71
Oil Wars Iakovos Alhadeff

Oil Wars

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Oil Wars

Citation preview

Page 1: Oil Wars

Oil Wars

Iakovos Alhadeff

Page 2: Oil Wars

Copyright 2014 by

Iakovos Alhadeff

Published by Iakovos Alhadeff at Smashwords

Page 3: Oil Wars

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

China Russia Iran vs the U.S.A.

The Shanghai Cooperation

Agreement as a Challenge to NATO

The U.S.A. Russia Energy

War as a Simple Addition

The U.S.A. Russia Energy

War in 3 Paragraphs

The 3 Wars for the

Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline

The True Causes of the

Conflict Between Turkey and Israel

The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline

and the Creation of PKK

The War in Kosovo and

the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline

Why Saudi Arabia Blamed

Hamas and Qatar Blamed Israel

in the July 2014 Gaza War

The New Cold War Between U.S.A. and Russia

The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006

Page 4: Oil Wars

Introduction

What follows are some very short essays I wrote about oil and natural gas wars. Each chapter is

an independent. They are independent in the sense that they were not written to form the parts of

a booklet, since all oil and natural gas wars are interrelated.

Page 5: Oil Wars

China Russia Iran vs the U.S.A.

China’s agreements with Kazakhstan and Russia, for the construction of pipelines that will

supply China with oil and natural gas from these two countries were of great geopolitical

importance, for both China and Russia as individual countries, but also as a coalition against the

U.S.A. It is not a secret that the Russian oligarchs, most of them ex KGB agents, have formed an

alliance with the Chinese communists against the Americans.

The Russians to begin with, sell most of their natural gas to the European markets. If the

Europeans were to boycott them, they would face severe financial difficulties. With the new

contract with the Chinese, the Russians will sell 400 billion dollars of natural gas to the Chinese

for the next 30 years and will have a second major buyer.

The Chinese on the other hand, in contrast to the oil and natural gas rich Russians, have to import

most of their oil and natural gas. Energy dependence on the Persian Gulf is a great handicap for

the Chinese, since the Gulf is dominated militarily by the Americans (area in the red circle).

Page 6: Oil Wars

Moreover, the ships carrying energy from the Gulf to China have to pass though the straits

between Malaysia and Indonesia (area with blue circle). However Malaysia has a close military

cooperation with the U.S.A. Basically the Americans can very easily cut off the Chinese energy

supplies in case of a military confrontation.

With energy flowing from Kazakhstan and Russia, the Chinese ensure that they will not run out

of fuels in case of a confrontation. For an article on the tensions between the U.S.A. and China

for the Persian Gulf oil see the following Wall Street Journal article.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324755104579073283948517714

Moreover China has built with Turkmenistan a natural gas pipeline, following the route

Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (orange line), see Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline

China also wants to get hold of Iranian energy. This can be done through an extension of the

Iran-Pakistan pipeline (pink line), see Forbes.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Iran-Pakistan-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-to-Extend-to-

China.html

This could also be done through an extension of the Turkmenistan line to Iran (green line). That

would strengthen both China and Iran. It would greatly increase China’s energy options and

security and it would protect Iran against sanctions from the West. We therefore see that there is

a very strong coalition of inferior civilizations against the Americans, consisting mainly of

Chinese Communists, Iranian Mullahs and Russian ex KGB agents and current oligarchs.

We could say that the Americans lost completely the energy battle of the Caspian Sea, since they

only control Azerbaijan, which is a NATO friendly country, and they only managed to transfer

some Caspian oil to the Mediterranean through the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route (the Baku-

Ceyhan pipeline)..

For the Americans and the Europeans it is very important that Europe is not heavily dependent

on Russia in terms of its energy supplies. Therefore the Americans were hoping, and still hope, to

Page 7: Oil Wars

transfer natural gas either from the Persian Gulf or from the Caspian Sea through Turkey to

Europe. That would reduce European (NATO) dependency on Gazprom.

We should therefore not assume that the Americans have the power to fight energy rich

aborigines for ever. If we take the American military power as given, we might wake up one day

to see the Chinese Communists being the number one military power in the world. And this is

very scary.

For the Russian Chinese deal see Forbes.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswright/2014/05/22/400-billion-gas-deal-shows-russia-looking-

to-china-to-replace-western-money/

For the China Kazakhstan deal see Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan%E2%80%93China_oil_pipeline

For the Turkmenistan China deal see Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline

Page 8: Oil Wars

The Shanghai Cooperation

Agreement as a Challenge to NATO

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a political, economic and military cooperation. It

currently has 6 full member states, namely Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzdtan

and Tajikistan. Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are observing states, and Turkmenistan is a

guest state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization aims to become what the Warsaw Pact used to be i.e. a

challenge to NATO. I would like to say a few words about the member states’ regimes. China’s

political regime is a communist dictatorship. Kazakhstan is ruled by Nursultan Nazarbayev,

which has been the only president since Kazakhstan’s independence, and he is the former general

secretary of Kazakhstan’s Communist Pary. In the 2004 elections, his party gained 90% of the

parliament’s seats, and the Agrarian party, which was led by his daughter gained the remaining

seats, except one seat that was gained by the remaining parties.

Uzbekistan is ruled by Islam Karimov, who has been the only president since the country’s

independence in 1991. Islam Karimov is a former member of the Soviet Communist Party.

Page 9: Oil Wars

Tajikistan is ruled by Emomalli Rahmon, who is again the only president since the country’s

independence in 1994.

Iran is an Islamic country, where the Supreme Leader is the ultimate authority, and he is more

powerful than the elected Iranian president. The Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly

of Experts, which is a council of Islamic theologians. Turkmenistan, since its independence in

1991, is ruled by the president for life Saparmurat Niyazov.

Russia is the only country which has some elements of democracy, however also ruled by ex

KGB agents like Putin, and ex members of the Communist Party, which are today’s oligarchs.

Russian people never experienced freedom and democracy, since they were ruled by Tsars, and

then from 1917 to the early 90’s they were under a regime of communist dictatorship. Today’s

regime with the rule of the ex KGB and ex Communist oligarchs, is Russia’s highest democratic

achievement.

If Iran and Turkmenistan become full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the

Organization will control over 60% of the world’s natural gas reserves, and a very large part of

the world’s oil reserves. Moreover if Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Mongolia that are

currently observing members become full members, the Organization will have fully encircled

the Persian Gulf and the American military bases in Qatar, as you can see on the map. The

Persian Gulf holds most of the oil and natural gas reserves that are outside the Organization’s

control today.

And what do we hear from both Communists and Nazis? We hear that NATO is a fascist

organization, and we can only hope on the strengthening of organizations like the Shanghai

Cooperation Agreement, because no matter where Communists and Nazis live, they always have

a third world mentality.

As you can see at the following link at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit of

September 2014, the Organization will invite India, Pakistan, Mongolia and Iran to become full

members and not simply observing members as they currently are.

http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_08_01/SCO--admit-new-members/

Page 10: Oil Wars

If they do become full members of the SCO, the only two members that are missing for the black

diagram of the map to close, and encircle the American military forces in the Persian Gulf, will

be Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Moreover, as you can see at the following link, Turkey is examining the possibility of becoming

a full member of the SCO. If Turkey becomes an SCO member, the transfer of oil and natural gas

from the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf to Europe, will not be controlled by NATO anymore,

but from the SCO instead.

http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/turkey-renews-plea-to-join-shanghai-cooperation-organization/

Page 11: Oil Wars

The U.S.A. Russia Energy

War as a Simple Addition

I keep saying that the Americans and the Europeans are desperately looking for an alternative to

Gazprom natural gas network, in order to diminish Russian influence over European countries,

since Gazprom provides almost 30% of Europe’s natural gas imports.

Russia’s main energy hub is Ukraine, and the West is hoping to use Turkey as its hub, in order to

transfer natural gas from the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Sea to Europe. It is a well known fact,

that the energy resources of the NATO friendly Azerbaijan are not sufficient to cover European

demand. The Americans will have to connect to the Azerbaijani network, natural gas from the

other countries of the region.

The countries at the other side of the Caspian i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, are tied

with long contracts and pipelines to China and Russia. China imports their gas in order to

consume it, and Russia in order to prevent it from falling to Western hands and resell it through

Gazprom.

You can see at the following Wikipedia link, and at the picture above, the richest countries in the

world in terms of natural gas reserves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves

Page 12: Oil Wars

You can see that even if the Americans manage to bring Qatari natural gas to the Azerbaijani

network, if Iran is controlled by the Russians and the Chinese, most of the world natural gas

resources will be controlled by the Russians and the Chinese. The West will only control the

Qatari natural gas i.e. 25 billion cubic meters, and the Russians with the Chinese will be

controlling the natural gas of Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan i.e. 48.7+33.6+17.5= 100 billion

cubic meters. The West will only control ¼ of the East’s natural gas.

This would be a major power shift in the geopolitical field, and the U.S.A. would have to be

crazy to allow it to happen, when they are spending annually 600 billion in military spending,

while Russia and China together spend less than 200 billion. You can see the figures at the

following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

If the West controls Iran, the West will control Qatar + Iran = 58 billion cubic meters, and the

East will control Russia + Turkmenistan = 65 billion cubic meters. I therefore believe that the

Iran will either have to cooperate with the West, or it will have to fall.

Page 13: Oil Wars
Page 14: Oil Wars

The U.S.A. Russia Energy

War in 3 Paragraphs

There are only 4 big players in the natural gas market, the ones you can see in the black circles,

namely Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. There are only two energy hubs through which

they can transport their natural gas to Europe, the ones in the red circles, namely Turkey and

Ukraine.

Russia’s problem is that the West, U.S.A. and E.U., has blocked its energy hub, namely Ukraine.

The West’s problem is that even though Turkey, their energy hub, is free, they do not have

enough gas to send to Europe to diminish the Russian influence, since Turkmenistan is controlled

by Russia and China, Iran is a hostile to the West country, and Syria’s dictator Assad will not

allow Qatar to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria, since he is a close ally of Russia.

The Russians partially got over their problem, by building the North Stream pipeline, which is a

natural gas pipeline from Russia to Northern Europe that bypasses Ukraine through the Baltic

Sea. They are currently trying to construct the South Stream pipeline, which will connect Russia

to Southern Europe through the Caspian Sea, bypassing Ukraine too. For the moment the U.S.A.

and the E.U. are successful in blocking this pipeline.

Page 15: Oil Wars

The 3 Wars for the

Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline

At section ‘History’, of the second paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that

the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline, which was the only exit that the Americans managed to find through

the NATO-friendly Azerbaijan for the Caspian Sea oil, in a region controlled by the Russians,

was proposed to Georgia and Azerbaijan by the Turkish President Demirel in 1992. The pipeline

would follow the route Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi%E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#History

The Russian revenge towards Georgia, was to provide plenty of support to the separatists in the

region of Abkhazia, and thus a war started between Georgia and the inhabitants of Abkhazia in

1992. See the first lines of the following wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Abkhazia_(1992%E2%80%9393)

Page 16: Oil Wars

The Russian revenge towards Azerbaijan, was to provide plenty of support to the Armenian

separatists of the region of Karabach in Azerbaijan. As you can read at the third paragraph of the

following wikipedia link, Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and

the Armenians of the Karaback asked for their independence as they had done in the past, and the

Nagorno-Karabach War started in 1991 (there had been fights in the past too).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan

The Americans revenge was to support the Chechen separatists, and the first Russia Chechen war

started in 1994. See first lines of the following wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War

You can therefore see how the big powers feed existing conflicts according to their own interests.

In all the above cases the conflicts were already there, they were not created by the Russians and

the Americans. The Russians and the Americans just used them for their own purposes.

Page 17: Oil Wars

The True Causes of the

Conflict Between Turkey and Israel

I always found the conflict between Turkey and Israel strange, since the two countries had a long

tradition of smooth commercial and military cooperation. And yet it seems now that Israel is

perceived by Recep Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, as his country’s major enemy.

What happened? It was only in 2005, as you can see in paragraph “After AKP Ascendancy” of

the following Wikipedia link, that Recep Erdogan, during his visit in Israel, informed the

nationalist Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that the Iranian nuclear program was not only a

threat for Israel, but instead a threat for the whole world. Is it possible for someone to say

something that will please the Israelis more than that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Turkey_relations#After_AKP_ascendancy

Moreover, as you can read in the same paragraph, during his staying in Israel, Recep Erdogan,

paid a visit to the Holocaust Museum, and said that for his party, anti-Semitism was a crime

against humanity, and also that the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs said that the relations

between Israel and Turkey were perfect. So what changed so dramatically, and today Turkey is

with Iran and Qatar the major supporters of the terrorist organization Hamas, which is the

organization that launches rockets from Gaza to Israel? As always the explanation is oil and

natural gas.

The first reason is the vast resources of natural gas that exist in the sea area between Cyprus and

Israel, which you can see at the following Wikipedia map with green and orange. The vast area

above the green country (Cyprus) is Turkey.

Page 18: Oil Wars

Greece, Cyprus and Turkey, have long disputes about their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ),

since the latter determines who has what claims on the areas energy riches. And Turkey does not

recognize the EEZ of Greece and Cyprus, since doing that would allow the two countries to

exploit the region’s natural gas. Israel however, did recognize the Greek and Cypriot EEZ, as you

can see at the following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone#Greece

Recognizing the Greek EEZ was a major blow in the Turkish-Israeli relations. Moreover, since

Turkey was threatening Greece and Cyprus that it would retaliate in case they unilaterally

declared their EEZ without Turkey’s approval, Greece, Cyprus and Israel formed a militarily

coalition against Turkey. At the following Wikipedia link, at section Military Cooperation, you

can read about the Greek-Israeli military cooperation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Military_collaboration

In 2008 the first Greek-Israeli military exercise took place, under the code name Glorious

Spartan. The second military exercise between the two countries, with code name Minoas 2010,

was scheduled for the 26th of May 2010, and was supposed to last until the 3rd of June. The

exercise started on the 26th as scheduled. However on the 31st of May 2010, in order to take

revenge from Israel, Erdogan launched the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, a flotilla of 6 ships, with the

ship Mavi Marmara on the lead. Supposedly the aim of the flotilla was to break the embargo

imposed by the Israelis on Gaza’s port.

However Erdogan was fully aware that there was no chance that the Israelis would allow that. If

the Israelis were to do so, Hamas would not have to struggle in order to smuggle Iranian and

Qatari rockets and weapons from Egypt to Gaza. They could simply use harbor cranes to unload

them from big ships. Therefore there was not even the slightest chance of success, and Erdogan

knew that very well. What Erdogan was hoping for, was that the Israelis would respond with

violence to the attacks of the terrorists against its soldiers, when the latter would attempt to seize

the ships, and use this blood to isolate Israel diplomatically. And that’s exactly what happened.

Following the Mavi Marmara incident, the Greek government had to withdraw its military forces

from the common exercise with the Israelis, ending the exercise on the 31st of May instead of the

Page 19: Oil Wars

3rd of June as scheduled. However this incident only temporarily terminated the Greek Israeli

military cooperation. I must mention that Greek journalists were very pro Erdogan and anti Israel

during the Mavi Marmara crisis, since most of them work for Greek businessmen who have very

close ties with the Arabs, and therefore their interests are not always in tandem with national

strategy.

I mean that at a time when the Greek Army was conducting a military exercise with the Israelis,

and the Israelis had recognized the Greek Exclusive Economic Zone, and while Greece had

joined a common defense doctrine with Israel against Turkey, Erdogan was attacking Israel to

retaliate, and the Greek reporters were supporting Erdogan. You can read about what I say in the

following link of the Research Institute of European and American Studies.

http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/greek-israel-studies/2077-greek-israeli-cyprus-military-and-

security-relations-a-preview-.html

The second cause of the Turkish Israeli conflict is the natural gas and oil of the Persian Gulf. As I

was explaining in great detail in my essay “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”, there

is a great fight in the Middle East between the Shiites regimes of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,

and the Sunni regimes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. and Turkey. The cause of the conflict is

that both the Shiites and the Sunnis want to send Persian Gulf energy to Europe and East Asia

with their own pipeline networks.

Before the ISIS or ISIL attacks (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and

Levant or simply Islamic State), Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon were controlled by Shiites(or

Shia). These regimes wanted to send energy to Europe, following the route Iran-Iraq-Syria-

Lebanon-Europe. You can read about the Iran-Iraq-Syria or the Shiite pipeline at the following

Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline

You can see at the following Wikipedia map the route they would follow.

Page 20: Oil Wars

Please not that Syria is controlled by Assad, who is an Alawite. Alawites are a branch of Shiite

Islam, as you can read in the first few sentences of the following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites

On the other hand, Sunni regimes i.e. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, and Turkey, want to

build their own pipeline network, in order to send their energy to Europe, following the route

Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Iraq-Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can read for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline at the

following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar-Turkey_pipeline

As you can see at the map, if Iraq and Syria are controlled by the Shiites, the Sunni pipeline is

blocked. That’s the cause of the war in the region. Therefore Turkey’s interests are closely linked

to Qatar’s interests, since the Qatar-Turkey pipeline will increase dramatically Turkey’s

geopolitical significance as an international energy hub, and it will generate lot’s of revenues in

hard currencies. But Qatar is one of Israel’s lethal enemies, and the major supporter of the

terrorist organization Hamas, which launches rockets to Israel.

Therefore the Sunni pipelines in the Middle East bring Turkey and Qatar much closer, and the

energy triangle between Greece-Cyprus and Israel, move Israel and Turkey further apart. As it is

Page 21: Oil Wars

most of the time the case, energy is the reason that Israel and Turkey, once a strong alliance, are

now standing so far away.

You can read more about the Pipeline war between the Sunnis and the Shiites at the following

link. “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”.

http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/the-energy-war-between-u-s-a-and-russia-and-the-threat-

for-israels-survival/

Page 22: Oil Wars

The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline

and the Creation of PKK

The oil pipeline of Kirkuk-Ceyhan (or Kirkuk-Yumurtalik) connects the oil rich Northern Iraq

with the Turkish port of Ceyhan (white line).

As you can read on page 90 of the following link of the International Transport Forum, an

international think tank with 54 member countries, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline was constructed

in 1977 and its capacity was further increased in 1984.

http://internationaltransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/09Turkey.pdf

As you can read in the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, Abdullah Ocalan

established the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in 1978, and he launched his first attack against

Turkey in 1984.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers'_Party

Page 23: Oil Wars

You can see that the dates of the pipeline and the PKK are almost the same. When the pipeline

was constructed the PKK was established, and when the capacity of the pipeline was increased

the PKK launched its first attack. Is this a coincidence?

Iran and Iraq are the 4th and 5th richest countries in the world in terms of proven oil reserves. At

that time the Iranian-Iraqi relations were very hostile, and they finally went into a very long war,

the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. The main conflict was the Shatt al Arab (Arvand Rud) river,

which is formed by the Tiger and Euphrates confluence (red circle in the Iran-Iraq borders), and

which ends in the Persian Gulf.

This river was, and still is, very important for transfer oil from the rich fields of the region to the

Persian Gulf, in order to export it, since the Persian Gulf is the largest oil exporting region in the

world. You can read about the river conflict in section ‘Territorial Disputes’ of the following

Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shatt_al-Arab#Territorial_disputes

According to the above link, the river of Shatt al Arab was always a source of conflict between

the Ottoman Empire and Persia, and they actually had to sign an agreement in 1639 about it.

Keep in mind that Tiger and Euphrates are a constant source of conflict between Turkey and

Syria too.

Therefore the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline which was of great help to Iraq as a source of extra

revenue was a great problem for its foe. It is a common policy in the Middle East to fund various

groups, either religious or sectarians or else, in order to attack their competitors’ pipeline

infrastructure.

As you can see on the map, Kirkuk is located in Northern Iraq, in the Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdistan

is the region in the red diagram, and it also has a Syrian, an Iraqi, an Iranian and a Turkish part.

There is no evidence to support that it was Iran that financed the Kurds, but it would be

something very reasonable to assume. At the following Wikipedia link you can see that the

equivalent to PKK Kurdish organization in Iran, the PJAK, launched its first attack in Iran in

2004. The PKK launched its first attack in 1984 and the PJAK in 2004.

Page 24: Oil Wars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PJAK#Armed_conflict_and_arrests

Page 25: Oil Wars

The War in Kosovo and

the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline

The war in Yugoslavia (Serbia) was another energy war. The population of Kosovo, in the

southern part of Serbia, is 90% Muslims of Albanian origin as you can see at the following

Wikipedia link. These people wanted to be independent from Serbia after the end of the

communist period

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Albanians

These separatists were embraced by the Americans and the Europeans. Before the creation of the

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (brown region) and the creation of Kosovo (green

region), were both former parts of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia together with Greece, both close

Page 26: Oil Wars

Russian allies, could block oil or natural gas pipelines that could transfer Caspian oil or natural

gas from the Black Sea to the Adriatic Sea, since these American and European pipelines would

antagonize the Russian oil and natural gas industry.

As you can see at the following link, the AMBP pipeline, is an oil pipeline transferring Caspian

oil to the Adriatic Sea, following the route Ajerbaijan-Turkey-Bulgaria-FYROM-Albania-

Adriatic Sea-Europe (black line on the map), which has been already agreed, but which has not

been developed yet, as you can read at the following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMBO_pipeline

Hence, the Kosovars of Albanian origin started protesting requiring their independence, the Serbs

used violence against them, and on February of 1998, a NATO operation under the code name

Operation Allied Force attacked Serbia. The attacks were carried out by 13 countries, namely

U.S.A., Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy,

Norway, Denmark and Turkey.

These countries attacked Serbia and forced Serbia to accept an autonomous Kosovo. A large

NATO base was established in Kosovo, namely the Kosovo Force, which would see that

Albanian Kosovars were not threatened by the Serbs, and that any future pipelines crossing the

region would be secure too. You can read about Kosovo Force in the following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Force

The following link is a good chronological summary of the NATO attack in Serbia.

http://www.jfcnaples.nato.int/page7196179.aspx

Page 27: Oil Wars

Why Saudi Arabia Blamed

Hamas and Qatar Blamed Israel

in the July 2014 Gaza War

It is a well know fact that Saudi Arabia is extremely rich in oil, Qatar is extremely rich in natural

gas, and Turkey is not very rich in none of them. Israel has some natural gas riches, nothing in

comparison to Qatar, but very poor in oil. It is a well known fact, that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and

Turkey, all supported the rebels against Assad. However everybody agrees that they funded

different rebel groups, since the Saudis are against the Muslim Brotherhood unlike the other two.

Even though they all three were united against Assad, in the Gaza crisis of July 2014, Saudi

Arabia blamed Hamas for the crisis, while Turkey and Qatar supported Hamas and blamed Israel.

Why unlike the case with Assad they were divided?

The reason is that Assad agreed with Iran, which is rich in both oil and natural gas, to an Iran-

Iraq-Syria pipeline(red line), that would bring Iranian oil and natural gas to the Mediterranean

Sea, thus hurting both oil rich Saudis, natural gas rich Qataris, and bypassing the poor in both

Turkey, which wishes however to be the only energy hub in Southern Europe.

Page 28: Oil Wars

Therefore all three were united. In the case of Israel however, the Saudis did not want to support

Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood’ s offspring, since they are afraid that they are dangerous for

their regime too. Since Israel does not have oil to export and hurt the Saudi sales, they supported

Israel, because they thought it would be convenient for them to form a short term alliance with

Israel, in order for Israel to finish the Muslim Brotherhood’s offspring i.e. Hamas. However the

natural gas rich Qatar, and the bypassed as an energy hub by Israel’s exports’ (blue line) Turkey,

did not afford to support Israel. Actually it is these two, with some support from Iran that

required Hamas to fire the rockets.

The Qataris are hoping to sell their natural gas to Europe through Turkey (black line).

Page 29: Oil Wars

The New Cold War Between U.S.A. and Russia

The conflict in Ukraine is only a part of the energy war between Russia and United States.

Europe is very poor in terms of energy resources, but very rich in all other aspects. Both U.S.A.

and Russia want to dominate the European energy market, since this does not only involve

economic gains, but aslo increased diplomatic power. Energy is very important for all developed

economies, and energy providers normally have political power over energy recipients.

Russia is the richest country in natural gas reserves and the number one oil producer. It is not

however the richest country in oil reserves. Please note that the richest countries in energy

reserves are not necessarily the largest energy producers too. At the following Wikipedia link you

can see Gazprom’s European market shares. Gazprom is the Russian state owned natural gas

giant, and on average it holds 30% of the European natural gas market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector

Moreover Russia supplies a large part of the oil consumed by European countries. This energy

dominance is a big pain for United States, since it gives Russia political power over NATO

members. Therefore the Americans wish to provide Europe with alternative sources of energy,

and more specifically with alternative sources of natural gas, since natural gas is most of the time

delivered through pipelines, and it creates a greater dependency on the part of the energy

recipient than oil, which is normally transferred with ships.

Most of Gazprom’s natural gas, approximately 80% of it, is distributed to Europe through

Ukraine. At the following link you can read about the disputes between Russia and Ukraine over

natural gas distribution.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes

That’s the reason the Americans are so keen to help anti-Russian and NATO friendly Ukrainians.

The Russians on the other hand do not like this dependency on Ukraine, and have developed the

Nord Stream pipeline which delivers Gazprom’s natural gas directly to Germany, through the

Baltic Sea, thus bypassing Ukraine. You can see at the following BBC map the Nord Stream

pipeline with Green color.

Page 30: Oil Wars

Map 1

Source BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14803065)

Russia wants to also develop another pipeline, the South Stream, which you can see with the blue

color on the map, which will again bypass Ukraine and will deliver Gazprom’s natural gas to

Southern Europe. When both these pipelines will be ready, the Russians will not depend anymore

on Ukraine to supply the whole Europe with Russian natural gas. As you can see the South

Stream will cross the Black Sea, and from Bulgaria will distribute natural gas to Southern

Europe.

To develop the South Stream pipeline, Russia needs the help of Bulgaria, and also the help of

Turkey, since the Exclusive Economic Zones of both Bulgaria and Turkey are involved. One but

not the only reason there was so much noise about Crimea was because of Crimea’s effect on the

Ukraine and Russian Exclusive Economic Zones. Crimea is the piece of land under Ukraine on

map 2

Page 31: Oil Wars

Map 2

As you can see, if Ukraine controls Crimea, Ukraine would have a saying on the South Stream

crossing the Black Sea, since it would fall inside Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone. But if

Crimea belongs to Russia, Ukraine does not have a saying on the construction of the pipeline.

And Russia annexed Crimea as we all know. And as you can see on map 3, from

whowhatwhy.com, which is accurate, the Russians designed the pipeline nearer Turkey to totally

avoid Ukraine.

Map 3

Page 32: Oil Wars

The Europeans are divided on the issue of the South Stream. As you can see at the following

Reuters’ link,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-southstream-analys-

idUSBREA3G1KP20140417

some countries perceive it as a positive development i.e. Germany, Italy, Bulgaria. The important

point to note is that once the South Stream is ready, together with the Nord Stream, will allow

Gazprom to supply with natural gas the whole European Continent without relying on the

Ukrainian pipeline network. Moreover, as you can see on the following Wikipedia link, Ukraine

is the 26th richest country in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, which further enhances

its geostrategic importance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine

As I already said, the Americans and the Europeans want to have many sources of natural gas, in

order to limit the economic but mainly the diplomatic influence that Russia enjoys over NATO

members, and which arises by the 30% of Gazprom’s share in the European market. It also has to

do with competition issues. The more energy options a country has the cheaper it buys its energy.

The Americans and the Europeans want to bring natural gas from the energy rich Caspian Sea to

Europe. The Nabucco Pipeline and the Pans Adriatic Pipeline are two of the possible routes. The

Nabucco pipeline which you can see with red color on map 1 will bring Caspian natural gas to

Europe through Turkey. The other possible pipeline, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline TAP, which you

can see on map 4 below, will again bring natural gas from Caspian Sea to Europe through

Turkey.

Page 33: Oil Wars

Map 4

It is clear how important Turkey is for the Americans and Europeans, since both the Nabucco and

the TAP pipelines will have to pass through its territories to deliver Caspian natural gas to

European markets. And I am not talking for the obvious economic benefits. I am talking about

Turkey’s increased geopolitical power. It is very important for the Americans and Europeans to

have Turkey on their side, so if they decide to take sanctions against Russia and there is a

disturbance in natural gas supply, Turkey will not cut off supplies from the Caspian Sea too to

support Russia. Currently it is very painful for the Americans and the Europeans to take

sanctions against Russia, since Gazprom provides a large share of the natural gas consumed in

the European markets

Iran’s is also very important for the Americans and the Europeans. Iran is situated on the Caspian

Sea and it will be very difficult for the Americans to ensure stable natural gas supply to Europe if

they face a hostile Iran. Moreover Iran is a very energy rich country, one of the richest ones in

fact, and its natural gas could be transferred to Europe too. The Nabucco and TAP pipelines are

supposed to transfer natural gas from NATO friendly Azerbaijan, but other countries can be

connected on the pipeline network too. Therefore both Iran and Turkey are extremely important

for the American and European efforts to provide Europe with abundant non Russian natural gas.

The increase in Turkey’s and Iran’s geopolitical power poses a lethal threat to Israel. You have to

keep in mind that Turkey and Iran are two of Israel’s lethal enemies. Iran’s goal is to eliminate

Page 34: Oil Wars

Israel, and Turkey, an ex Israel ally, does not seem to be further away from this view, under the

leadership of Recep Erdogan. Actually everybody knows that it is mainly Iran, Turkey and Qatar

that support and provide funding to Hamas, which is recognized by U.S.A., the E.E., Japan and

other countries as a terrorist organization. Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, and came to power with

elections in Gaza. It is Hamas that fires all these rockets that you hear about from Gaza to Israel.

At the following article you can read about the funding of Hamas.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/hamas-funds.htm

In this changing geopolitical map, Israel does not seem to be able to count on United States for

its survival, as it has for so many years done. This has already caused a deterioration in the

American-Israeli relations, and an improvement in the Russian-Israeli relations. You have to

keep in mind that rich natural gas fields were also found in the Mediterranean See, in the region

between Greece, Cyprus,Turkey and Israel. This could be also an energy alternative for Europe

as you can see on map 6

Map 6

Page 35: Oil Wars

The problem is that it is very difficult and very costly to build a pipeline network through the

Mediterranean See if Turkey is involved in the project. But with the current political situation

between Turkey and Israel this does not seem to be feasible, at least not for Israel’s part of

energy.

The natural gas found in the Israeli sea, might be the only chip for survival that Israel has in this

energy hungry world. It seems that Israel is giving Russia a role in its energy wealth. At the

following Bloomberg link you can see the cooperation between Gazprom and the Israelis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gazprom-holds-talks-to-export-all-lng-from-

israeli-tamar-project.html

It seems that in a world where Israelis cannot count on the protection of the Americans, they are

moving towards Russia. They are not connected to Russia in the same way they were connected

to the U.S.A., but it seems they are somewhere between these two countries. At the following

Financial Times link, you can see that Israel did not vote against Russia in the U.N. resolution

about Ukraine. It rather preferred to abstain.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a51509b2-c665-11e3-ba0e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39QhkKtrJ

The FT examines the causes for this behavior and at the end of the article say:

“But the strongest motivation for Israel to stay out of the Ukraine fracas lies in the present day

and closer to home: Russia is a strong and growing power in the Middle East.

Israel needs to engage Moscow on several vital issues: Iran’s nuclear programme and the

dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Moscow is the biggest foreign patron of

Bashar al-Assad’s Syria and a major supplier of arms to the Middle East in general.

Behind closed doors, Israel has prevailed on Russia to refrain from supplying game-changing

weapons to Syria that could land in the hands of Hizbollah, its best-armed regional enemy.”

Moreover as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli Foreign

Affairs Minister, is a Russian Jew. He was born in Russia, served in the Russian Army, and later

Page 36: Oil Wars

immigrated to Israel with his family. It is “strange” that the Israelis chose a Russian soldier as

their Minister of Foreign Affairs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avigdor_Lieberman

Some people are confused because the U.S. is still giving Israel some financial aid. For example

they recently offered Israel 200 million dollars in terms of financial aid. But Israel was receiving

approximately 3 billion dollars a year in American aid some years ago. This 200 million dollars,

is some of the last money Israel is receiving from United States as you can read at the following

article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-strauss/us-aid-israel_b_4251742.html

For Israel there is another big problem, namely the pipelines that will transfer natural gas from

the Persian Gulf to European markets, and more specifically the pipelines that will transfer

natural gas from the Persian Gulf’s South Pars/North Dome field. South Pars/North Dome is the

richest natural gas filed in the world and it lies between Qatar and Iran. It is jointly owned by

Qatar and Iran. You can see it on map 7.

Map 7

Page 37: Oil Wars

These pipelines are the real cause of the current war in Iraq and Syria. Muslims are divided in

Sunis and Shias. And the Shias want to transfer the natural gas through the route Iran-Iraq-Syria-

Lebanon-Mediterranean Sea- Europe and the Sunis through the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-

Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can see both the Suni (purple color) and Shia (red color) pipelines at

the following map

Map 8

Sunis and Shias are currently fighting in Syria and Iraq. As you can see on map 9, if Sunis win

Syria and Iraq, Shias cannot go ahead with their pipeline. The only other route to reach Europe

would be through Turkey. But Turkey is on the Suni side. The problem for Israel is that

Americans are supporting the Sunis in this conflict. Americans are very good friends with Qatar,

one of the owners of South Pars/ North Dome. The Russians support the Shia pipeline i.e. Iran.

It is known that Qatar is one of the countries that heavily fund Hamas, which is the terrorist

organization that throws rockets from Gaza to Israel, and it is officially recognized by U.S.A. and

Europe as a terrorist organization. Therefore Israel cannot count on the Americans at least for as

long as they back their lethal enemies. On the other hand, Iran is with Russia on this fight, and

Page 38: Oil Wars

together they support Assad in Syria. But Iran is also funding Hamas. But it is in direct

competition with Qatar on this pipeline fight.

But it is Iran’s nuclear program that is the lethal threat to Israelis. And it is the Russians that

control the nuclear program of the Iranians. And the Americans do not seem very interested in

preventing Iran from developing its nuclear arsenal. As you can see on the fourth paragraph of

the following Wikipedia link, it is the Russians that developed the first nuclear factory in Iran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

And as you can see on the following Reuters link, the Russians will develop another 8 nuclear

reactors in Iran.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/22/iran-nuclear-russia-idUKL6N0O83KX20140522

And it is the Russians that provide weapons to Syrians one of Israel’s oldest foe. If you also take

into account that Obama is a president who seems to have strong ties with the Muslim world but

also with the Muslim Brotherhood, it should not be a big surprise that the Israelis have a Russian

soldier as their Minister of Foreign Affairs. You should also have a look at this video about how

U.S.A. indirectly helps Hamas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN_i0UKB3ZU&index=4&list=PL2bOp7h44zv65ap-

PbglPHKSLSdHAAjQM

You should also do some research on the relations of the U.S.A. and Qatar, and on the relation of

Qatar, Iran and Turkey with Hamas. It will help you understand the current geopolitical situation.

Page 39: Oil Wars

Map 9

It seems that the 21st century will a tough one for Israel.

Page 40: Oil Wars

I have written a lot in my previous essays about the Baku-Ceyhan and the Baku-Supsa pipelines (white lines on the map), as the only American success in the Caspian Sea region, a region which is controlled by the Russians and the Iranians. With the help of the only NATO friendly country of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, the Americans managed to construct a pipeline that bypassed both Iran and Russia, using the energy corridor Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey, transferring Caspian energy to the Mediterranean Sea (Ceyhan) and to the Black Sea (Supsa).

They did so, in order to provide the European markets with an alternative to the Russian energy, thus decreasing the Russian influence over Europe, hoping that eventually they would manage to influence some of the other corrupted dictators of the Caspian countries too, who are currently under Russian influence, since Azerbaijan’s energy reserves are clearly inadequate to compete with the Russian ones.

At the following tables you can see the Caspian region reserves by country.

Page 41: Oil Wars

As you can see at the above table, the Americans and the Europeans need the oil rich Kazakhstan in order to fill their oil pipelines, and they need the natural gas rich Turkmenistan in order to fill their future natural gas pipelines, if they finally develop a natural gas pipeline network. Alternatively they can take Iran on their side, since Iran is twice as rich as Russia in terms of oil, and its natural gas reserves amount to 2/3 of the Russian ones, and therefore Iran can clearly compete with Russia.

Page 42: Oil Wars

The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline

Moreover they planned to construct a new underwater four leg pipeline from Ceyhan to Haifa, which would carry crude oil, natural gas, electricity and water from Turkey to Israel, which would distribute it in the whole region, but also to the port of Eilat and then to South Asia, again bypassing Iran (red line on the map). You can read about the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline at the above European Commission link, pages 10 and 11, tables 3.2.3 and 3.2.7, or you can see it visually at the following map.

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/doc/country/2009_12_turkey.pdf

Source:http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.gr/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html

Also note that the rich in oil Kirkuk in North Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan), is also connected to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, with the pipeline Kirkuk-Ceyhan (yellow line on the map). Therefore the underwater Ceyhan-Haifa connection would actually be a connection of Baku and Kirkuk with the Israeli port of Eilat in the Red Sea, and finally to South Asia (Pakistan, India, China) bypassing Iran. After describing the Ceyhan pipelines and before turning to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006, I must also say a few words about the economic and geopolitical implications of these pipelines.

Page 43: Oil Wars

An obvious consequence of the Baku-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa pipelines was that the Russians were very angry, since the Americans and the Europeans could compete with them in Europe if they finally manage to reach countries rich in oil and natural gas. Another consequence was that Iran was even angrier than Russia, since the Baku-Eilat pipeline would transfer Caspian energy to South East Asia bypassing Iran. As you can see on the map, the shortest way to provide Caspian Energy to South Asia is through Iran.

However with the Baku-Ceyhan and the Ceyhan-Haifa-Eilat pipelines, another financially viable route was created, in order to provide Caspian energy to South Asia bypassing Iran, since for most of the distance (Baku-Eilat) only pipelines would be used, which is a very efficient way of transferring energy, and tankers would only be used from the port of Eilat. This was of course very bad for Iran’s exports, but also for its geopolitical significance.

I have said many times in the past how important it is for Iran to construct a pipeline network that would connect it to Pakistan, India and finally China (black line on the map), since it would make Iran much more competitive than Saudi Arabia, its main competitor in oil markets, and Qatar, its main competitor in natural gas markets, since as you can see on the map, Saudi Arabia and Qatar cannot be connected to South Asia with a pipeline network. Geographically it is only possible for Iran to do so. For a detailed description on the war against Iran, in order to prevent it from connecting itself through pipelines to Pakistan, India and China, see my previous essays.

Therefore the Saudis and the Qataris do not want a pipeline connection between Iran, Pakistan, India and China, since it would make Iran more competitive in these markets which are currently dominated by the Saudis in oil sales and by the Qataris in natural gas sales. Moreover the Americans do not want this to happens, since it would connect China to the Persian Gulf, and it would enable China to obtain Persian Gulf energy bypassing the Indian Ocean which is dominated by the American Navy, which makes it possible for the Americans to ‘unplug’ China very easily in the case of a war. China partially fixed this weakness with the 400 billion dollar mammoth deal with Russia, according to which Russia will supply China with natural gas for the next 30 years.

The Indians, who are a key connection between Iran and China, do not want to be so heavily dependent for their energy imports on the politically unstable Persian Gulf, since there is always the possibility of a ‘hot’ war, which would prevent access to the Persian Gulf and to energy supplies. They have therefore been constantly looking for the past years for a competitive alternative to the Persian Gulf energy supply. Moreover having access to many energy sources is not only good in terms of energy security, but it also ensures better energy prices.

Page 44: Oil Wars

For Indians the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline was one of the Persian Gulf alternatives, since even if access to the Persian Gulf by sea was prevented due to a war, supply could continue through the pipelines, and they have therefore many times in the past tried to promote this project, without however so far being successful. On the other hand this pipeline would pass through Pakistan, India’s main enemy, and it had its own weakness in terms of energy security.

Therefore the Baku-Eilat connection would offer India an alternative to the Persian Gulf, which would have nothing to do with Pakistan. The following Asia Times article calls the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline a ‘lifeline’ for India, since it is an alternative to the Persian Gulf and at the same time it is a source of energy independent from Pakistan.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JB27Df03.html

You can also read about how important the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline would be for India in the following Times of India article.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Turkey-offers-alternative-to-Iran-pipeline/articleshow/2770237.cms

This is one more article on the subject from Pakistan Defence, but you can find many other articles if you simply google ‘Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and India’ or something similar.

http://defence.pk/threads/turkey-offers-alternative-to-iran-pipeline.9754/

Therefore the Baku-Eilat pipeline would not only bypass Iran, but it would reduce the pressure on the part of the South Asian countries for promoting the badly needed for Iran project of the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline. Could it be worse for Iran? That’s why Saudi Arabia and

Page 45: Oil Wars

Qatar did not object to the Ceyhan-Eilat connection, because they realize that if the South Asian countries do not have an alternative to the Persian Gulf, they will press harder for a land connection with Iran.

The Saudis and the Qataris can compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Eilat to South Asia, but they cannot compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Iran to South Asia through pipelines. After this large introduction I can finally turn to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006.

Page 46: Oil Wars

The Israel-Lebanon War of 2006

As you can read at section ‘Inauguration’ of the following Wikipedia link, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, it was inaugurated at its Ceyhan terminal on 13.7.2006.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi%E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#Inauguration

As you can read at the following Wikipedia link on 12.7.2006, one day before the Ceyhan inauguration, Hezbollah terrorists attacked the Israelis starting the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War

More specifically, the second paragraph of the above link says:

‘The conflict was precipitated by the Zar'it-Shtula incident. On 12 July 2006, militants from the group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack on two armored Humveespatrolling the Israeli side of the border fence. The ambush left three soldiers dead. Two Israeli soldiers were abducted and taken by Hezbollah to Lebanon. Five more were killed in Lebanon, in a failed rescue attempt. Hezbollah demanded the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in exchange for the release of the abducted soldiers. Israel refused and responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on targets in Lebanon. Israel attacked both Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade. Hezbollah then launched more rockets into northern Israel and engaged the IDF in guerrilla warfare from hardened position’

Moreover at the end of the first paragraph of the above link you can read the following:

‘Due to unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah before and during the war, some consider it the first round of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, rather than a continuation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.’

In section ‘Contacts with Hezbollah’ of the following Wikipedia link, you can read the following:

‘Russian intelligence agencies have a history of contacts with Lebanese Shia organizations, such as Amal Movement and Hezbollah Russian-made anti-tank weapons played significant role in Hezbollah operations against Israel Defense Forces during 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict. It was claimed that "Russian Fajr-1 and Fajr-3 rockets, Russian AT-5 Spandrel antitank missiles and Kornet antitank rockets"have been supplied to Hezbollah through Syria and Iran Muslim

Page 47: Oil Wars

GRUdetachments from Chechnya were transferred to Lebanon independently of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon to guard the Russian military engineers (sent to Lebanon to restore the damaged roads) and "to improve Moscow’s image in the Arab and Muslim world.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_the_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict#Contacts_with_Hezbollah

In section ‘Arab League’ of the following Wikipedia link you can read:

‘The Arab League has called Hezbollah's attacks on Israel "unexpected, inappropriate, and irresponsible acts," in the words of Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, PrinceSaud Al-Faisal. The Arab League says they have “fears of widening of tension and possible Israeli strike against Syria,“ “It’s up to the resistance — both the Lebanese and the Palestinian — to decide what they are doing and why are they fighting.

Following a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo on 16 July, Secretary-General Amr Moussa declared that "The Middle East process is dead" and that "The only way to revive the peace process is to take it back to the Security Council’.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Arab_League

At section United States of the following Wikipedial link you can read:

‘Following the Zar'it-Shtula incident, the United States government condemned what it called Hezbollah's "unprovoked act of terrorism", and called for the "immediate and unconditional release" of the soldiers.

The United States rushed a delivery of satellite and laser-guided bombs to Israel, at Israel's request. The shipment was not publicly announced.

In addition, the United States has thus far rejected what it considers to be meaningless calls for a cease-fire . "The Bush administration has openly rejected calls for a ceasefire. The New York Times reports that U.S. and Israeli officials have agreed the bombings will continue for another week. "On Tuesday [18 July 2006] Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rejected an immediate ceasefire and said one could only occur once certain conditions are met.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0United_States

At section Iran of the following Wikipedia link you can read:

Page 48: Oil Wars

‘Foreign ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi condemned Israel's response stating, "The Zionist regime is desperate because of the resistance put up by regional Muslim nations and is now resorting to blind tactics against the innocent people of Lebanon with full US backing."[27] Iran also adds that an Israeli attack against Syriawould be considered an attack against the entire Muslim world and it would bring about a "fierce response."[28] Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, quoted by the Iranian News Agency, said "The Zionists think that they are victims of Hitler, but they act like Hitler and behave worse than Genghis Khan.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iran

At section Iraq of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Iraq condemned the Israelis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iraq

Even though the pipelines were good for Iraq, since Iraq could export its oil to South Asia bypassing Iran, Iraq condemned Israel. The reason is that after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, an Iraq had a Shiite governemnt, and even though it was pro-American, it was very closely cooperating with the Shiites of Iran, and Iraq did not feel that there was any need to bypass its ally.

At section Russia of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Russia condemned the Israelis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Russia

However for the Russians things were more complicated than the Iranians, because the Russians were of course against the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, but I do not think that they were against the Ceyhan-Haifa four leg pipeline, since Russia and Turkey are very well connect with pipeline networks, because Russia is the main natural gas supplier of Turkey, and Russia could use the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline to sell its own natural gas.

There is already the Blue Stream natural gas pipeline that connects Russia and Turkey under the Black Sea, and they are planning the construction of the Blue Stream 2 pipeline, that would connect Samsun to Ceyhan as you can see on the following 2 maps.

Page 49: Oil Wars

Source:http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Turkey-Israel-to-build-Mediterranean-pipeline-2498862.php

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Stream

Page 50: Oil Wars

Therefore the Russians could sell to the whole region their natural gas through the route Samsun-Ceyhan and Ceyhan-Haifa. However this is back in 2006, and the problems in the American-Israeli relations are not present yet nor is the Israel-Russia rapprochement, and therefore the Russians have to support their traditional allies i.e. Syria, Iran and Lebanon.

It is therefore quite simple to explain the Middle East wars if you look at the oil and natural gas that is always hidden in the background of these wars. However the Israelis have some problems of their own with Lebanon, since their natural gas supplies are near the Israeli-Lebanese borders, and the Lebanese claim that a part of these natural gas reserves belong to them as you can see at the following two maps.

Source:http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/07/120703-israel-new-natural-gas/

Page 51: Oil Wars

Source:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139069/yuri-m-zhukov/trouble-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea

Therefore the Israelis and the Lebanese, besides all the disputes I have mentioned so far, have the natural gas disputes too. However it is mainly Iran that owns Hezbollah, since it is Iran that provides for Hezbollah funding and weapons, and it is on Iran’s orders that Hezbollah acts. Iran has done with Hezbollah, what Qatar has done in Gaza with Hamas. Qatar owns Hamas. It provides its funding and weapons and through this funding Hamas managed to provide financial support to the people of Gaza and won the elections in 2006, and did not conduct other elections since that time.

Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the northern border of Israel, Qatar bought Hamas at the Southern borders of Israel (Gaza). For the relationship between Qatar and Hamas and Iran and Hezbollah you can simply google ‘Qatar Hamas’ and ‘Iran Hezbollah’ to find hundreds of articles.

The main dispute between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is natural gas. Israel is trying to provide an alternative source of natural gas to Europe, either through Cyprus and Greece or by liquefying its natural gas and exporting it with ships. Iran and Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and Israel is closer to Europe and would provide a

Page 52: Oil Wars

cheaper alternative even though it has far less reserves, and why not in Africa too. Recently I wrote an essay about the 15 billion dollar natural gas agreement between Israel and Jordan.

Therefore even though the Shiite Muslims of Iran and the Sunni Muslims of Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world in natural gas reserves, and therefore hate each other as we can see with the war in Syria and Iraq now, they both do not want Israel to provide an alternative to the natural gas markets of Europe and Africa, with the help of other Mediterranean countries too, like Egypt, Greece and Cyprus. This is the reason Qatar is pushing so hard for the Muslim Brotherhood to come back to power in Egypt, since the Brotherhood is under its influence. With the Muslim Brotherhood in power Qatar could ensure that Egypt would not undercut its prices.

Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the Israeli-Lebanese borders (black circle in the following map), Qatar bought Hams in Gaza (blue circle), and in the same way the Sunni Muslim terrorists of Hamas take orders from Qatar and Turkey, the Shiite Muslim terrorists of Hezbollah take orders from Iran. Therefore Qatar and Iran can use Hamas and Hezbollah to launce energy wars on Israel whenever they want.

As you can read at the following article, Hamas and Hezbollah had very good relations, until the great war between the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the Shiite Muslims of Iran and Iran broke out, as I was saying in my essay ‘The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia’.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/islamists/article/the-marriage-and-divorce-hamas-and-hezbollah

Page 53: Oil Wars

Source:http://www.nektarinanonprofit.com/2012/03/israel.html

Therefore it can be seen that the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006 was another hot energy war, in the sequence of the hot and cold energy wars taking place in the Middle East for the last one hundred years. Any analysis about the wars in the Middle East that is not based on oil and natural gas is always totally inadequate.

The following Financial Times article of 21st Mai 2014, reported that Israel was very close to signing agreements with Egypt and Jordan for exporting Israeli natural gas to these countries, from Leviathan, Israel's largest natural gas field.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02ea38aa-e0e2-11e3-a934-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl

At the following article of Haaretz, which is as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Israel’s oldest newspaper, and its English version is published with the New York Times,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haaretz

Page 54: Oil Wars

it was reported on 30 June 2014 that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Egypt 30 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years. That is 2 billion dollars of natural gas each year, and it amounts to 20% of Leviathan’s capacity.

http://www.haaretz.com/business/.premium-1.601980

At the following article of the Times of Israel, an electronic newspaper that is published in 3 languages, it was reported on 3 September 2014, that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Jordan 15 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-signs-15-billion-gas-deal-with-jordan/

What happened in the time between the Financial Times article on 21 Mai 2014, which reported that Israel was close to signing the agreements and the Haaretz article on 30 June, which reported the actual 30 billion dollar agreement between Egypt and Israel?

Well what happened is that the 3 Israeli teenagers were abducted by Hamas on 12 June 2014, as you can read at the first line of the following Wikipedia link, in section “Immediate Events”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict#Immediate_events

At the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that on 7 July 2014, one week after the agreement between Israel and Egypt, Hamas took responsibility for the teenagers’ abductions and at the same time it launched 40 rockets to Israel. One day later, on the 8 July 2014, the Israeli army entered Gaza.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict

It is well known that Hamas is funded by Qatar. Hamas won the elections in 2006 by providing financial help to the people of Gaza. In a sense Qatar bought a military camp at the Israeli borders. Qatar is the 3rd richest country in the world in terms of proven natural gas reserves, after Russia and Iran, and could have easlily provided the natural gas to Egypt and Jordan instead.

One of the main reasons that Qatar funded and wholeheartedly supported the Muslim Brootherhood candidate in Egypt, Muhammad Morsi, is that if Morsi was in power he would have never made a deal with Israel, since the Muslim Brotherhood is supported by Qatar.

At the following Wikipedia link, section ‘Aftermath’, 2-3 lines before the end of the section, where the consequences of the Arab Spring on the Egypt-Israel 1978 Peace Agreement are examined, you can read that the deputy chief of the Muslim Brotherhood said that the Brotherhood does not recognize Israel’s right to exist.

Page 55: Oil Wars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Israel_Peace_Treaty#Aftermath

At the following BBC article you can read how much Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its candidate Morsi. In the 6th and 7th paragraph you can read that Qatar did not give all that money for nothing, but instead to make sure that Egypt would buy natural gas from Qatar. I copy these two paragraphs.

“....But this was not a charitable giveaway. It was in the nature of an investment. A Qatari economist told the BBC: "We couldn't stand by and let Egypt collapse", but the billions came with an expectation - "I'll give you the money, show me the outcome," he said.

The Qataris had already secured a lucrative deal to sell their gas to the Egyptians and they were proposing to heavily invest in the redevelopment of the Suez Canal...”.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23185441

Many socialists that are financed by Qatar say that the Brotherhood was democratically elected. As you can read in the 3rd paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, as soon as he was elected, Morsi started changing the law to rule as a dictator. I copy from the link.

“…As president, Morsi granted himself unlimited powers and the power to legislate without judicial oversight or review of his acts….”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Morsi

Moreover you can read at the following Haaretz article that the Israelis have agreed to sell to the Palestinian Authority in West Bank 1.2 billion dollar in natural gas. But this is a small amount compared to the 45 billion dollar deals with Egypt and Jordan, and Qatar would have not probably minded. As you can see the deal was singed in January 2014 and there was no war in Gaza. It was before the agreements with Egypt and Jordan that the war broke out. Nobody starts a war for 1.2 billion dollars.

http://www.haaretz.com/business/1.567216