Netherlands– 5.8% of the population – 50% growth of muslins from 1990 to 2004 from 500k
Total population of the Netherlands – 16,5 million
Will 50% of the population be Muslim in 2015?– Every Muslim, including men, needs to give birth to
1.3 children per year
Source: Statistics Netherlands, 2009
“Muslim population will double in 20 years”
"That is not true. The German government does not believe that the Muslim population will double in the next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that give a proof for that assumption”
Mr. Walter Radermacher – Chief Statistician of the European Union, former vice-president of the German Federal Statistics Office
The battle between religions
Claim: 30x increase in Muslims in England– No source
Jedi Knight grew from 0 to 390,127 in 1 year– UK National Statistics office, 2001
Jedi Knight will be the main religion in
England before 2015
Source: The Royal Regression Analysis Club at Rotterdam School of Management
THANK YOU
Appendix
Other numbers
• France– France does not collect religious data– Can only show a high concentration of Muslims in one particular
area of France• Netherlands
– Muslims are only 5% of the population (Statistics Netherlands) – 50% of babies = 14 times the rate of births
• UK– 1.6 million (01) but no information about growth rate because
before 2001 no religion data was collected on census• Belgium
– 6% of population (University of Ghent – 2008), instead of 25%